by Oded Granot
Hamas and Islamic Jihad realize that Israeli leaders want quiet at almost any cost and are averse to anything that could spark an uncontrollable conflagration. This has all but destroyed the foundations of Israeli deterrence.
Hamas restrained
itself for almost 24 hours after soldiers from an elite IDF unit
infiltrated Gaza, and only then did it begin raining rockets on Israel
and even fired an anti-tank missile that badly wounded a civilian.
That temporary restraint was exploited
partly to bury the seven people killed in the firefight with the Israeli
commandos, among them Hamas' Khan Yunis battalion commander, but mainly
for consultations and deliberations with Islamic Jihad over the nature
and scope of the response to the Israeli operation.
According to Palestinian officials, the opinions in this Gaza "cabinet" were split.
Some believed the response should be
limited, saying that the Israeli operation had failed, the Israeli
troops had been forced to retreat, and Israel had sustained a heavy,
painful blow with the death of Lt. Col. M. The terrorist organizations
took pains to tell the public in Gaza that thanks to their "operational
alertness" they were able to "chase off and defeat" the elite force of
Israeli soldiers. They thought a "symbolic" punitive response would
suffice.
However, others said the response to the
Israeli action should be harsh and painful, even at the cost of an
escalation and nullifying cease-fire efforts. More than the pain over
the seven deaths, they fretted over the embarrassment and not knowing
the purpose and objective of the Israeli infiltration. It is safe to say
Hamas is still fumbling in the dark trying to understand the Israeli
operation, which is for the best. The group's leaders understood
immediately that it was not an assassination or abduction mission, and
on Monday evening the Palestinians were already making baseless claims
that the "infiltration was carried out on the basis of 'intelligence
information' as to the whereabouts of the Israeli civilians" being held
in Gaza. One Palestinian official claimed that the mission's objective
was obviously "far bigger" than assassinating someone in Hamas' military
wing.
Under these circumstances, in which Israel
"allows itself" to infiltrate Gaza despite and during mediation efforts,
Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders chose to fire a Kornet anti-tank
missile at a bus and bombarded civilian communities with hundreds of
short- and medium-range rockets to deter Israel from similar actions.
This shooting, however, came with a warning
that the scope and duration of the current skirmish depends on the
Israeli response. In other words: If Israel settles for a short and
restrained response, without too many casualties on the Palestinian
side, the incident can be contained and the diplomatic avenue will still
be in play. But if Israel expands its bombings in Gaza, the armed
organizations will increase their rocket range. In short: Hamas and
Islamic Jihad not only want to dictate the rules of the game and when
the shooting starts and stops, they also want to control the height of
the flames.
Israel cannot come to terms with such a situation.
Hamas: 'Israel wanted an agreement at all costs'
There is virtually no doubt that the
massive rocket barrage at Israel on Monday night is about more than the
recent chain of events.
To a large extent, it is also the result of
the realization within Hamas and Islamic Jihad that Israeli leaders
want to secure an arrangement and quiet at almost any cost and are
averse to anything that could spark an uncontrollable conflagration.
This conclusion is the byproduct of declarations made by senior Israelis and the decision to allow cash and fuel to enter Gaza.
This understanding essentially demolished
the foundations of Israeli deterrence against Hamas, which were intact
for nearly four years. If Israel needs a cease-fire so badly, it is also
possible to rain down hundreds of rockets on it without worrying that
the cease-fire efforts (which Hamas also badly wants and needs) will
collapse.
This equation has to be changed. We must
continue to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, and in the same breath
signal to the terrorist organizations that Israel is not afraid of an
escalation, even at the cost of terminating cease-fire efforts. There is
no need to conquer the Gaza Strip – there are other ways to achieve the
goal and restore deterrence.
Oded Granot
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/11/13/israel-must-reclaim-the-initiative/
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