by Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen
In the words of David Ben-Gurion: “The experts are experts about what was, not about what will be.”
Hezbollah rocket launcher uncovered by IDF in southern Lebanon, photo via IDF Flickr CC
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,343, November 14, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The unprecedented
convergence of strategic threats now taking shape under Iran’s
inspiration and guidance requires the IDF to adopt a new operational
approach without delay (including a reorganization and a suitable
buildup) and the Israeli public to prepare for the emergency situations
attending these new emergent threats.
PM Benjamin Netanyahu recently warned of new
threats that necessitate immediate emergency measures, and IDF Chief of
Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi has made similar warnings. Yet some claim
this is fear-mongering for political purposes.
True, none of these threats are new—but their
unprecedented convergence under Iran’s inspiration and guidance has
created a new strategic system that renders the outbreak of war on
several fronts simultaneously a realistic scenario.
Security and political advisers, hampered by a
lack of imagination, have not infrequently failed to identify strategic
and political processes and to anticipate the future. In the words of
David Ben-Gurion: “The experts are experts about what was, not about
what will be.”
The weakening of American dominance in the Middle
East has many far-reaching implications—above all, an increased risk of
war without the restraining superpower influence at hand to help bring
it to a close. This reality does not stem solely from the change in the
White House’s Middle East policy. It is also relates to major changes
that have occurred on the battlefield, such as the emergence of widely
dispersed, sophisticated, easily available weaponry, which has seriously
dented American military superiority.
Recent US Defense Department publications reflect a
keen awareness of the implications of this phenomenon, especially the
availability of advanced military technologies and hardware to civilian
and state actors, including Iran. Thus, for example, in the Iranian
attack on the Saudi oil facilities, cruise missiles and drones were
guided by sophisticated information-processing technologies that enabled
them to fly under the radar and score accurate hits. Tehran-backed
Houthi rebels have been using drones and cruise missiles for quite some
time, and they are even being constructed in Yemen under Iranian
tutelage. This new balance of forces augments Tehran’s influence in
Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and jeopardizes Jordan’s stability.
A further aspect of the systemic change is the
military strengthening of Hezbollah and Hamas—terror organizations that
were long ago essentially transformed into regular military forces.
These “terror armies,” as Chief of Staff Kochavi calls them, are
structured into battalions and brigades and are endowed with formidable
firepower and intelligence capabilities as well as advanced command and
control systems. Under Iranian direction and guidance, these groups also
possess sophisticated weapons systems such as drones, rockets, and
missiles, the accuracy of which continues to improve.
In time of war, these developments will pose
serious challenges to Israel when it comes to protecting the country’s
civilian population and infrastructure. In a recent article, Maj. Gen.
Tamir Yadai, head of Home Front Command, set forth the elements of the
new challenge. He said, “Even though the directions of change in the
threat to the home front are known to all in the Home Front Command and
in the IDF, the aggregate nature of the emergent threat is undefined as
yet.” Among the aspects that form the new threat, he numbered not only a
far-ranging fire offensive aimed at paralyzing the Israeli home
front—with heavy civilian casualties and strikes on national
infrastructure—but also the developing efforts of Hezbollah and Hamas to
take the war into Israeli territory with extensive ground attacks.
The convergence of these threats, which can emerge
all at once in coordinated synchronization, changes the threat equation
to one fundamentally different from that of the past: quantitative
change becomes a qualitative change that mandates a new, suitable
reorganization. The IDF’s current order of battle, both in the standing
and reserve forces, is insufficient for an all-out multi-front war and
cannot provide an adequate response to all the threats combined.
This is an edited version of an article published in Israel Hayom on November 8.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-security-threats/
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