by Yoav Limor
Frustrated by its failed riots strategy, Hamas is no longer even pretending to stop attacks near the border fence. Israel is still open to negotiating a truce, but it has made it clear it will not shy away from a military confrontation in Gaza.
The
rapidly increasing pace of security incidents on the Israel-Gaza Strip
border does not bode well. At best, it indicates that Hamas is looking
for new ways to challenge Israel. At worst, it is the beginning of a
protracted escalation that could easily spiral out of control.
Israeli defense officials are monitoring
the situation closely, and the outlook is disturbing. If until the end
of 2017 there were only sporadic, mostly civilian incidents on the
border, now we are seeing daily events, including outright attacks
such as hurling firebombs and sending incendiary kites over the border
and placing explosives along the security fence.
It is doubtful Hamas is actively seeking a
full-fledged war, but it definitely wants to keep the struggle on the
border alive and kicking. Frustrated by the failure of the border riots
strategy it launched on March 30, Hamas has loosened the reins and it
no longer tries, or even pretends to try, to stop terrorist attacks on
the fence.
The explosive device planted on the border
Saturday by Islamic Jihad operatives is an example, as it is doubtful
this would have been done without Hamas' consent. If anything, the
border riots campaign has illustrated exactly how tight Hamas' grip is
on Gaza Strip.
At this point, Israel is still pacing its
response. The tank strike that killed jihadi operatives Sunday was a
tactical one and the Israeli Air Force's strike on Hamas posts in Gaza
was in line with the known rules.
It seems that both sides are wary of the
kind of operations that would lead to a full-blown war and, despite
their denials, are continuing to give serious thought to the
possibility of an Egyptian-brokered truce.
However, if those efforts fail, Hamas will
again find itself painted into a corner. For this reason, it aims to
preserve the tensions on the border, which can be used as a pretext for
an escalation, as well as a way to keep international public opinion
focused on Gaza.
Israel believes it still has significant
leeway against Gaza, as well as ways to generate significant
deterrence. This was one of the reasons the IDF decided to go public on
Sunday with its latest project: constructing a sea barrier off Zikim
beach, where a terrorist infiltration was foiled during Operation
Protective Edge in 2014.
The message to Hamas is clear. Israel
remains one step ahead and all the money and efforts Hamas has been
investing in terror tunnels and training divers are in vain.
Past experience has proved that news of IDF
obstacles is unlikely to sway Hamas, but that is not Israel's
concern. The faster the sea barrier is completed the better, and
hopefully it will plug this security hole before the next Gaza
campaign.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/hamas-prepares-for-all-scenarios-%e2%80%8e/
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