by Yoav Limor
ANALYSIS: The incursion by a Syrian fighter jet into Israeli territory was inadvertent and likely stemmed from a navigational error
The downing of a Syrian fighter jet that breached Israeli airspace
Tuesday, together with recent events on Israel's northern front have
created the impression that we are on the brink of a serious security
escalation - but that is not the case. Chances of a war with Syria were
and remain low.
Recent events show that both Israel and
Syria are operating solely according to their own interests. The
Syrian army is busy taking over the country's southwest, on the Syrian
Golan Heights, and as far as it is concerned the end justifies the
means. Israel, for its part, enforces its predetermined red lines,
chief among them that it will not tolerate any attempt to undermine its
sovereignty.
As a rule, Israel and Syria refrain from
provocations, as neither has any interest in a clash. Skirmishes the
likes of which we saw Tuesday are rare and usually involve errant
Syrian fire that hits the Israeli side of the border over the fighting
near the shared border.
Tuesday's incident fits into that category.
The Syrian pilot had no intention of breaching Israeli airspace and
the incident most likely stemmed from a navigational error made during a
strike on rebel pockets near the border.
Israel, which has reiterated in the past
that there are no "small violations of sovereignty," did what it
always does when a threat presents itself – it engaged and eliminated
it.
Israel's policy is not meant solely to
defend the public and the state's territorial integrity, but also to
send a clear message to regional players that are far more
sophisticated that the battered Syrian Air Force, such as Iran, which
might be tempted to exploited any holes in Israel's defenses to carry
out a terrorist attack; or Russia – an ally that nonetheless may be
tempted to send drones into the Golan Heights on reconnaissance
missions.
The decision to shoot down the Syrian
fighter jet was part of the standing orders of the Air Defense
Command. The successful Patriot interceptor launch was also a minor
consolation for the failed launch of the David's Sling interceptor on
Sunday, but mostly, it was a think hint to regional players not to do
anything foolish as Israel is well-defended.
The incident also served Israel's interest
from another aspect: Russian Chief of Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov
visited Israel this week (for the first time). One of the issued
Israeli defense officials discussed with him was the Iranian presence
in Syria.
Israel demands all Iranian forced in Syria
be removed. Russia has been trying to convince Israel to agree to
their presence 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the border, a notion
Israel has rejected, saying such distance was trivial.
This assumption proved correct on Tuesday.
The jet that breached Israeli airspace may have been Syrian and not
Iranian, but the incident demonstrated how volatile the sector could be
if players that are less restrained than Israel and Syria were allowed
to operate in it.
Things on the Israel-Syria border will
continue to be volatile until the Syria army completes its takeover of
the area, so there is potential for future skirmishes.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/07/25/israels-message-to-syria-no-more-small-violations/
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