by Barry Rubin
It makes sense that the
Israel-Palestinian agreement is being made with Obama and Kerry in
charge. The deal offers a kind of neo-mandate, with an American presence
entrenched in the Jordan Valley for the next 10 years. That’s no joke.
Let’s look at a different but parallel
“pacification” effort and see what happened there. The Afghanistan
peace talks with Taliban have gone absolutely dreadfully, and President Karzai is very dissatisfied. The results are–not surprisingly–unsatisfactory.
Let’s consider casualties in that case and a couple of others.
As of the end of 2013, roughly 3,000
Western troops have been killed in Afghanistan. Western forces will
retreat with their tails between their legs and will probably abandon
the government to horrible massacres and long wars following a Taliban
victory.
Since the start of the ongoing civil
war in Syria, there have been about 200,000 casualties–mostly civilians.
A truly staggering number.
The population of the West Bank is
about 3.1 million; if losses will be proportional to those in
neighboring nations, the cost of American soldier’s lives would be high.
So, if the Obama/Kerry peace deal does go through, what would the risks be?
- Dozens of Israeli civilians would be at risk of being killed by cross-border Palestinian-Arab and Islamist terrorist attacks, even if the settlements did not exist.
- And of course, how fast would U.S. troops respond to such attacks?
- Might there be an intifada in Jordan, a neighboring country with a Palestinian majority and a very strong Muslim Brotherhood opposition?
- Remember too that the peace treaty would be incomplete, unable to involve the Hamas-led Gaza Strip. And incomplete peace treaties cannot stand.
In the Gaza Strip, there are more than
1.6 million people under the rule of Hamas. This government will do
everything it can to sabotage the peace process. And U.S. help to the PA
will be presented as collaboration with the infidels. There is no
possibility of their participation in this agreement. That means that
even in the best of circumstances, even if the PA is at peace with
Israel, Hamas will be in an ongoing war with Israel.
So what great advantage is peace with the West Bank and war with Gaza?
It is predictable that Hamas will
attempt to carry out cross-border raids and fire missiles at Israel.
What is the U.S. position on that? Is the United States at war with
Hamas? CIA director John Brennan, the architect of Obama ideology,
publically–but not officially–has said that he wants to make peace with
Hamas.
Is the PA going to cooperate with
Hamas or at least radical segments of the PA? Remember during the Second
Intifada, from 2000 to 2005, Fatah did cooperate with Hamas.
Moreover, if Fatah were to change its
policy, it might get support from countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, and so on. Turkey, for example–which is now a conduit for the
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, and al-Qa’ida obtaining arms–knows
that most of its policy with the Arabs will be dependent on its degree
of support to the Palestinians, including cooperation if there is a
Palestinian state. The fact is that Turkey has pinned its hopes on Turkish influence in the Arab world,
and to associate with aggressive support of Palestine would be key to
its popularity. What if aid from Turkey and these other countries
prepares Palestine to fight?
What is the United States, an ally
with Israel, going to do if Palestine is created by its own agreement
but wages a war of terrorism against Israel?
By the way, let’s remember that
Mahmoud Abbas will probably be replaced in the next few years. It is
very hard to predict whom he will be replaced by, but the most popular
candidate is a serious hardliner.
Shaykh Abd al-Muhsin al-Mutairi
stated, “Oh servants of Allah, how saddening and very painful it is to
see many Muslim youths glued to TV screens at cafes or at home,
passionately watching entertainment shows, like the Football World Cup,
in despicable subjugation to the abominations of the other nations–as if
we were not a nation with a brilliant history and a lofty
civilization.”
And guess who they blame?
“The Jews were successful in
preoccupying the Muslim youth–except those protected by Allah–with the
most inane matters, distracting them from important things…”
It is important to understand that
millions of people believe this–thoroughly and completely–and can be
motivated by these kinds of arguments to the point of killing or
supporting terrorism. This is reality; even if it is not unanimous, it
is a major motive. If you don’t understand that a majority of people in
the Arab-Islamic world believe this, you cannot understand this is the
majority view. Certainly Obama and Kerry do not understand this.
So, what are the potential issues that stem from this mindset?
- Any Muslim killed by a Christian American soldier will be a reason for revenge. This is to engage in a blood feud. Even if a terrorist band has captured a kindergarten and shot children, there will be sympathy in the streets among Arabs and Muslims. If Palestinians are killed by Americans, there will be retaliation.
- A terrorist attack at a Kansas airport, Boston, or Fort Hood would be viewed as justification for causalities in Palestine.
- Remember that the prospects for Arab terrorist movements are much better than Afghan ones, because they have many weapon suppliers–including Libya, Lebanon, al-Qa’ida, Syria, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
- Also, in comparison with populated Afghan villages, Palestinians are concentrated in villages and small towns. Let us consider the American patrol knocking down doors in Jordan Valley towns.
In short, an Israeli-Palestinian peace
agreement is not going to be a picnic. Hamas and likely Fatah as well
will attempt to kill Americans and commit terrorism. Forget Iranian
nuclear weapons; this will be a war of AK-47s and rockets from Gaza.
Does Obama Care?
This is definitely a war in which
America will get bogged down, or the United States may stay a few years
and leave. Just look at the situation in Afghanistan–either this
agreement will never be implemented or it will be a disaster.
Barry Rubin
Source: http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/12/why-the-israeli-palestinian-agreement-is-absurd/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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