by Yoav Limor
With Tehran about to inaugurate a radical president and nuclear talks at a dead-end, the Europeans are becoming increasingly frustrated with Iran. Israel must take advantage of the situation to enlist US support for additional sanctions on Iran.
Israel is very concerned by the Iranian attack on a ship partially owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer because it was an unprecedented event: This was the first time Iran openly retaliated for activities attributed to Israel in Syria from its own territory.
The Iranian attack included the launch of two armed Shahed suicide drones capable of reaching a distance of 1,500 kilometers (around 930 miles). These drones were launched by the Revolutionary Guards' Air Force from Iranian soil. While the first drone caused minimal damage, the second resulted in the deaths of two crew-members, one British and one Romanian.
The Iranian attack appears to have been in response to a strike in northern Syria attributed to Israel last week. Several members of the Revolutionary Guards' elite Quds force were killed in this attack, which targeted the transfer of advanced weapons. As is its habit, Israel did not officially take responsibility for the attack, yet Iran appears to have decided to try and create a new equation in its wake. Instead of responding from Syrian soil through the use of its emissaries as they have done in the past, they chose to respond directly from Iran.
This shift is indicative of a number of things. Iran apparently believes it lacks the ability to respond effectively from Syria. The Quds force is also finding it difficult to maintain power in Syria ever since its late commander Qassem Soleimani's was assassinated by US forces last year. As a result, others in the Revolutionary Guards, in this instance the air force that operates attack drones, are taking the Quds Force's place in offensive activities outside Iran.
In addition, Iran does not believe it can exact a price from Israel on Israeli soil or in the surrounding area and that is why it is operating in areas it finds more convenient, in this case near Oman. Iran has identified the maritime field as Israel's soft underbelly because these ships sail far from Israel's shores and lack effective military protection.
Most importantly, Iran feels confident enough to launch drones from its soil, something it has already done in the past, including in the attack on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019, and assumes it will not be made to pay a significant price for doing so.
From Iran's standpoint, such an operation necessitates an ongoing process involving authorization from the most senior authorities in Tehran.
The Iranians have likely collected intelligence on a number of ships and monitored them closely, choosing to attack the ship they believed was most vulnerable. The fact that two drones were launched is evidence of the Iranians' ability to monitor and control the drones in real time, although Iran likely did not plan to kill any crewmembers onboard.
This is where Israel's opportunity lies. Iran may have identified the ship as "Israeli" because of the citizenship of its owners, but for all intents and purposes, this was a Japanese-owned ship sailing under a Liberian flag. Iran may claim Israel was the first to engage in maritime terror when it attacked various ships carrying out its work but the difference is clear: While the activities attributed to Israel targeted the smuggling of weapons and illegal oil, Iran is harming commercial ships solely for their indirect and sometimes nonexistent ties to Israeli businesspeople.
Israel would be wise to use all of the diplomatic tools at its disposal to put the spotlight on Tehran. This provides Israel with a rare opportunity. Ahead of the signing-in of the new and radical President-elect Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran and with nuclear talks in Vienna at a dead end, the attacks should be leveraged to exert international pressure on Tehran.
At the same time, Israel must consolidate a clear policy on how it intends to respond should Iran continue these attacks. It must not accept the creation of a new deterrence equation in which everything Israeli or with ties to Israel around the globe becomes a target for attack, nor should it accept any limitations the Iranians try to impose on the air force's offensive operations against their weapons smuggling in Syria.
Israel should synchronize this new policy with our friends in the West. In recent days, Europeans have sounded increasingly assertive due to Iran's refraining from rejoining the nuclear accord. Some in Europe have even agreed in closed talks that additional sanctions should be imposed on Tehran. It goes without saying then that Israel should exert all the pressure possible on the US administration to enlist its support as well. Obviously, this will be the central focus of US President Joe Biden's first meeting with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett later this month.
Yoav Limor
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/use-attack-near-oman-to-pressure-iran/
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