by Emil Avdaliani
For the first time, the route would physically link a range of Iranian allies: Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Assad regime in Syria; and the Iran-influenced government in Baghdad.
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 690, December 19, 2017
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Reports
emerged recently suggesting that Iran-backed forces are closer to
controlling the Syria-Iraq border. This would mean Tehran will now be
able to link up with its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. If this scenario is
correct, after 12 years of conflict in Iraq and another conflict in
Syria, Iran is steadily transforming into a more powerful geopolitical
player whose influence will be projected hundreds and maybe thousands of
kilometers beyond its borders.
In the early 620s CE, just before the Arab/Muslim
invasions of the Middle East, the Sasanian Shah, Khosrow II, besieged
Constantinople, the capital of Byzantium, with his large armies. His
forces had already occupied Egypt, Syria, Palestine, and other former
Byzantine lands. This was a momentous event in world history, as the
Iranians had not reached the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the
Achaemenid Empire in 330 BC.
However, the Iranian success proved short-lived.
Iranian ambitions were checked for the next 1,400 years, until hints
emerged recently that Iran-backed forces have moved closer to control
the Syria-Iraq border.
If this turns out to be accurate, this is an
exceptional moment. It means that at long last, Iran once again has a
contiguous land bridge from its territory, through northern Iraq and
Syria, right through to the Mediterranean coast.
The Iranians will be able to link up with their
foremost regional proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah. After 12 years of
conflict in Iraq and Syria, Tehran is transforming into a powerful
geopolitical player whose influence will be projected hundreds and maybe
thousands of kilometers beyond its borders.
Still, that is not the whole story. The route is
quite complex as it weaves across Arab Iraq, via Iraq’s Kurdish north,
into Kurdish northeastern Syria, and through the battlefields north of
Aleppo, where Russia, Iran, and their allies won an important battle
earlier in 2017.
In addition to the geographic dilemma, the Iranian
route could be threatened by independent actors. The Kurds of Syria,
who populate the northeast corner of the country and who operate
separately from the Kurds of Iraq, could forestall the nascent Iranian
corridor.
Despite the serious obstacles the corridor faces,
the development remains important. For the first time, the route would
physically link a range of Iranian allies: Hezbollah in Lebanon; the
Assad regime in Syria; and the Iran-influenced government in Baghdad.
The corridor was built up gradually over the
course of the Syrian civil war. Israel, always wary about any extension
of Iranian influence, has tried to employ a policy of prevention.
Israel has good reason to be worried, as the
successful operation of a contiguous Iranian route to the Mediterranean
would mean Tehran and Hezbollah can complement and strengthen each
other. Above all, Hezbollah not only lends military expertise to its
Iranian patron (as was seen on the Syrian battlefield), but also offers
Arabic-speaking leaders and operatives who are familiar with the Arab
world at large.
Putting the Iranian corridor in context
Geography is key to Tehran’s grand strategy.
Iran’s major population centers are surrounded by almost impregnable
mountains and deserts, as well as water barriers. To the west and
northwest are the Zagros Mountains, which separate Iran from
resource-rich and fertile Iraq. To the north, the Elburz Mountains and
Armenia’s mountainous lands have always served as a defensive shield.
The Caspian Sea in the north and the Arabian Sea in the south are yet
more impregnable barriers. To the east and northeast, the harsh climate
of Afghanistan and Pakistan, alongside Turkmenistan’s semi-barren steppe
lands, have kept Iran’s provinces more or less safe (except for
occasional attacks by nomadic peoples).
This mountainous and desert geography, while
defensively advantageous, has also limited the projection of Iranian
power abroad. Due to poor geographic conditions, it has never been
economically or militarily feasible to project Iranian power into
Central Asia, Afghanistan, or Pakistan. Strategically, the most
advantageous territory into which Iran can attempt to project its power
is the western frontier, or modern-day Iraq (Mesopotamia) – long rich
in population and natural resources, and therefore worth controlling.
This at least partially explains Iran’s ambitious corridor to the
Mediterranean.
History shows how crucial Iraq has been in Iran’s
calculus. Take, for example, the Achaemenid Empire, followed by Parthia
and the Sasanian State. They all hung onto Mesopotamia and even had
their capital, Ctesiphon, located along the Euphrates River near
modern-day Baghdad.
Iranians have always worried about a foreign
presence in the territories surrounding the Iranian plateau. Any foreign
influence close to the heart of Iran would represent a strategic
weakening of the state. This could also explain modern-day Tehran’s
behavior and great interest in Iraq.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-land-corridor/
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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