by Prof. Eytan Gilboa
Arab states are no longer ready to sacrifice vital strategic interests for Palestinian rejectionism of peace proposals
President Trump announces normalization of
relations
between Israel and the UAE, August 13, 2020,
Official White
House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,696, August 17, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli peace
agreement with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is transforming strategic
alliances in the Middle East. It formalizes the Israeli-Sunni Arab bloc
against the aggressive and violent Iranian Shiite crescent that spreads
from Tehran via Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and from Tehran to Yemen. The
agreement sends messages to Iran, the Palestinians, the EU, and Joe
Biden. It shows that the Arab states are no longer ready to sacrifice
vital strategic interests for Palestinian rejectionism of peace
proposals, most recently the Trump peace plan. It also busts myths about
Israel and Middle Eastern politics.
The Israel-UAE agreement is
extremely important. This is the third peace agreement to be signed
between Israel and an Arab country. The other two were with Egypt (1979)
and Jordan (1994). The UAE agreement will increase the prospects for
peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East.
Israel and several Gulf states have been closely
collaborating under the table for a number of years, mainly on security
issues. These relations are now being opened up and upgraded. More and
more people across much of the Sunni Muslim Arab world no longer
perceive Israel as an enemy but rather as a potential ally. This deal
will increase Israel’s legitimacy as a Jewish state in the Middle East.
A combination of threats and opportunities made
the agreement happen. The threat both countries face is Iran’s quest for
hegemony and domination in the Middle East via violence, terrorism,
military interventions, and nuclear weapons. Iran is active in Iraq,
Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. The Arab Gulf states are especially
vulnerable to the Iranian threat.
The Israel-UAE alliance is
expected to deal more effectively with Iran. Other Gulf states like
Bahrain and Oman are likely to sign similar agreements with Israel, as
they share the same concerns that brought about the agreement with the
UAE.
In addition to the matter of the common threat,
opportunities exist in the fields of technology and trade. Israel, the
“start-up nation,” leads the world in innovation, advanced technologies,
and artificial intelligence in the fields of medicine, agriculture,
solar energy, water conservation, and desalinization—all important areas
for the Gulf states.
The UAE is seeking breakthroughs in these and
other areas and wants to have more influence on Middle Eastern politics.
It has the resources while Israel has the human power with which to
promote innovation, sustainability, and entrepreneurship. The agreement
will also improve the reputation and standing of both countries in the
eyes of the world.
The Israel-UAE agreement halted Israel’s plan to
unilaterally apply sovereignty to areas in the West Bank that the Trump
peace plan had allocated to Israel. But it also sends the Palestinians
four clear messages:
- The Palestinians can no longer exercise veto power on relations between Israel and Arab states with which it shares significant security and economic interests.
- Containing the Iranian threat is more important to some Arab states than the Palestinian cause.
- Time is not on the Palestinians’ side. For decades, they have rejected American proposals—including the most recent one proposed by Trump—on the assumption that eventually, Israel would be forced to accept their uncompromising demands. This premise can no longer be taken for granted.
- The agreement undermines the Palestinians’ strategy of conditioning peace agreements between Israel and Arab countries on an agreement between them and Israel.
The Israel-UAE agreement exposes the enemies of
peace and stability in the region. Iran and Erdoğan’s Turkey, the two
big non-Arab Muslim theocracies, have not only condemned the agreement
but have threatened the UAE and promised retaliation. Their purpose is
to deter other Arab countries from following the UAE’s example.
Recently, Turkey threatened Greece over gas reserves and maritime rights
in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is about time the US and NATO define
Turkey as a hostile power undermining Western interests in the region
and act accordingly.
The agreement sends a message to the EU,
especially to the Western member states that still subscribe to obsolete
beliefs about the Middle East. Despite the so-called “Arab Spring” and
the ongoing horrific civil wars in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, they still
mistakenly refer to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the “Middle East
Conflict” and view peace between Israel and the Palestinians as the key
to stability for the entire region. Like the Palestinians, they
continue to claim that Arab-Israeli peace can come only after an
Israeli-Palestinian peace.
The Israel-UAE agreement also busts the myth that a
right-led Israeli government can’t make peace with Arabs. Persistent
though this myth may be, it was proven false as long ago as 1979, when
the first peace agreement was negotiated by the right-led government of
Israeli PM Menachem Begin and Egypt’s Anwar Sadat. Similarly, a
right-led Israeli government negotiated the Israel-UAE agreement.
Trump would like to have a public celebration in
honor of this historic agreement like those on the White House lawn that
marked the signing of the peace agreement with Egypt in 1979 and the
Oslo Accords in 1993, as well as the one held on the border between
Israel and Jordan to celebrate their 1994 peace agreement. The “Deal of
the Century” hasn’t worked out too well, but the Israel-UAE agreement is
certainly cause for celebration.
Trump is hoping this breakthrough will help him
win the 2020 presidential election, as up to this point he has had no
significant foreign policy achievements. While this deal is indeed a
major achievement, it won’t significantly affect the vote. American
voters are focused on the coronavirus pandemic and the economy and are
unlikely to place much importance on this agreement.
Jimmy Carter helped reach peace between Israel and
Egypt in 1979 but lost the 1980 election because of bad economic
conditions in the US. Similarly, George H.W. Bush got Saddam Hussein out
of Kuwait but lost the next presidential election due to worsening
economic conditions.
Timing could be a factor in the US role. The selection of Kamala Harris as
the Democratic VP candidate is a big plus for Biden and strengthens his
candidacy. The Israel-UAE agreement could somewhat offset the negative
repercussions.
Israel and the Gulf states are worried to death
about Biden and the Democrats because of their intention to restore the
nuclear deal with Iran negotiated by Barack Obama. The Israel-UAE
agreement could be a message to Biden and the Democrats that they would
do well to give more weight to the interests of American allies in the
region, and should certainly not legitimize an untrustworthy Iran’s
imperial aspirations.
This is an expanded and revised version of an article published in the Jerusalem Post on August 14,
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-uae-myths/
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