Kerry's Framework Proposal could be Explosive

by Shlomo Cesana, Mati Tuchfeld, Daniel Siryoti, Eli Leon and Yoni Hirsch

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to present a framework proposal to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas later this week • PMO: At no stage was there an agreement to free Israeli Arab prisoners.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry [Archive] | Photo credit: Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO

Following Israel's release of 26 Palestinian prisoners on Monday night and ahead of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's expected arrival in Israel later this week, U.S. officials are projecting optimism for the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian peace talks entering the last stage of a nine-month negotiating window that opened in July.

"What we're focused on right now is the secretary's trip this week, working on the framework, working to narrow the gaps, and we'll just move forward from there," said State Department deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf on Monday.

Kerry is expected to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday as he works on hammering out a framework agreement. 

But the Palestinians are less hopeful than the Americans. One Palestinian official in Ramallah told Israel Hayom, "We are not optimistic about the chances of Kerry's success."

After the third installment of the prisoner release Monday night, both sides are beginning to prepare for the fourth and final installment, in which 26 more prisoners will be freed. Despite rumors that the fourth release will include Israeli Arab prisoners, the Prime Minister's Office stated on Monday that "at no stage was there an agreement about the release of Israeli Arabs."

The third installment included terrorists who are Jerusalem residents, but not Israeli citizens. Israel has said that in the fourth round of the prisoner release, it will also only release noncitizens. Any release of Israeli Arabs would be brought by Netanyahu to the cabinet for approval. 

Political tension in Israel is building ahead of Kerry's visit, as the secretary of state is expected to propose a framework deal that will likely include factors problematic for Israel. According to a coalition official, "The American document may be more explosive than what people think, and that may shuffle the deck in the political system."

During a Likud faction meeting on Monday, ministers and MKs asked Netanyahu for his thoughts on the American document. However, aside from presenting the American positions, for example on the Jordan Valley issue, Netanyahu refrained from detailing what Israel would and would not be prepared to accept. "A diplomatic agreement will be signed only if [our] vital interests are guaranteed, chief among them our security and their demilitarization," Netanyahu said.

"Only if Israel remains the nation state of the Jewish people, and only if the Palestinians give up the dream of return and their other demands within the territory of the Jewish state -- only then can we reach an accord," he added. "True leadership is tested by the ability to make decisions, tough as they may be. We were not elected to lead the State of Israel to make easy decisions." 

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon also commented on the peace negotiations on Monday, saying, "In life, everything is a question of alternatives. If the alternatives are a European boycott or rockets from Nablus and from Jenin and from Ramallah on our strategic front, on Ben-Gurion International Airport -- then indeed a European boycott is preferable."

Meanwhile, another Qassam rocket fired from the Gaza Strip exploded in an open area in southern Israel on Monday. No injuries or damage were reported. 

PM will put forward reservations

Netanyahu is expected to agree to the American framework, but will raise reservations to various issues on which Israel and the U.S. hold opposing stances. If this is the case, then the diplomatic negotiations will continue for at least a few more months with the current coalition makeup. If Netanyahu decides to adopt the U.S. proposal despite the problematic clauses expected to be included in it, he will face dissent not only from his own Likud party, but also from Habayit Hayehudi.

Meanwhile, the Saudi newspaper Al Watan reported that Kerry is expected to make a significant addition to the framework agreement: Israel will recognize the 1967 borders as a basis for the establishment of the Palestinian state, in return for recognition by the Palestinians of Israel as a Jewish state. According to Palestinian sources, this will constitute the heart of the agreement. 

Bennett: If there is no Palestinian partner, we'll try for peace with aliens

A day after the Ministerial Committee for Legislation's approval of the Jordan Valley sovereignty bill, the political storm caused by the decision continued to grow, with differences of opinion within the coalition more pronounced than usual. 

Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, a strong opponent to the bill, said, "We were witness to a proposal designed to embarrass the government; however, these measures serve to embarrass not only those proposing them, but also those who support them."

There was also public disagreement between Livni and Economy and Trade Minister Naftali Bennett over the peace talks. Following Livni's statement that "the question is not whether there is a partner. We need to set a goal and to act, and if there's no Palestinian partner we must make peace with the world," Bennett wrote on his Facebook page: "The next step -- if there's no Palestinian partner -- is that we'll try for peace with aliens."

Shlomo Cesana, Mati Tuchfeld, Daniel Siryoti, Eli Leon and Yoni Hirsch

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=14393

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