by Zalman Shoval
The U.S.'s strategic considerations do not have to account for threats from Canada or Mexico, but Israel does not have the luxury of dismissing Middle East dynamics, even when it concerns countries with which it has peace treaties -- and especially with regards to a pan-Arab army that includes nations with which such treaties do not exist.
One of the direct
results of the changes in the United States' policies in the Middle
East, especially the change in its relationship with Iran, is a growing
concern among the U.S.'s Arab allies that they can no longer trust it
when it comes to their defense and security.
This, compounded by the
chaos sparked in the Middle East by the rise of the Islamic State group
and Syria's uncertain future, is the driving force behind the Arab
League's rather urgent decision to form a special military force.
Two weeks ago, the top
military commanders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait and the
Persian Gulf emirates met in Cairo and decided to form a joint military
command. The heads of these various Arab states will have to decide on
the next step in this venture by the end of June, and it is safe to say
that not everyone in Washington is thrilled by the prospect of this
strategic Arab initiative, if only due to the fact that it clearly
demonstrates the Arab world's reservations over Washington's policies on
Iran and the impending nuclear deal.
Washington's response
was dual-faceted. Officially, the administration welcomed the decision,
while unofficially it has signaled to the various Arab nations that
their military alliance is unnecessary, because the U.S. has no
intention of turning its back on the Middle East and plans to
demonstrate its commitment by supplying the various Arab armies with
advanced weapons and military technology.
The Washington Times,
which is known for having top sources in the American defense
establishment, reported last week that the administration is considering
supplying the Saudis and several Gulf states with advanced weapons, the
likes of which have so far only been offered to Israel.
France also recently signed a large arms deal with Qatar.
The possible diplomatic
and security ramifications of these deals for Israel are clear, and
they are both positive and potentially negative.
From a positive
outlook, it appears Israel's concerns over the impending nuclear deal
between the West and Iran are shared by the U.S.'s Sunni allies, thus
creating a united front, albeit not an official one, comprising
Jerusalem, Riyadh, Cairo, Amman and others. What U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry called "hysteria" is nothing but the region's sober view of
the Iranian threat.
Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu addressed the regional consensus in a recent speech marking
the 70th anniversary of the allied victory over the Nazis, saying this
alliance may also help promote a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict.
In this regard, one
should remember that even if the issue remains theoretical at this
point, one of Israel's fundamental demands for the inception of an
independent Palestinian state is that on top of being a demilitarized
entity it will also be barred from pursuing military deals with other
nations.
Israel, however, cannot
ignore the fact that the unstable reality in the Middle East means that
the plan to form a pan-Arab coalition of this nature has negative
potential.
Washington has vowed
that bolstering the Arab nations' military abilities will not undermine
Israel's strategic qualitative edge -- a pledge the U.S. is bound to
keep, as per a 2008 Congress resolution -- but history has taught us
that this promise is not without its weak spots.
The U.S.'s strategic
considerations do not have to account for threats from Canada or Mexico,
but Israel does not have the luxury of dismissing Middle East dynamics,
even when it concerns countries with which it has peace treaties -- and
especially with regards to a pan-Arab army that includes nations with
which such treaties do not exist.
An Arab coalition that
seeks to stop Iran and its proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Sinai and Yemen
from expanding Tehran's regional influence is a welcome development, as
long as we remember that even what appears to be steadfast and permanent
may prove fleeting.
Zalman Shoval
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12545
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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