by Yoav Limor
The desire to avoid another war is legitimate, but it is also dangerous considering the prolonged erosion in Israeli deterrence.
The Israeli public
learned of the Egyptian-brokered cease-fire in this round of violence
in Gaza – the worst since Operation Protective Edge in 2014 – from
Qatari news network Al Jazeera. No Israeli official saw fit to announce
the truce or provide any details of what it entails.
The government's decision to avoid war is
legitimate, even if much of the public believes it is wrong. There
are enough reasons not to be dragged into a large military operation,
including the fear of prolonged entanglement that would result in many
casualties and extensive destruction, the desire not to divert
strategic attention from the northern sector, and, of course, the
knowledge that the "day after" would look exactly the same, if not
worse.
The government should have explained all of
this to the public. Its failure to do so only intensified the sense
of public frustration and confusion, not to mention the feeling that
Hamas has emerged victorious. If anything, everyone, especially
residents in communities near the Gaza border, believes the next round
of violence is only a matter of time.
The situation on the ground is more
complex. Hamas suffered more blows than it dealt and lost many
substantial assets, and while its senior leaders escaped with their
lives, it was only because of an Israeli decision that stemmed from the
belief that targeting their hideouts would place many innocent
Palestinian civilians in harm's way.
But the terrorist group was not devoid of
achievements, most prominently the relatively high number of
projectiles the Iron Dome defense system failed to intercept.
Nearly 500 rockets and mortar shells were
fired from Gaza between Monday and Tuesday: 100 were intercepted, over
200 landed in open areas and 30 hit urban areas in Israel, mainly in
Ashkelon and Sderot, while the rest landed in Gaza. This indicates that
there are issues with the defense Iron Dome offers and these issues
must be addressed immediately.
The successful missile fire on an army bus
near Kibbutz Kfar Aza was also a substantial achievement for Hamas. It
seems Hamas intentionally sought to minimize casualties, waiting until
about 30 soldiers disembarked the bus before firing on it. In the
words of a senior defense official, the entire incident was a
"disgrace," as the bus had no businesses being in a restricted military
area.
The flare-up has seen the IDF successfully
foil Hamas "surprises," including the use of drones, but Gaza's
terrorists deliberately refrained from aggressively escalating the
situation, which is probably why they did not use terror tunnels or
extend rocket fire to Ashdod and Beersheba.
The IDF, too, exercised restraint. All air
raids were preceded by warnings, to minimize casualties, as past
experience has proved that the higher the number of casualties, the
more Hamas feels obligated to prolong the fighting.
The Egyptian-brokered cease-fire will face
its first test this Friday, at the weekly border protest. During this
week's flare-up, Israel insisted on preventing Palestinians from
approaching the security fence in order to try to reestablish the
security perimeter along the border. Hamas will likely try to
challenge that over the weekend, and it is doubtful whether Israel will
press the issue, so as not to trigger fresh violence.
The lull will also test Hamas' ability to
curb arson terrorism and the border riots. Israel will have to refrain,
at least in the foreseeable future, from mounting any operations in
Gaza, overt or covert, and the IDF will undoubtedly have to deal with a
host of ensuing and complex dilemmas.
Down the line, the issue of the Israeli
captives in Gaza will have to be addressed, as well as the issue of
Gaza funds. Violence will surely erupt if Hamas finds itself in dire
need of cash again. But allowing another delivery of Qatari money to
Hamas will paint Israel as aiding not only the civilian rehabilitation
of Gaza but as aiding Hamas to rebuild its infrastructure.
All these factors all but guarantee
that the Gazan headache will continue to throb for a while. In the
absence of a strategic solution, Israel will continue to put out
fires. This is a legitimate policy but it is also dangerous, because it
gives Gaza's terrorist rulers far too much leeway.
One can only hope that the decision not to
change this policy at this time, even at the cost of undermining
Israeli deterrence, will not turn out to be a mistake.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/11/14/failure-to-bolster-deterrence-may-take-heavy-toll/
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