by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Seven years after the first protests, what should have been the Arab world's finest hour has become another nail in the coffin of Arabism.
Very
few people, if any, in the Arab world bothered to commemorate the
seven-year anniversary of the beginning of the Arab Spring. As a
reminder, in mid-December 2010 riots erupted in the streets of Tunisia,
which led to the collapse of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's regime.
Within a matter of weeks, the protests had spread like wildfire to
Egypt, Libya, Yemen and even Syria. In some of these countries, the
flames are still burning. But now they are the flames of jihad
and tyrannical all-out war against the people.
It appears that most people in the region, if given the choice, would erase those seven awful years from the history books and go back in time to the starting point. Instead of being a catalyst for prosperity and liberty, the "Arab Spring" has wrought only devastation and destruction and has set the Arab world back many years, with hundreds of thousands of dead and millions of wounded.
The chaos and bloodshed are a testament to the failures of those who allowed their own yearnings, faiths and personal worldviews to dictate their interpretations of the unfolding developments in the Arab world. Very few people foresaw the earthquake that struck the Arab world, but many rushed to adopt the interpretation assigned to it by the Obama administration: that the Arab Spring was akin to the American Revolution, certain to usher in a progressive, prosperous and democratic future.
When Israel looks at what is happening around it, what mistakes should be avoided?
First, the Arab Spring broke out after several decades of fictitious stability throughout the region. For Israel, this stability was convenient. The Jewish state viewed the iron-fisted regimes and rulers in these Arab countries and societies as intimate allies, and this relationship served Israel's short- and long-term interests. However, now we must realize that regional stability stands on shifting dunes, and realistically nothing has changed. Arab societies are still ill and mired in profound crisis. From this vantage point, a cautious approach is necessary.
Second, we live in the Middle East, not in Europe of the 1980s when Communism was crumbling. An outbreak of protest does not portend a "spring" of liberty and democracy, even if it is spearheaded and heralded – mostly on Western television – by Arab intellectuals who were educated in the West or on the knee of Western culture. The road to being a part of the free world or even resembling Russia, Iran and Turkey – where the populations accept the authority of the state and identify with it – is still long.
Third, fears of Islamist forces seizing control of the Middle East proved overblown. These forces enjoy significant support in Arab societies, but they are forces of destruction with the power to topple states. They cannot build and create a functioning state framework out of nothing. Such was the case with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and with Hamas and Islamic State.
Fourth, the Arab Spring did not deliver a damaging blow to Iran and Russia, which at the onset many people assumed would be the case. Quite the opposite – it shattered many of the obstacles blocking the path of these two allies and opened the gates for them into the heart of the Middle East. What should have been the Arab world's finest hour became another nail in the coffin of Arabism and incalculably improved Iran's and Russia's strategic footholds in the region.
It is important to note that Palestinian society is part of the Middle Eastern tapestry. Although many of us wish to assume that reality for the Palestinians is fundamentally different than for the surrounding societies, the same phenomena are visible. This, however, is a different discussion.
It appears that most people in the region, if given the choice, would erase those seven awful years from the history books and go back in time to the starting point. Instead of being a catalyst for prosperity and liberty, the "Arab Spring" has wrought only devastation and destruction and has set the Arab world back many years, with hundreds of thousands of dead and millions of wounded.
The chaos and bloodshed are a testament to the failures of those who allowed their own yearnings, faiths and personal worldviews to dictate their interpretations of the unfolding developments in the Arab world. Very few people foresaw the earthquake that struck the Arab world, but many rushed to adopt the interpretation assigned to it by the Obama administration: that the Arab Spring was akin to the American Revolution, certain to usher in a progressive, prosperous and democratic future.
When Israel looks at what is happening around it, what mistakes should be avoided?
First, the Arab Spring broke out after several decades of fictitious stability throughout the region. For Israel, this stability was convenient. The Jewish state viewed the iron-fisted regimes and rulers in these Arab countries and societies as intimate allies, and this relationship served Israel's short- and long-term interests. However, now we must realize that regional stability stands on shifting dunes, and realistically nothing has changed. Arab societies are still ill and mired in profound crisis. From this vantage point, a cautious approach is necessary.
Second, we live in the Middle East, not in Europe of the 1980s when Communism was crumbling. An outbreak of protest does not portend a "spring" of liberty and democracy, even if it is spearheaded and heralded – mostly on Western television – by Arab intellectuals who were educated in the West or on the knee of Western culture. The road to being a part of the free world or even resembling Russia, Iran and Turkey – where the populations accept the authority of the state and identify with it – is still long.
Third, fears of Islamist forces seizing control of the Middle East proved overblown. These forces enjoy significant support in Arab societies, but they are forces of destruction with the power to topple states. They cannot build and create a functioning state framework out of nothing. Such was the case with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and with Hamas and Islamic State.
Fourth, the Arab Spring did not deliver a damaging blow to Iran and Russia, which at the onset many people assumed would be the case. Quite the opposite – it shattered many of the obstacles blocking the path of these two allies and opened the gates for them into the heart of the Middle East. What should have been the Arab world's finest hour became another nail in the coffin of Arabism and incalculably improved Iran's and Russia's strategic footholds in the region.
It is important to note that Palestinian society is part of the Middle Eastern tapestry. Although many of us wish to assume that reality for the Palestinians is fundamentally different than for the surrounding societies, the same phenomena are visible. This, however, is a different discussion.
Prof. Eyal Zisseris a lecturer in the Department of Middle East History at Tel Aviv University
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/what-the-arab-spring-failed-to-do/
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