by Seth J. Frantzman
Syria sent drones to strike at an American military outpost in Tanf – but the strikes were not just targeting the US.
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A drone is launched during a large-scale drone
combat exercise of Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in Semnan, Iran
January 6, 2021. (photo credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Iran conducted a complex and coordinated attack on US
forces in Syria last week. It used up to five armed drones to strike at
the Tanf garrison, a lonely US outpost in Syria near the Jordanian and
Iraqi border.
The
assessment by the US is that Iran was behind this attack. It is the
latest of numerous drone attacks on American forces in the region this
year. Iranian-backed groups in Iraq have used drones to target US forces at Erbil’s airport and other locations.
The attacks are also part of the rising Iranian drone
threat across the region. This means the attack on Tanf is a message
not just for the US, but also for Israel, Saudi Arabia and other
countries facing Iran’s drones.
The
Tanf attack was a “complex, coordinated and deliberate attack,”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said. But Washington didn’t go into more
specifics, reports said.
US
knowledge about the planning of the attack appears to be more than is
being reported in the media. This is because reports say the US was
“tipped off” to the attack and that around 200 troops were evacuated on a
C-130 transport aircraft, Fox News reported.
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| A drone is pictured during a large-scale drone combat exercise of Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in Semnan, Iran January 4, 2021. Picture taken January 4, 2021 (credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA/REUTERS) |
It
is not the first time the US had some knowledge that an attack was
coming and prepared for it. In January 2020, after the US killed Iranian
IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, it received hours of warning
about an Iranian ballistic-missile attack on Al Asad air base in Iraq.
Troops were sent to bunkers, and sensitive equipment was moved away.
On
the night of January 7, “not a single fighter jet or helicopter
remained out in the open,” Reuters reported. The attack came after
midnight. America similarly avoided casualties at Tanf. But the advance
knowledge raises questions about why the US didn’t try to preempt the
attack or interdict it before it happened.
It
also raises questions about lack of air defenses for US facilities.
Reports indicate that US forces tried out counter-UAS (unmanned aircraft
systems) technology called Smart Shooter in June 2020, a technology
used for countering small drones. For larger drones, one needs a system
more like Israel’s Iron Dome. The US has two Iron Dome batteries, but
they are based in Guam, according to reports.
WHAT THIS tells us is that America had some
prior knowledge about Iranian threats to Tanf. It’s not the first time
the outpost has been threatened. An Iranian drone also threatened the
area in 2017, and the US shot it down. Tanf has a 55-km. “deconfliction”
zone around it, meaning the US reserves the right to defend the area up
to that distance away. That’s a big radius and keeps any prying eyes
away.
But Iran and its militias want the Americans to feel vulnerable. Iran has been testing US defenses in Iraq and Syria.
Iran
has also used Syria to base drones for attacks on Israel. In February
2018, an Iranian drone from the T-4 base near Palmyra flew into Israeli
airspace. Israel shot it down. In May 2021, another Iranian drone,
perhaps brought from Iraq, flew into Israeli airspace and was downed. In
August 2019, Israel struck a Hezbollah “killer drone” team that was
operating near the Golan Heights border.
This
means Iran’s drone threats to the US in Iraq and Syria come in the
context of its drone threats across the region and also its attempts to
target Israel.
The
Iranian drones being used in Iraq and Syria may also be similar to
those used by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. These are basically
large flying tubes with wings, which can be backed with explosives so
that the drone is a kind of kamikaze device, not so different than a
German V-1 in World War II.
Some
of these drones are called Samad and come in several types: Samad-1,
Samad-2 and Samad-3. In a July analysis of the Iran-backed drone threat
in Iraq, Farzin Nadimi, an associate fellow with the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, and Michael Knights, a Boston-based Jill
and Jay Bernstein Fellow of the Washington Institute, noted the
similarities in the drones.
THE
IRAQI PMU, which is also called Hashd al-Shaabi and consists of
Iranian-backed militias, had paraded drones in Iraq. One type was called
Sahab.
“Like the
Samad, Sahab is equipped with long-range transceiver antennas for
precision GPS navigation,” the authors wrote in their analysis.
“According to the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen, which examined numerous
crashed examples of Samad, its extended-range version (Samad-3) can fly
over 1,000 km. Six Sahab drones were shown at the parade.”
The
Houthi-style Samad, which is based on Iranian technology and backing,
was already present in Iraq in May 2020. Nick Water, a digital
investigation expert at Bellingcat, made note of this at the time.
Nadimi
and Knights also noted how brazen the parade of Iranian-style drones
was. “The admission of Sahab/Samad fixed-wing drones is also interesting
considering their closeness to the KAS-04 (Samad-type) systems used in
at least five drone attacks on US facilities since April 2021,” they
wrote.
Basically,
Iran was showing its cards in Iraq. Iranian-backed Houthis also show off
their drones. Many of these have been used against Saudi Arabia and run
the gamut from the Samad types to the Qasef and Qasef 2K and others.
There’s no secret here. The drones are often on display, like birds in a
zoo.
Ari Heistein
and Elisha Stoin, in an April article for Tel Aviv University’s
Institute for National Security Studies, wrote: “The Houthis have an
extensive arsenal of UAVs, including long-range Samad [-24] models. The
group used Samad UAVs for long-range attacks in 2018 (against Abu Dhabi)
and then again in 2019 (against Riyadh). However, the Samad-3, which
claims an operational range of 1,800 km. – theoretically enough to
conduct an attack on Israel – will have limited ability to inflict
damage on Israeli infrastructure, given its 45-kg. warhead.”
THE
HOUTHIS also have a delta-wing drone called Waid. Knights described
this drone as well. Regarding “the use of delta-wing attack drones and
Quds-2 cruise missiles, also shown at the March exhibition, Waid is the
Houthi name for the loitering munition that Iran used to attack Saudi
pipelines and the Abqaiq oil facility in May and September 2019,
respectively,” he wrote.
The
Waid drone can supposedly fly 2,500 km. and reach Israel. “Imagery seen
by Newsweek – and confirmed by an expert who follows Iranian activities
in the region – indicate the presence of Iranian Shahed-136 loitering
munitions, also called ‘suicide drones,’ deployed to the northern Yemeni
province of Al-Jawf: an area of the country controlled by the Ansar
Allah, or Houthi, Zaidi Shiite Muslim rebel movement,” Newsweek reported
in January.
It was unclear if the Shahed 136, which had not previously been known, is similar to or the same as the Waid.
Closer
to Israel, Hamas also has the Shehab drone, unveiled in the May war in
Gaza. “While Hamas claims it is entirely indigenous development, this
drone’s general configuration, at least externally, is similar in some
respects to the Houthis’ Qasef-series, as well as the Iranian Ababil-T,
from which the former is at least derived,” drone expert Joseph
Trevithick wrote at The War Zone website (thedrive.com) in May.
Therefore,
the October 20 attack on Tanf is part of the wider context of drone
attacks by Iran or its proxies across the region. The importance of
defending against these kinds of threats and dominating the air is clear
for every country in the Middle East these days.
Israel
is hosting the Blue Flag exercise alongside air forces from the US,
Germany, France, Greece, India, Italy and the UK. The UAE’s air force
commander was in Israel this week.
The
overall context of the Tanf attack is that its complexity is a warning
for Israel. Like the Abqaiq attack by Iran, using drones and cruise
missiles in September 2019, another complex drone attack has taken place
in the region. Tehran is using the Houthis and militias in Iraq, as
well as Hamas, to test its drone technology.
Iran
also used drones to target a tanker in the Gulf of Oman in July. The
US, UK and Israel blamed the Islamic Republic for that attack, which
killed two crew members of the civilian ship. In that case, an Iranian
drone flew into the bridge of the ship, likely a targeted and purposeful
attempt to kill the crew.
Questions
about how Iran had the coordinates of the ship and was able to guide
the drone into that precise location remain to be answered. But it does
show that Iran’s deadly technology is increasing across the region.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/could-the-iran-drone-attack-on-us-in-syria-be-message-to-israel-683127
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