by Yoav Limor
While the covenant between the Israeli Druze and the State of Israel is clear and unquestionable, Hader is an enemy village whose allegiance lies with Assad.
The
events in the Golan Heights last weekend are yet another reminder of
how easily Israel could be sucked into the civil war in Syria, even if
ostensibly nothing new happened. Tahrir al-Sham – a terrorist alliance
of radical Sunni rebel groups, predominantly the al-Qaida-linked Nusra
Front – perpetrated a suicide bombing against supporters of Syrian
President Bashar Assad in the Syrian Druze village of Hader. At no point
was Hader in danger of being taken over, but the incident threatened to
ignite the entire region.
The incident led the Druze in Israel to
believe their Syrian brethren were in danger. Community leaders acted on
two fronts, pressuring political and military leaders on the one hand
and sending Druze out to the street. Hundreds of youth arrived at the
border and even broke through the fence at a certain point. The Israel
Defense Forces were forced to adopt a two-pronged approach to ease the
tension: first by deterrence, warning Tahrir al-Sham that an attack on
Hader will not be tolerated, and second by reassuring both the Druze
community leaders and its youth that they have they IDF's protection,
convincing them to return to Israeli soil.
In this case, Israel is stuck between a
rock and a hard place. While the covenant between the Israeli Druze and
the State of Israel is clear and unquestionable, Hader is an enemy
village whose allegiance lies with Assad. In fact, Hezbollah cells have
been sent from the village to operate against the IDF. Supporting Hader,
therefore, would not just support the Druze, but help Assad in the
civil war in Syria.
On the other hand, refraining from aiding
Hader would not only be a slap in the face of Israeli Druze, some of
whom have relatives in Hader, but would also aid the rebels, in this
case, al-Qaida in the Golan. No one in Israel has any illusions about
what will happen if Hader is conquered and terrorists will be a stone's
throw away from Majdal Shams.
The Israeli decision was unambiguous. Just
like the last time it was feared the village would be captured, in 2014,
Israel made it clear last Friday that it would protect Hader as part of
its covenant with the Druze in Israel. This, however, should not be
taken to mean that the IDF intends to send ground forces into Syrian
territory. Israel dominates Hader topographically and could have stopped
the rebels from arriving by an aerial operation and long-range fire.
Even though Israel made a clear call, the
problem remains. All anyone who wants to drag Israel into the Syrian
civil war, or even just to undermine the close ties with the Druze
community, needs to do it attack Hader. This does not bode well
for Israeli strategy in Syria, as it takes some of the control over
events in the area away from Israel and places it in the hands of
irresponsible third-parties in the Golan Heights.
While the Syrian front eventually subsided
Saturday, at least temporarily, the Lebanese front heated up. Lebanese
Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation does not directly affect
Israel, but his resignation speech sounded as if it was taken straight
out of the Israeli government's book. He blamed Hezbollah and Iran in
meddling in internal Lebanese interests and disclosed an alleged
assassination attempt against him just a few days earlier.
There is no doubt Hariri fears he might be
assassinated, not only because that was the end his father, Rafik
Hariri, met in 2005, but also because he knows his rivals wells and
understands their motivations. This was not the first time he had
publicly denounce the Shiite axis and not only was it
personally brave, it was also a public call for the international
community to save Lebanon. Over the next few days, we will learn whether
he was acting independently or on behalf of his Saudi patron-partners.
Hariri's speech made things complicated for
Hezbollah: Not only did he hint that the Shiite terrorist organization
was responsible for the foiled attempt on his life and openly accuse it
of trying to usurp control of Lebanon, Hezbollah now stands to be blamed
for the political chaos that already simmering in Lebanon over the
prime minister's resignation. This means that instead of resting on its
laurels and recovering after the military victory in the Syrian civil
war, Hezbollah will be trapped in a new political quagmire in Lebanon.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place-2/
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