by Yoav Limor
A little over a week
into Operation Protective Edge, now that a cease-fire proposal is
officially on the table, it is time to take stock of the events thus
far.
Israel's achievements
include, first and foremost, Iron Dome, whose success contributed
significantly to that fact that there were zero casualties on the
homefront, which in turn gave decision-makers precious political and
military leeway.
Israel was also able to
successfully thwart Hamas' various operational surprises -- terror
tunnel attacks, maritime infiltration attempts, and sending drones over
Israel -- and thanks to precise intelligence, the Israeli Air Force
targeted a relatively large number of weapon caches and rocket
launchers, destroying some 30 percent of them.
Israel has also been
able to illustrate to senior Hamas operative just what the "price of
losing" entails, by targeting their homes; it has been able to maintain
the disconnect between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as the unrest
felt across the latter over the past month was all but curtailed since
the operation began.
Hamas has also noted
some achievements during the past week. It has been able to maintain an
orderly command and control system on the ground despite the aerial
strikes, and most notably -- it has been able to maintain steady rocket
fire at Israel, which appeared to be scaled according to a set plan of
attack.
This plan included
firing rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, which first became part of the
cycle of violence during 2012's Operation Pillar of Defense, and
introducing Haifa to the current cycle as well, effectively threatening
five million Israelis and several strategic facilities, such as the Ben
Gurion International Airport and the Dimona Negev Nuclear Research
Center.
The past week's
fighting is also likely to extract Hamas from the civilian-economical
siege imposed on it, as any cease-fire agreement will probably include a
gradual opening of the Egyptian side of Rafah crossing.
When considering what
Israel has been unable to achieve, one must note that, despite the
debilitating blow dealt to rocket launchers, the scope of rocket fire
has yet to be significantly reduced. Israel also refrained from using
the operation to cripple the Hamas tunnel infrastructure completely, and
it has not been able to eliminate the Hamas and Islamic Jihad's
respective military leadership, as both went underground as soon as the
operation was launched.
It seems that in the
internal Israeli arena, a gap has formed between expectations from
Operation Protective Edge and its actual objectives.
Hamas, for its part,
has noted some major failures. It has failed to exact a price from the
Israeli homefront and it has not been able to carry out any sort of
significant terror attack. Hamas' efforts to galvanize the Palestinian
and Arab streets have failed, as have its attempt to see Qatar mediate a
cease-fire instead of Egypt.
Moreover, the
international community refrained from truly interfering, affording
Israel significant leeway for a legitimate operation; even worse for
Hamas -- the past few days have seen some of the Palestinian population
in Gaza Strip turn against it.
The expectations in
Israel from Operation Protective Edge are to create significant,
long-term deterrence vis-à-vis Hamas that would prevent both rocket fire
and terror attacks, as well as to see it significantly struggle to
overcome the blow dealt to its operational infrastructure.
The latter depends not
only on the force of the blow Israel deals Hamas, but also on Egypt's
efforts to curb the smuggling of weapons and weapons-manufacturing
machinery from Sinai into Gaza.
The Israeli hopes that
the Palestinian unity government would crumble in the wake of the Gaza
campaign are unlikely to be realized, as any move by Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to that effect would label him a
traitor in the eyes of the Palestinians.
Hamas, no doubt,
expects to see a protracted lull that would allow it to reconstitute its
operational, financial and operational infrastructure. To this end, it
needs Egypt to keep the Rafah crossing open and it needs the PA to
transfer the funds necessary to pay Hamas employees in Gaza Strip.
Still, Hamas' hopes
that Egypt's hostility toward it would ease are likely to prove false,
as Cairo sees Hamas as its enemy. Egypt would mostly likely keep
tormenting Hamas, and it is highly unlikely that Egypt would abide its
rearmament efforts.
Israel is concerned
that Egypt would, at some point, alleviate its pressure on Hamas. It is
also concerned of potential erosion in deterrence and the resumption of
rocket fire on the south, as well as the possibility that the
international community may seek to investigate incidents involving
civilian Palestinian casualties. To rebuff the latter, the IDF has
initiated an inquest into these incidents, intending to present its
findings to international panels, should they be requested.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=9137
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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