by Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen
The clerics in Iran are holding fast to their policy of denial or at least minimization of the coronavirus catastrophe while encouraging the IRGC to proceed with its regional activities in support of Iran’s aspirations in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,525, April 10, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Coronavirus
has killed thousands in Iran and sickened more than 60,000. If the
virus is not contained, hundreds of thousands more Iranians risk
infection and death. If skillfully handled, this crisis might present
the Trump administration with a unique opportunity to reduce the Iranian
nuclear threat.
It’s too early to say that the coronavirus
pandemic is out of control, but several countries critically hit by the
virus are desperately calling for help. While in the US and Europe full
transparency is an indispensable tool in combatting the disease,
countries in the Middle East are sticking to their traditionally opaque
approach to crises in an effort to downplay the full scale of the
emergency.
Iran is the outstanding example of this syndrome. A
steady stream of news from that country, consisting primarily of leaks
from unofficial sources, suggests that the disease is rampant. The death
and sickness toll in Iran is already terrible and if the virus is not
contained, it will threaten the lives of hundreds of thousands more
Iranians. The country may well be approaching the point of no return.
The severity of the situation is an indictment of
the ruling regime’s incompetence. It critically failed to ready the
country for a crisis of this kind, leaving medical personnel scrambling
to cope with extreme shortages of even the most basic supplies necessary
to fight the virus and protect themselves. The state-run daily Ressalat, reflecting
the regime’s orchestrated cover-up policy, wrote in early March that
“the statistics [of medical personnel infected] are completely
security-related and cannot be revealed.”
This policy of obfuscation is not only a danger to Iranian medical professionals. As The New York Times wrote, ”the [Iranian] authorities seem as worried about controlling information as they are about controlling the virus,” and The Washington Post cautioned that “Iran’s reaction to coronavirus has become a danger for the world.”
Unofficial reports from Iran suggest that the IRGC
and the Ministry of Intelligence have been tasked to threaten families
of victims into keeping silent in an effort to cover up the true number
of fatalities. IRGC command has ordered its provincial divisions to be
present at hospitals and medical centers to control reporting on the
numbers of patients infected or killed by the virus. Families of
coronavirus victims are pressured not to disclose the real cause of
death, and an almost hermetic censorship has been imposed on social
networks and online media.
Looking backward, it is now clear that the
coronavirus outbreak in Iran started in the holy city of Qom in February
2020. Calls to quarantine the city were strongly opposed by the mullahs
and by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who not only would not allow the
city’s holy shrine to be closed but urged pilgrims to continue to visit
it. One of Khamenei’s aides was quoted on February 22nd as saying, “The
enemy intends to show that Qom is insecure and take revenge, but it will
never succeed”. Another cleric said four days later, “We consider the
holy shrine a ‘house of cure’ and it must remain open and people must
resolutely visit the shrine.”
On March 29, a group of 100 Iranian academics and
political and social activists published a letter holding Khamenei
chiefly responsible for the epidemic’s becoming a national disaster.
They claim that Khamenei is preventing citizens from receiving American
or other humanitarian aid while ensuring that he and other regime
officials have access to medical treatment.
The clerics in Iran are holding fast to their
policy of denial or at least minimization of the coronavirus catastrophe
while encouraging the IRGC to proceed with its regional activities in
support of Iran’s aspirations in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. On April 1,
President Trump warned Iran against using its proxy forces to attack
American troops in Iraq and hinted that the US military is considering a
direct strike on Iranian forces. He said his administration has “very
good information” that Iran-backed militias are planning more assaults.
In parallel, it appears that the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen has
augmented its ballistic missile launches against Saudi strategic assets
as well as Yemen’s governmental targets during the crisis. The latest
attack, which was directed at the Yemenite district of Saada, occurred
on April 5.
An additional worrisome dimension has to do with
Iran’s activities in the nuclear domain. Unofficial Israeli sources have
expressed concern that Iran is taking advantage of the coronavirus
crisis to accelerate uranium enrichment under the radar. This is
entirely possible, as IAEA inspectors are refraining from visiting
Iranian nuclear sites and several have fled Iran entirely due to the
high risk of contamination. Iran’s continued violations of its
commitments according to the JCPOA have potentially dangerous
ramifications, as the US is of course fully aware.
Iran poses a triple threat that must be
acknowledged and assessed by the international community: a catastrophic
and possibly out-of-control outbreak of coronavirus, ongoing aggressive
efforts led by IRGC-related proxies to interfere in and disrupt the
region, and a prohibited acceleration of the national nuclear program.
The world is thus faced with a dilemma: a moral
obligation to take a humanitarian approach to Iran versus a policy of
squeezing the Iranian regime economically and psychologically to achieve
strategic gains. Does the extremity of the crisis faced by Tehran
present an opportunity for Washington?
On April 12, 1959, John F. Kennedy said, “The
Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word ‘crisis.’ One brush
stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity. In a crisis, be
aware of the danger—but recognize the opportunity.” A similar saying
attributed to the Italian Renaissance writer Niccolo Machiavelli
recommends that we “never waste the opportunity offered by a good
crisis.”
Crisis and opportunity are two sides of a single
coin. Should we focus on the crisis or look for the opportunity?
Considering how long-lasting and potentially explosive the Iranian
nuclear issue is, it seems sensible to consider the strategic dimension
under the current extraordinary circumstances.
Provided that it is handled skillfully by the
Trump administration, the coronavirus crisis could present a unique
opportunity to reduce the Iranian nuclear threat. The plan should be
twofold: an international campaign led by the US to offer Iran the
maximum humanitarian and medical assistance to contain the epidemic, and
the acquiring of Iran’s commitment to a new nuclear agreement that
fills the gaps left by the JCPOA.
Though the US is itself in the midst of fighting
the virus, it can handle such an initiative, as it holds the winning
cards. The outcome of such a far-reaching approach to Iran could be
worthwhile in both the short and the long terms.
Timing is the name of the game, considering the
scale of the catastrophe in Iran as well as the simmering domestic rage
against the clerical regime. The walls are closing in on Khamenei and
his entourage.
Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen is a retired colonel who served as a senior analyst in IDF Military Intelligence.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-crisis-opportunity/
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