by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Israel used missiles instead of planes in several of these attacks to avoid unnecessary friction with the new sheriff in town, Russia.
Over the past several
weeks we have seen reports in the Arab media, which have been
corroborated by official government mouthpieces in Damascus, that Israel
has renewed its airstrikes in Syria. Allegedly, Israeli warplanes --
and for the first time ground-to-ground missiles fired by Israel -- hit
weapons shipments on Syrian soil, travelling from Iran to Hezbollah in
Lebanon.
Israel has not formally
commented on the reports. Meanwhile, according to Defense Minister
Avigdor Lieberman's message to European diplomats, quite possibly
intended for ears in Moscow in any event, Israel is acting on its right
to protect its citizens but has no intention whatsoever of intervening
in the war in Syria. Translated into Hebrew, Israel has indeed targeted
and will continue target weapons shipments earmarked for Hezbollah, yet
has no intention of influencing the fighting in Syria and depriving the
Russians -- but the Iranians and Hezbollah as well -- of their impending
victory, which has come earlier than expected in the civil war that for
the past six years has ravaged our neighbor to the north.
After all, the attacks
attributed to Israel come amid the dramatic turn of events in the war in
Syria. Bashar Assad -- or more precisely his allies fighting on his
behalf -- is swiftly retaking Aleppo, the country's second-largest city.
The city's fall to Assad, who is backed by the Russian-Iranian axis,
will deliver a crushing blow to a rebel camp already in shambles. It
will provide momentum to the Syrian president, who is gradually
re-establishing his control over a significant portion of the country.
The end of the war in
Syria, if indeed the optimistic scenario for Putin and Assad
materializes, would undoubtedly slam shut Israel's window of opportunity
to pummel Hezbollah on Syrian soil, which had opened when the war
erupted. Israel, if the war were to end, would also face a reality it
would no longer be able to influence -- neither the Syrian map nor the
developments taking place there. Indeed, some in Israel hoped the
continued fighting in the country would help Israel establish its grip
on the Golan Heights and give it a bargaining chip with which to demand
that any agreement to end the war would also include a withdrawal of
Iranian and Hezbollah forces -- from Syria's north, center but also from
its southern region along the Israeli border.
Israel, in the meantime
(at least according to the foreign reports), is seemingly continuing to
attack targets in Syria despite the massive Russian presence there. The
Arab press has even reported that Moscow has tacitly agreed to these
attacks and has also demanded of Hezbollah that it not respond. Reports
to this effect have incensed Hezbollah's leaders, who
uncharacteristically rushed to deny their veracity. These reports do,
however, show that the Russian presence in Syria could also provide
certain benefits for Israel.
The Russian presence,
therefore, has not paralyzed Israel's ability to take action, though it
has made this action transparent for Moscow. In Israel this fact is
already being taken into account, evidenced by reports that Israel used
missiles instead of planes in several of these attacks to avoid
unnecessary friction with the new sheriff in town, Russia. In any case,
it is merely a drop in the ocean. Hezbollah's arsenal of over 100,000
missiles is the threat for which Israel must prepare.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=17845
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