by Oded Granot
Qatari-Iranian relations have not been severed and the Saudis are more concerned with ending the war in Yemen. Meanwhile, only Israel views an Iranian bomb as an existential threat.
Iran's calculated move, intended to prod the Biden administration to quickly return to the 2015 nuclear deal, was successful this week because of the three strong cards it put on the table: threatening to continue enriching uranium at high grades; activating new and fast centrifuges at Natanz; restricting the International Atomic Energy Agency's access to its nuclear facilities.
This success was evidenced, among other things, in interviews granted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Instead of warning Iran that the US would not reopen nuclear talks if Iran doesn't immediately and unconditionally halt these severe violations, he chose instead to echo the intimidation. At this rate, so he said, Iran could make a breakthrough toward a nuclear bomb within several weeks. In other words: We need to hurry up.
The frustrating aspect of this story is that alongside Iran's recent violations of the nuclear agreement, which indeed draw it closer to building an atomic bomb (even if it would take longer than a few weeks), the Iranians are also showing no willingness to consider an improved, longer-term nuclear deal that would be more resistant to violations.
They insist on returning to the old deal and aren't prepared to revisit any of its clauses, while also opposing any negotiations pertaining to their ballistic missiles or subversive activities in the region. If that wasn't enough, meanwhile, the Iranians are also demanding that the US make the first move: lifting the harsh sanctions imposed on them by the Trump administration since withdrawing from the deal in 2018. If the Americans ask nicely, maybe the Iranians will agree to a mutual gesture. In other words, trust-building measures, by both sides at the same time.
No one should envy the new administration's task of handling the Iranian nuclear problem. Mutuality in the eyes of the Iranians means they can cease the violations at any moment, but the Biden administration will need, for example, to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of organizations that support terrorism, annul the sanctions imposed on Iran's central bank, oil exports and on companies wishing to do business with Iran; and all this for what, exactly? Going back to the old nuclear deal?
The Biden administration publicly vowed to consult with Congress and America's friends in the Middle East before taking any significant steps regarding Iran. In Congress, even among the Democrats, are many who oppose returning to the old nuclear deal. They believe doing so would be a mistake that would only jeopardize the interests of America and its allies.
However, as it pertains to America's friends in the Middle East, the Biden administration could discover the task isn't impossible. The reason: On the anti-Iran front, the first signs of cracks are showing.
For instance, the reconciliation between Qatar and its neighbors, aimed at weakening Qatar's ties with Iran (which had grown very strong over the three and half years Qatar was boycotted by the Sunni states, chief among them Saudi Arabia), not only failed to sever the relations between the two, it did the opposite. The Qataris are now offering their services to mediate between Washington and Tehran.
The Abraham Accords, too, which were meant to entrench a robust anti-Iran alliance through normalization treaties between Israel and Gulf states, may not have realized their purpose. The reason: Israel views Iran's nuclearization process as an existential threat it cannot tolerate under any circumstances, while Saudi Arabia, for example, is currently more preoccupied with trying to improve its image in the eyes of the Biden administration and trying to find a face-saving exit from the never-ending war in Yemen, in its backyard, which has taken a severe toll on the Saudi treasury.
Consequently, Israel could struggle to confront the Biden administration on a return to the nuclear deal, particularly after the Jewish state was already granted power of attorney, if you will, to act out of the Sunni Gulf states, and will have to, perhaps alone, try convincing the new administration that enriching uranium beyond 20%, activating more advanced centrifuges and accumulating 30 tons of yellowcake signal more than anything that the Iranians are racing toward a bomb -- not medical isotopes.
Oded Granot
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/israel-could-find-itself-alone-against-iran/
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