by Dr. Alon Levkowitz
The summits, according to Moon, will prevent or at least postpone Washington’s plan to conduct a surgical attack on North Korea, which could drag the Peninsula into a war no one wants.
Moon Jae-in, image via Wikipedia
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 780, March 26, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The
prospective Donald Trump-Kim Jong-un summit has caused the Western media
to focus primarily on Kim’s decision to initiate contact and Trump’s
agreement to meet. South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s role in
organizing and advocating for the summit has been largely ignored.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has tried since
his election to change his country’s policy towards North Korea. At
first, Kim Jong-un was unenthusiastic about Moon’s initiatives, because
they didn’t serve his interests. But once Kim had achieved credible
nuclear and missile capabilities, he felt willing to accept Moon’s
invitation to send a delegation to the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
North Korea’s next step, after the smiling
diplomacy that surrounded the Olympics, was to invite President Moon to a
Korean summit and call on US President Trump to meet with Kim.
One might have reasonably expected that North
Korea would send delegations to Washington to promote and coordinate the
latter summit – but it was Seoul, not Pyongyang, that has been its
coordinator and advocate.
President Moon did not only send delegations to
Washington. He sent his national security adviser to Tokyo, which is
concerned that it might pay the price of improved relations between
Pyongyang and Washington. Seoul also sent delegations to Beijing and
other capitals to counter objections of regional players and ensure that
the summit does not face external obstacles.
In essence, President Moon is doing Kim’s work for
him, because he knows Pyongyang can’t do it – and in any case, it
serves Seoul’s interests that the summits take place.
Moon believes the two summits will ease tensions
in the Korean Peninsula and promote cooperation between North and South.
The summits, according to Moon, will prevent or at least postpone
Washington’s plan to conduct a surgical attack on North Korea, which
could drag the Peninsula into a war no one wants.
In taking on the role of advocate for a Trump-Kim
summit, President Moon is risking his position in Washington and the
regional capitals. He is banking on the likelihood that the summits will
achieve better outcomes than can be achieved by either sanctions or the
“bloody nose” attack at which Washington has hinted. South Korea’s
endorsement of the summits raise expectations in both Washington and
Tokyo of what can be achieved. A failure of the Trump-Kim summit, or
even a Trump-Kim summit in which relatively little is achieved, will be
reflected in subsequent relations between Trump and Moon, and could lead
Washington towards a harsher policy against Pyongyang. The recent
nomination of John Bolton as US National Security Advisor will make
Seoul’s task even more challenging.
To maximize the likelihood of a successful summit,
President Moon should coordinate his efforts with Washington and Tokyo
as well as with Pyongyang.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/trump-kim-summit-view-seoul/
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