by Oded Granot
With only three weeks left before Trump leaves the White House, Iran's window of opportunity for action is quickly narrowing. Any military action against US targets under a President Biden could seriously undermine Iranian efforts to bring the US back into the 2015 nuclear accord.
Concerns over a military escalation in the Persian Gulf have reached new heights as Iran marks the one-year anniversary of the assassination of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani and will likely remain that way until US President Donald Trump leaves office.
It is for that reason that Israel and the US have made extraordinary efforts to deter Iran from exacting revenge over Soleimani's assassination as well as the November killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who headed the country's nuclear program. Washington dispatched both a nuclear submarine and an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. B-52 bombers, which took off from North Dakota, made their threatening presence felt in the Middle Eastern skies. The US Central Command sent reinforcements to Saudi Arabia, and Trump tweeted that "Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat."
For its part, Israel hasn't denied reports one of its submarines passed through the Suez Canal "on its way to the Persian Gulf." Defense officials in Jerusalem have warned of possible Iranian revenge attacks, such as the launching of missiles from Yemen or Iraq and attacks by its emissaries in Syria and Lebanon against Israeli and other targets.
The concern Iran is planning a military operation against the US and possibly Israel is based on intelligence information and analysis.
There have been reports of missiles and advanced weapons being transferred from Iran to the militias in Iraq and the Houthi rebels in Yemen on a massive scale. There have also been reports of frequent meetings between those militias' commanders and Soleimani's successor Esmail Ghaani. Just days ago, 20 rockets landed near the US Embassy in Badghdad's Green Zone in what has been seen by many as an Iranian down payment of sorts for what is to come.
The assessment in Washington, although less so in Jerusalem, is that Iranian action is imminent due to just how painful Soleimani's death has been for the ayatollah regime. This is one killing Tehran simply cannot let slide. Over the last year, admiration for Iran's legendary leader has reached levels the country has never seen before. From martyr of the nation, Soleimani is now on the same level as Husayn ibn Ali, the son of the founder of Shia Islam, who was killed in the Battle of Karbala in 680 CE. A museum has been established in his honor in Tehran, a 40-episode miniseries on him has been broadcast on Iranian TV, and Soleimani has become something of an internet star.
Another reason for the increased concern: With only three weeks left before Trump leaves the White House, Iran's window of opportunity for action is quickly narrowing. Any military action against US targets under a President Biden could seriously undermine Iranian efforts to bring the US back into the 2015 nuclear accord.
In Tehran, they haven't tried very hard to allay concerns of impending revenge, but they have tried to present an inverted image of the situation at hand. It is not Iran that seeks to take action against the US, but rather Trump who is planning to bomb the nuclear facilities under the pretext of deterring Iran from launching an attack, they say. The Iranians have been convinced, or at the very least are trying to portray themselves as convinced, that Israel and Saudi Arabia are now pressing Trump to take immediate action, and the US president believes military action against Iran will thwart Biden's entry into the White House, or so the Iranians would like to believe.
With both sides preparing for military action while accusing the other of aggression, an error in judgment could easily lead to a massive flare-up. Over the weekend, just one attempt was made to calm tensions: acting US Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller ordered the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier to return home following a 10-month deployment to the Middle East. It's unlikely the move will have the desired effect.
One thing though is for certain. Even if the coming three weeks go by without a military escalation in the Persian Gulf and the transition of power in the US goes through without a hitch, there is no guarantee the world will see an improvement in US-Iran ties. The Iranians will demand the new president immediately end or ease sanctions and will refuse to abandon their ballistic missile program. Nor will they rush to sign a new deal that once again tries to tie their hands in the race to obtain a nuclear bomb.
Oded Granot
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/iran-will-have-its-revenge-2/
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