by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Islamic State fighters are busy battling the Syrian regime, but also other rival rebel groups in the area, some of which have ties with Israel
The skirmish this week
on the southern edge of the Syrian Golan Heights between the Israel
Defense Forces and Islamic State terrorists is a reminder for anyone who
forgot or ignored the fact that "Islamic State is already here," on
Israel's northern border, and has been for over two years.
In December 2014, one
of the rebel groups fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime on
the Golan Heights, the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, swore allegiance to
Islamic State. It has since joined forces with several other rebel
groups, and in May 2016 it named this united force the Khalid ibn
al-Walid Army. This force serves as Islamic State's southern arm in the
border triangle between Israel, Jordan and Syria, in the southern Golan
Heights. It controls a swathe of land spanning several hundred
kilometers, where tens of thousands of people live.
Like Hezbollah, which
maintains a presence in the northern sector of the Golan Heights,
Islamic State in the southern sector is preoccupied with more pressing
matters than opening a front against Israel. Islamic State fighters are
busy battling the Syrian regime, but also other rival rebel groups in
the area, some of which have ties with Israel. Thus, Islamic State has
preferred to keep a low profile along the border and avoid adding Israel
to its ever-growing list of enemies.
For Israel, however, it
was always clear that an organization such as Islamic State would
eventually exacerbate tensions along the border. After all, if the
organization ends its other conflicts with the upper hand, it can turn
its attention to Israel; but even if it loses, as is the case these days
in northern Iraq and eastern Syria, then it looks to act against Israel
in an attempt to win points and boost the waning morale among its
supporters.
At this junction, it is
unclear whether this week's incident with Islamic State was isolated,
stemming from a decision or perhaps even errant judgment call by local
commanders, or a new policy dictated from higher up. The IDF's harsh
response, which included an airstrike on an Islamic State outpost, even
if it was empty, was a clear message that Israel has no intention of
being dragged into a fight with Islamic State, or into the civil war
raging in Syria. At the same time, however, it will not come to terms
with any attempts to disturb the quiet along the border.
The incident on the
Golan Heights once again confronts Israel with the dilemma it has faced
since the onset of the war in Syria. What will best serve Israeli
interests: a victory for Assad or a victory for his enemies, Islamic
State included? Perhaps Israel's best interest is for the war to
continue, even if that means an Islamic State presence on the border.
However, the war in
Syria could be headed toward a decision sooner than anticipated in
Israel. In recent weeks, Assad and his allies, the Russians and
Iranians, have made strides on the battlefield. They are on the verge of
taking Aleppo, the country's second-largest city, and in other areas
the rebels are giving up and surrendering territory to the Syrian
regime.
Adding to this momentum
is the refreshing new wind blowing from Washington, where
President-elect Donald Trump has said that America must focus on
defeating Islamic State, in conjunction with the Russians, rather than
on toppling the Assad regime.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=17769
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