by Prof. Eyal Zisser
The possibility that Russia may be able to -- strike a peace deal between the warring parties in Syria -- has Israel wary of the regional gains this may spell for Iran.
Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu's visit to Russia last week was dedicated to the Iranian
issue, or, more precisely, to Israel's red lines on any Iranian presence
in Syria if and when the six-year civil war there comes to an end.
The possibility that
Russia may be able to do the seemingly impossible and strike a peace
deal between the warring parties in Syria in the foreseeable future has
Israel wary of the regional gains this may spell for Iran.
Iran could have
significant influence in Syria and potentially even physical control of
the country, thanks to tens of thousands of operatives on the ground in
the form of Hezbollah members, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps'
soldiers, or Shiite militia fighters "imported" by Iran into Syria from
across the Middle East.
What the world can
expect from post-war Syria is reflected in recent reports of Iran's
plans to build a naval base in Tartus, the second largest port city in
Syria after Latakia, as well as in reports that Revolutionary Guard
units and Hezbollah forces are planning to overrun the Syrian Golan
Heights, to liberate it from the rebels and re-establish Syrian control
over the area -- a move that would effectively place Iranian forces on
the Syria-Israel border.
Iran, most likely, has
no interest in a direct conflict with Israel, but history has proved it
will use its proxies in Syria -- Hezbollah, Damascus-based Palestinian
terrorist groups, and various Shiite militias -- to do its bidding. This
means the immediate issue Israel must deal with is the Iranian and
Hezbollah presence in southern Syria, while the long-term issue is the
question of Iran's status in Syria in any deal in which Syrian President
Bashar Assad remains in power.
The campaign to liberate the northeastern Syrian city of Raqqa from Islamic State,
which is scheduled to begin in the next few days, stands to
significantly impact the Iranian presence in the country as well: If the
Turks and the Sunni Syrian rebels at their command take the city, or if
the Kurds, who have American assistance, do so, that will lead to the
creation of a buffer zone between Shiite Iraq and the rest of
Assad-controlled Syria. But if Assad's forces, with the help of Iranian
troops, are the ones to take Raqqa, Iran will be able to establish
control over a land axis spanning from Tehran through Iraq and eastern
Syria to Damascus and Beirut.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin most likely listened carefully to Netanyahu's warnings.
But for now, Russia is standing by its cynical alliance with Iran.
Tehran and Moscow desire first and foremost to cement Assad's control in
Syria, and the presence of Iranian and Shiite operatives in the country
is imperative to that end.
Netanyahu was wise to
make it clear to Putin that Israel is determined to maintain its
regional interests and will not allow anyone to cross its red lines,
even if Russia sees things differently.
Incidentally, this
dynamic was present in recent strikes against Syrian weapon shipments to
Hezbollah, which foreign media attributed to Israel. The Russians did
nothing to prevent these shipments, nor did they hide their disapproval
of the alleged Israeli efforts to thwart them, but the dialogue between
Jerusalem and Moscow over the past year resulted in Russia's acceptance
of Israel's position on the matter.
It is safe to assume
that Netanyahu's meeting with Putin sought to reach similar
understandings with regard to Israel's red lines over Iran and
Hezbollah's presence in the Golan Heights, and perhaps in other areas in
Syria as well.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=18589
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