by Yaakov Lappin
Israel is waiting for Syria to stabilize, Lt. Col. (res.) Marco Moreno, a former senior IDF intelligence officer, tells JNS.
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A view of the Israeli and Syrian Hermon mountain
range, along the Golan Heights, on Feb. 8, 2024. Photo by Michael
Giladi/Flash90. |
Israel’s broadened military presence on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights buffer zone set up after the Yom Kippur War seems set to be long-term, following uncertainty over the possible approach by radical Sunni or Shi’ite elements to the Israeli border and the nature of the Syrian regime.
JNS has learned that a Feb. 18 report by Haaretz stating that Israel has built at least seven military outposts in the demilitarized zone, on the Syrian side, citing satellite imagery, is accurate.
The new outposts are considered vital strategic positions in the buffer zone separating Israel from Syria.
They span the entire demilitarized zone, from Mount Hermon in the north to Tel Kudna in the south, near the border area between Israel, Jordan and Syria, the report stated.
Lt. Col. (res.) Marco Moreno is a former senior officer in the Israel Defense Force’s Human Intelligence Unit 504 who was responsible for the Lebanon and Syria arenas, and the founder and commander from 2012 to 2016 of the IDF’s “Operation Good Neighbor,” which provided humanitarian aid to Syrians during the civil war.
Moreno told JNS on Monday, “In the Middle East, long-term could be between months and years. I think that the formula is that once the Israeli defense establishment feels that Syria is stabilized—first, that we are not faced with terror or violent acts, and second, that there are strategic points where we can assess with high certainty that will not exploited in order to harm us, to use it as a springboard to attack us—then the IDF will withdraw from these points and return them to other Syrian forces.”
He emphasized that the timeline for this remains uncertain.
“How long will that take? We don’t know. I know that the defense establishment is dealing with this, also through some form of dialogue with local elements, as the defense minister has said. We have to wait. I think the military is acting with discretion and is minimizing risk, and that is how it should be.”
Discussing the strategic significance of the new outposts, Moreno added, “The posts are truly important. They dominate firing positions and observation positions that overlook our territory, and some are also near the border area between Lebanon and Syria—this is related to the transfer of arms to Lebanon and Hezbollah. Therefore, it is correct that the IDF holds these points until it feels that the ground is stable enough to transfer them onward.”
Thwart any threat
On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the IDF’s extended presence in the buffer zone, saying that in “Syria, IDF forces will remain at Hermon Peak and in the buffer zone indefinitely to protect our communities and thwart any threat.”
He added, “We will not allow forces of the HTS [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel organization that toppled the Assad regime] organization or the new Syrian army to enter the area south of Damascus. We demand the complete demilitarization of southern Syria—in the Quneitra, Daraa, and As-Suwayda provinces—of the new regime’s forces. Additionally, we will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria.”
Responding to Netanyahu’s statement, Moreno said, “There is no doubt that this is a dramatic statement by the prime minister. It entails a very prolonged presence there. Because, practically speaking, how do you demilitarize southern Syria? And how do you ultimately ensure that it has actually happened?
“The Syrians, from their side, will say, ‘Listen, we are a sovereign state, we want to deploy forces here.’ It must be remembered that the Syrian army, during the Assad regime, generally adhered to the ceasefire agreement between us and them from 1974 regarding military forces—but it allowed terrorist elements to establish themselves in southern Syria.”
Moreno assessed that Israel is no so much concerned by regular Syrian army units as it is about various terrorist elements—”whether Hezbollah, or, for example, Al-Qaeda—groups that would operate near the border.”
According to Moreno, Israeli intelligence will play a crucial role in informing the political echelon of the situation on the ground, and whether and for how long Israel will need to stay on the Syrian side.
The former officer added that Netanyahu’s pledge to protect Syrian Druze communities “outed a policy that has existed for many years. There has always been a policy [by Israel] of extending support to Druze in Syria, even though some have operated against Israel, for example, in Khader village, where some cooperated with Hezbollah in the past. But due to the long-standing alliance with the Druze in Israel, Israel is committed to the safety of Druze communities in Syria.”
The IDF has also taken steps to enhance its operational response in the Golan Heights in recent months. On Dec. 3, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit announced the establishment of the Pereh (“Wild”) unit, which will operate under the 210th “Golan” Division, also known as the Bashan Formation. The new unit was created as a division-level force multiplier and consists of highly trained reservists described as reconnaissance and special unit members who are locals.
“Our eyes are fixed on the entire region—today, especially toward Syria,” Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday. “We will not allow a return to the reality of October 7—and so it will be.
“There is a new policy in southern Syria. The IDF will not allow hostile forces to establish themselves in the security zone of southern Syria—from here to the Suwayda-Damascus corridor—and will act against any threat,” the defense minister continued.
“We will strengthen ties with friendly populations in the area, fostering good neighborly relations, with an emphasis on the large Druze population,” Katz said. The IDF will remain at the summit of Mount Hermon and in the buffer zone indefinitely to ensure the security of the Golan Heights communities, the north, and all the residents of Israel.”
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He is
the in-house analyst at the Miryam Institute; a research associate at
the Alma Research and Education Center; and a research associate at the
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He is a
frequent guest commentator on international television news networks,
including Sky News and i24 News. Lappin is the author of Virtual Caliphate: Exposing the Islamist State on the Internet. Follow him at: www.patreon.com/yaakovlappin.
Source: https://www.jns.org/idfs-expanded-presence-on-syrian-side-of-buffer-zone-appears-long-term/
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