by Reuven Berko
The growing Russian presence in Syria and the fact that Assad is still in power are direct byproducts of American inaction • But Putin's cooperation with Iran, which has aspirations to send troops to the Golan, could potentially get Russia into trouble.
The site of a Russian
airstrike in Syria, this week.
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Photo credit: AFP  |
Several days ago, a council of Islamic sages
-- representing the Sunnis -- protested against a recent deal between
the United States, Iran, Russia and Iraq's Shiite government. This deal
aims to preserve Iran's influence in Iraq and divide Syria into regions
of influence where Iran will establish a foothold while preserving
Syrian President Bashar Assad's rule. The council has good reason to
oppose this deal. The council represents the Sunni segment of Iraq's
population -- the victims of Iran's takeover of Iraq's administration
and some of its territory as a result of the American withdrawal.
Instead of rebuilding Saddam Hussein's army,
the Americans established -- at enormous cost -- a defeatist,
lackadaisical Iraqi army and a "democratic" puppet government that is
propped up by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. That is how they rewarded
the Iranians, who shout "Death to America," who plan and fund terror
attacks against the U.S. and who forced the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq.
Iran then took over Iraq and thus began a wave of persecution and
oppression against its Sunni inhabitants.
Rallying around loyalists from Saddam
Hussein's army, Iraq's Sunnis began a campaign of revenge attacks
against the Iranians. This group currently serves as the backbone of the
Islamic State group. It strikes at Iran's operatives in Iraq and at
Assad's troops and their collaborators from Hezbollah in Syria, and sows
death in various places around the world as well.
The Americans' misguided policy of rewarding
Iran, which they see as a "subcontractor" in the war against Islamic
State's terrorism, has generated an absurd situation: While the U.S. and
its Western allies bombard Islamic State in coordination with their
adversary Iran, U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf -- Saudi Arabia and
Qatar, and even Turkey, which is a member of NATO -- back their Sunni
Islamic State brothers, considered to be the only force capable of
stopping Iran.
The Americans are well aware of Iran's efforts
to take over the northern axis -- Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut
-- in order to use Hezbollah against Israel. They are also aware of the
Iranians' threats against Saudi Arabia and their subversive activity
against its allies in the Gulf on the southern axis -- in the Strait of
Hormuz, Yemen, Bab el-Mandeb and Bahrain -- following their takeover of
the strategic Abu Musa island in the Persian Gulf.
An obstacle to Sunni territorial contiguity
The reasons behind the U.S.'s mistakes in the
Middle East, which have caused regimes to collapse and sparked a
regional deterioration, are a mystery. One approach, which attributes
the damage to American naiveté and ignorance, has gained traction
recently, after it emerged that moderate rebels in Syria sold weapons
they received from the Americans to none other than Islamic State. It
was also American mistakes that ended up flooding the Middle East with
millions of refugees -- and restoring Russia's status as a superpower in
the Middle East and in Europe.
There is no doubt that the growing Russian
presence in Syria and their support for Assad, the murderer of his own
people, are a direct byproduct of American inaction, which failed to
remove Assad from power. Arab statesmen say that Russian President
Vladimir Putin's increasing strength in Syria is part of a future
package deal with the Americans -- a deal that will whitewash Putin's
takeover of the Crimean peninsula as he rescues Assad's regime -- which
he will then use to leverage his foothold in the Latakia port.
It is also becoming more evident that in the
division of Syria's "carcass" into Iranian spheres of influence, Iran
has been rewarded in a way that places Israel in peril. It appears that
Iran, not yet satisfied with the terrorism of Hezbollah, Hamas and
Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, is working on
creating a direct front with Israel on the Golan Heights.
Unlike Iran's religious motivation, Russia's
involvement in the conflict against Islamic State stems from pure
military interest, and presents an operative but solvable challenge for
the Israeli army. On the other hand, the Russian-Iranian connection is a
red flag for the Islamist opposition groups in Syria, which warn that
Russia will be defeated just as it was in Afghanistan. This being the
case, Iran will not be able to establish itself next to Israel on the
Golan Heights without creating conflict with Islamist opposition groups
and arousing active resistance in Jordan, the Gulf states and even in
Turkey, which secretly cooperated with Iran out of base economic
considerations. We should bear in mind that the Turks hope to crush the
Kurds and remove Assad, both of which pose an obstacle to the dream of
Sunni territorial contiguity from Turkey southward.
A zero-sum war
Should Iran gain U.S. consent-by-silence as a
further reward for its "good intentions" and establish itself in the
territory bordering the Israeli Golan Heights while it seeks to
"liberate Jerusalem," it will prove yet another obstacle for Turkey in
addition to Assad and the Russians. Such a development will not put an
end to the conflicts in disintegrating Syria. If the Iranians provoke a
conflict with Israel, they will find themselves far from home, between
the crushing Israeli army and a line of hostile Islamist forces in the
Beqaa Valley such as the Nusra Front and Islamic State that will block
its access to the Iranian-Iraqi-Shiite territories to the east.
An Iranian presence of this kind will be like a
finger on the trigger of a direct conflict with Israel. The instigation
of such a conflict will be up to Iran and Hezbollah, which refuse to
countenance any agreement with Israel. An Iranian presence along the
length of the Golan Heights alongside Assad's troops and Hezbollah on
the Lebanese border will create a menacing military contiguity (similar
to what the Iraqis did in 1973).
But this time, a conflict with Israel will get
the Russians into trouble as well. It will also put the Americans, who
are partners in alliances with the Arab states and with Israel, into a
situation of direct conflict -- and accelerate the flight of millions
more Syrians and Lebanese from their homes to Europe.
But there are also a few bright spots for Israel in the
bleak Middle Eastern mire, such as reduced likelihood that Arab states
will form a military coalition against us and the minimization of the
Palestinian problem. The zero-sum war between the Sunnis and the Shiites
has brought forward regional players who oppose Islamic State and Iran,
and Israel can use these players' help in resolving the Palestinian
problem as millions of refugees are absorbed in Arab states. Assad's
survival under Russian and Iranian auspices is better for us than a rule
of Islamic State, which, unlike Hamas and Hezbollah who mourn their
losses, bear no responsibility toward the Islamic population under their
rule, and are therefore undeterrable.
Reuven Berko
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=28633
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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