by Prof. Eyal Zisser
The Russians and the Iranians are already openly speaking about the up-and-coming "new Middle East" with Syria as a cornerstone.
The vision of the
dreamers among us -- who saw two decades ago how our region was changing
into the "new Middle East" -- is now taking shape before our eyes. No,
it's not a Middle East of peace, stability and prosperity, nor is it a
Middle East controlled by the United States. This is a Middle East of
instability and religious extremism, but more than that, it is a Middle
East in which the tone is set by Russia and Iran and the pace is
dictated by the knife-wielding attackers in the streets of Jerusalem.
The dream to establish a
new, good Middle East in our region was based on U.S. strength in the
1990s. The United States that defeated Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein and
later conquered his country, while at the same time pushing Iran into a
corner. Russia was a weak state at the time, barely standing on its own
two feet. American strength led Arab leaders to seek close relationships
with the U.S., and as late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat learned in
his day: The way into Washington and into the Americans' hearts is
through a peace deal with Israel.
But a lot of water has
run through the Jordan River since then, and peace did not take root,
certainly not in the heart of the Arab street, nor did it save the Arab
world from its troubles or stop religious extremism from spreading. And
meanwhile, the United States has grown tired and decided to disconnect
from the region for the moment -- in any case, it has already lost much
of its power to exert influence or to dictate what happens there.
But there is no vacuum
in our region -- the Americans' spot has already been filled with the
Russian-Iranian alliance. And that is how the axis of evil of yesteryear
became the central axis underlying the region today. The Russians are
increasing their involvement and control in Syria, and Iran is doing the
same in Iraq. And Egypt is not hiding its desire to become a part of
this axis, as it is upon it -- and not the United States -- that the
survival of many Arab regimes now depends.
Israel is not a natural
nor a desired partner in the Russian-Iranian alliance that is now
trying to impose itself upon the Middle East, but, at least as far as
the Russians are concerned, it is also not an opponent or an enemy.
Russia is looking to push the Americans out of the region, and at the
same time to put an end to the religious extremism that may even come
knocking on Moscow's door.
The Russians understand
what Washington has yet to grasp -- that there is no connection between
the spread of the Islamic State group and the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, and that promoting an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement will
not stop the extremism and madness in the region. So the Russians are
focusing on their own issues, and they have not issued a condemnation of
Israel for working to restore calm to its cities.
But at the same time,
Russia is helping Iran increase its presence in the region. And Israel
and Iran are like Russia and the United States -- competing for
influence and status. So the struggle between them is difficult to
resolve and may even get worse.
The Russians and the
Iranians, and especially their allies in Hezbollah, and of course,
Syrian President Bashar Assad, are already openly speaking about the
up-and-coming "new Middle East" with Syria as a cornerstone, after the
Russians and the Iranians establish their presence and strike the Syrian
rebels. From there, they will move on to Iraq and maybe Lebanon as
well, and they will raise their status in Egypt -- and that is just the
beginning. Indeed, the United States is a strategic ally to Israel and
will continue to be so. The U.S. will come and go and will obviously
return in full force at some point. But for the next few years, the east
is red (the color of the former Soviet Union) and Moscow will likely be
the focal point.
The Russians, like the
Americans, will also learn with time that stopping radicalization and
extremism may be a task beyond their ken; and eliminating the Islamic
State may not even be an immediate goal for them, as the terrorist
organization's existence justifies their presence in the region. But
over the next few years, they will be the landlords here, and meanwhile
the U.S. State Department will continue to offer protest and to call for
calm, with no one outside the United States paying attention.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=14083
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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