by Boaz Bismuth
Donald Trump is only the fourth president in the past 104 years to increase his party's hold on the Senate while losing seats in the House, all but paving his path to victory in 2020
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the
White House, Tuesday
Screenshot: Youtube
The "anyone but
Trump" camp celebrated a political upset in the House of
Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections on Tuesday, eight
years after former President Barack Obama lost the House to the
Republicans.
The Left, in the words of designated House speaker Nancy Pelosi, hailed
this change as "a new day for America," in effect paraphrasing former
President Ronald Reagan's optimistic 1984 campaign slogan, "It's
morning in America again."
But the Democrats won by points alone –
this was not a true victory. Yes, they now have the majority in the
House and will be able to assign more special investigators to
challenge Trump and his administration and drag them through various
hearings, but that will be the sum of their achievements.
They do not have the power to repeal any of
the laws he passed, to cancel his tax reform, to roll back his
deregulation policies or to reinstate the components of the Patient
Protection and Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, that
Trump discarded.
In their glee, the Democrats seem to be
forgetting one important thing – the fact that the Republicans have
increased their power in the Senate, which is more important than the
House in terms of Trump's presidential legacy.
It is the Senate that approves Trump's
nominees for the Supreme Court; it is the Senate that approves
international treaties; and it is the Senate that wields power over a
host of other cardinal issues. In any event, the very fact that the
Republicans control the Senate means that any legislative initiative
that the Democrats pass in the House can be thwarted when it reaches
the Senate.
Moreover, even if the Democrats, in their
hubris, decide to pursue impeachment proceedings against Trump, they
lack the authority to see it through, as only the Senate can impeach a
sitting president – only after holding a special trial and only with a
two-thirds majority vote by the senators.
The 'blue tsunami' that wasn't
So what do the results of Tuesday's
midterms mean? The "blue wave" promised by mainstream American media
crashed onto Trump's red wall. Yes, the Democrats secured the necessary
narrow majority needed to take the House of Representatives, but they
fell vastly short of rattling the Trump administration.
There was no "blue wave" and certainly
no "blue tsunami." At most, this was a narrow loss by an incumbent
president two years into his term. George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and
Obama all experienced the same thing, only on a much larger scale.
In fact, as Trump himself said, he is only
the fourth president in the past 104 years to increase his party's
hold on the Senate while losing seats in the House. That previously
happened only in 1970, 1962 and 1914.
Also, unless the final voter tally changes
dramatically, Trump has lost 25 seats in the House while Obama lost 63
seats in 2010, Bush lost 30 seats in 2006, and Clinton lost 54 seats
in 1994.
Moreover, Clinton and Bush lost the
majority in the House and the Senate simultaneously, while Trump
increased the Republican's power there. One must also remember that an
increase in the number of senators from the president's party is very
unusual for midterm elections.
It's no wonder that the 45th president of
the United States went to bed pleased. Judging by his tweets, he woke
up feisty, but then he appeared at his post-midterms press conference
wearing a blue tie – the color of the Democrats. His overall message
during the press conference was also conciliatory, but simultaneously
urging the Democrats to understand that they have to cooperate with the
Republicans and that they do not control the centers of power in the
American administration
.
The 2018 midterm elections have
demonstrated that Trump will most likely win the 2020 presidential
race, if only because now he can blame Pelosi for torpedoing his
reforms. Pelosi is not exactly a popular figure and even the Democrats
are showing signs they are fed up with her.
The Democrats had one dream: to take
control of both houses of Congress in order to overturn Trump's laws
and have the ability to threaten him with impeachment, in the hope
that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into the Trump
campaign's ties with Russia gives them enough to go on. Apparently,
the Democrats have little faith in their ability to replace presidents
at the polls.
If I were a member of the Democratic Party I
would be very nervous right now, despite the narrow victory in the
House of Representatives, and especially when looking at a state like
Florida.
The Democrats were counting on Florida,
where according to polls Senator Bill Nelson was supposed to win
another term in office and the Democratic candidate for governor,
Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, was supposed to make history and
become the first African American governor. In the end, however,
Nelson was ousted by his Republican rival, outgoing Governor Rick
Scott, and Gillum lost to Ron DeSantis, a former U.S. Representative
for Florida's 6th congressional district.
Florida voters like to surprise everyone.
They tuned out the liberals and elected DeSantis – a three-time
congressman, a military veteran with a Harvard law degree and a staunch
supporter of Israel – over Gillum, a social activist and radical
leftist, who was endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Obama.
DeSantis, for his part, is completely in
line with Trump, making his victory one that proves that a Trump
candidate is a winner and an Obama candidate is a loser, if nothing
than because the United States is not ready for a radical leftists
candidate.
This may be a signal to the Democrats,
should they consider naming Sanders or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth
Warren as their presidential candidates in 2020. It is highly
uncertain that the American people are interested in Obama's legacy.
Trump's critics should keep the following
in mind: All the main Democratic candidates Obama endorsed lost this
election. Gillum in Florida, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Sally Abrams in
Georgia, and Rich Cordray in Ohio. Trump, who crisscrossed the U.S. to
help Republican candidates, probably influenced the results in the
Senate.
This may be a message to the media and the
Democrats that Trump is not as reviled as they may think; that in fact,
maybe the opposite is true. Trump again proved that he is a brand in
American politics and the American people do not like to change brands
in politics.
The midterms were also influenced by the
"Kavanaugh effect," as the voters were still reeling from the
controversy that surrounded Brett Kavanaugh's appointment to the
Supreme Court.
Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West
Virginia didn't go along with the Democrats' efforts to foil
Kavanaugh's nomination and won another term in office. Other
Democratic senators in red states, who fought against Kavanaugh's
nomination, lost. This, too, proves that Trump's policies and ideology
do not fall on deaf ears among the American public, as the liberal media
would have you believe.
Administration 2.0
Meanwhile, Trump acted nobly on Tuesday and even called Pelosi, who has been very hostile toward him, to congratulate her.
Trump said he hoped the Democrats would not
oust Pelosi, and offered, if need be, to have some Republicans
support her nomination as speaker of the House.
One way or another, the results of the
midterm elections can prove very beneficial for Trump. The Democrats
will undoubtedly try to disrupt the House rather than legislate, while
Trump will try to work with them, as President Clinton did in his first
term with then-Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich. Clinton and Gingrich
were able to join forces and work wonders for the American economy,
and to this day, Clinton is in debt to the Republicans in Congress as
it was their antics that eventually earned him a second term in
office.
If the Democrats prove they cannot do what
Gingrich did, Trump will present them as those who are trying to
undermine the U.S. rather than help it push forward.
The 2018 midterms will be remembered as a
referendum on Trump, but mainly as one that turned over a new leaf for
both parties. For the first time in the Trump era, as of January 2019,
the legislative branch will be divided.
Trump, who is widely perceived as the
"first independent president," may surprise everyone and strike
important compromises with the Democrats. After all, he was never a
pure ideologue, and he never fully subscribed to the Republican
sentiment. Trump has already proved that he is willing to do the
impossible, so it is quite possible that the 2018 midterms will be the
beginning of a new era. A new Congress, a new Trump – administration
2.0.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/11/08/a-divided-congress-is-an-excellent-opportunity-for-%e2%80%8etrump/
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