by Doron Feldman
The 12-point speech outlined the administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy against Iran, which strives to exert constant pressure on Tehran so as to goad it into a new nuclear deal.
Mike Pompeo, photo via Wikimedia Commons
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 844, May 23, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s speech on May 21, 2018 was an important
step in the realization of the Trump Doctrine. The 12-point speech
outlined the administration’s nuclear nonproliferation strategy against
Iran, which strives to exert constant pressure on Tehran so as to goad
it into a new nuclear deal.
Mike Pompeo’s assertive and exhaustive 12-point
speech of May 21, 2018 was an important step in the realization of the
Trump Doctrine. Speaking at the conservative Heritage Foundation, the
former CIA director unveiled the administration’s nuclear
nonproliferation strategy against Iran, which strives to exert constant
pressure on Tehran so as to goad it into a new nuclear deal without
resorting to armed force.
Contrary to the common assumption, Pompeo’s plan
does not reflect an explicit intention to bring about regime change in
Tehran, though the administration would surely not regret such an
outcome. Rather, the 12 demands, along with the threat of economic
sanctions, are part of Washington’s aggressive negotiation strategy and
are intended to increase Tehran’s fears that regime change might
eventually occur. The Trump administration hopes Tehran will be forced
to rethink its conventional and nuclear policies and agree to negotiate a
new nuclear agreement.
Pompeo’s speech indicates the Trump
administration’s determination to avoid repeating its predecessor’s
mistake of allowing Tehran to pursue its hegemonic ambitions well before
the attainment of nuclear weapons. All Iran did in concluding the JCPOA
was to reverse the order of its strategic priorities. Rather than
develop nuclear weapons as a precursor to pursuing its hegemonic goals,
it embarked on an immediate hegemonic drive, boosted by the hundreds of
billions of dollars won from the JCPOA. It did this with a view towards
developing its nuclear capabilities at a later stage to defend and
consolidate its military and political gains.
In view of Tehran’s ultimate strategy, the Trump
administration seeks to bring about the disintegration of all Iran’s
nuclear infrastructure and knowhow. It also requires that Tehran
withdraw from all its direct and indirect military intervention zones.
As part of this, the US administration will likely
demand that the final nuclear agreement include restrictions on Iran’s
regional expansion and its terrorist exports throughout the Middle East
and the world, as well as limitations on its ballistic missile
development program. Should Tehran accept the American demands, Pompeo
offers incentives in the form of US-Iranian normalization, the
reestablishment of full diplomatic relations, US support for
modernization of the Iranian economy, and the restoration of bilateral
economic ties.
The assumption is that Iran will refuse to comply
with all 12 of Pompeo’s demands in general and the administration’s main
demands in particular.
In his speech of withdrawal from the JCPOA,
President Trump warned Tehran that failure to comply with the American
demands would subject it to “the strongest sanctions in history.” The
object is to harm the Iranian economy and political functioning, but not
necessarily bring about the collapse of the regime.
The Trump administration will likely continue its
close cooperation with the anti-Iranian regional coalition with which it
has been working over the last few months. This coalition includes
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel, with which
there seems to be almost complete coordination on the Iranian issue.
Tehran thus faces deepening international isolation, continued Israeli
attacks on its bases in Syria, and mounting domestic restiveness over
economic and social distress.
The Trump administration believes that together
with its allies, it can productively ratchet up the many pressures on
Tehran. It can do this by exacerbating internal tensions and by
supporting passive and active popular protests in the country, even to
the point of arming minority opposition. Again, the US does not seek to
promote regime change in Iran or to reach the point of direct military
confrontation. The administration continues to adopt a patient,
determined, but conservative strategy backed by military and economic
capability aimed at forcing Tehran to reevaluate its objectives and
eventually acquiesce in the main American demands for curbing its
nuclear program and conventional expansion. Should events transpire in
this way, it would be very much in Israel’s interest.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/the-implications-of-mike-pompeos-12-point-speech/
Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
No comments:
Post a Comment