by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin's commitments to Israel's security, neither will do the job of removing Iran from Syria for it.
The
summit convened by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President
Vladimir Putin in Helsinki triggered bombastic headlines, mostly
negative, from the usual cadre of Trump detractors in the media; but
also from his supporters, who expected him to take a hard line against
Russia. Trump though, unrestrained by Cold War grudges, wasn't looking
for a fight, rather for cooperation.
In this vein, the two leaders were in
complete agreement over their commitment to Israel's security – each for
his own reason. This commitment isn't lip service – both Trump and
Putin demonstrate it in their own way: Trump, in the boundless support
and backing he provides Israel; and Putin, in the warmth and sympathy he
shows Jerusalem, and mainly in his willingness to allow Israel freedom
to operate in Syria. This willingness does not go without saying, and
supposedly contradicts Russian interests in Syria.
While the rest of the world focused on what
Trump did or didn't say to Putin, about Russia's meddling in the 2016
presidential elections, in the Middle East the media focused on the two
leaders' amenity to Israel. Without a doubt, the sense that the U.S. and
Russia are standing alongside Israel, much like they did on the eve of
the vote for Israel's independence at the United Nations in 1947,
enhances it in the eyes of its enemies.
The two leaders also agreed on the matter
of Syria's future. Both can come to terms – either enthusiastically, for
lack of a better option or indifference – with Syrian President Bashar
Assad winning the war and remaining in power. This was Putin's goal from
the beginning, when he chose to support a close ally and block radical
Islam from seizing control of the region. But it appears the Americans,
too, under Obama and now Trump, won't go out of their way to oust Assad.
From the outset Washington never had much economic or political
interest in Syria. Its involvement only came after the rise of Islamic
State and was only aimed at fighting it and the terror it disseminated
across the globe.
Hence the undeclared understandings reached
by Trump and Putin, whereby Assad will continue ruling Syria but both
superpowers will work to ensure that its doesn't morph into a launching
pad for threats against Israel.
Alongside this, however, is the actual
reality on the ground. In Syria, Assad has completed his march of
victory and last weekend he returned to the Quneitra region and Israel's
border. And although the same Assad, like his father before him, made
sure to always preserve complete quiet along the border with Israel,
it's safe to assume the Iranians and perhaps even Hezbollah fighters
will follow in Assad's wake and take up positions along the Israeli
frontier.
To be sure, it must be said that despite
the supposed chemistry between Putin and Trump, Russia and the U.S. are
still adversaries. There remains a giant chasm separating the two and
they fight on behalf of contradicting and competing interests across the
globe. Such is the case in the Far East, Central Asia and Eastern
Europe, and even on U.S. soil.
For this reason, Russia still needs Iran –
not just to ensure its victory in Syria but as a vital partner in its
regional and international fight with the United States. Therefore,
alongside its commitment to Israel, Russia will continue to pursue
cooperation with Iran and it is doubtful it will want to or be able to
keep the Islamic republic out of Syria.
And while Israel is happy over Trump and
Putin's positive sentiments, it must still prepare to continue
countering Iran's presence in Syria. Indeed, neither Russia nor the U.S.
will stop Israel in this fight, but they won't do the job of removing
the Iranians from Syria either.
Prof. Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/helsinki-israel-syria-and-iran/
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