by Herb Keinon
Here’s one of the hard truths he needs to tell the Saudis: Hamas, not Israel, is their enemy and is working against their interests.
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During the Obama years, officials frequently lectured Israel on what its interests were, often repeating the refrain, “Friends need to tell each other hard truths.”
Then-secretary of state John Kerry used those exact words in a farewell speech on the Middle East. A clearly frustrated Kerry pinned the lion’s share of the blame for the stymied diplomatic process – an issue he hoped would win him a Nobel Peace Prize – on Israel and its settlements policy.
Fast forward eight years, and a new administration is in power. Its secretary of state, Marco Rubio, is at the start of his term, not the end. And, like Kerry, he needs to tell friends “hard truths” – but this time, those truths need to be directed at the Arab world, not Israel.
Rubio left Israel on Monday for Saudi Arabia, where this hard truth-telling campaign should begin.
Here’s one of the hard truths he needs to tell the Saudis: Hamas, not Israel, is their enemy and is working against their interests.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry erupted last week when US President Donald Trump suggested that the Arab states take in Gazan refugees – the same refugees whose plight they have bewailed for years – and when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a Channel 14 interview that “the Saudis can create a Palestinian state in Saudi Arabia; they have a lot of land over there.”
In response, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a blistering statement accusing the “Israeli occupation” of “ethnic cleansing” against their “Palestinian brothers in Gaza” – the same “Palestinian brothers” they refuse entry into their country, even as many would like temporary refuge from the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
The unhinged statement said the Israeli government doesn’t think the “Palestinian people deserve to live in the first place.”
Rubio, in the spirit of speaking honestly to friends – and the Saudis are friends of the United States and would like that friendship to be upgraded to an ironclad, NATO-style security pact – should tell Riyadh to direct its anger at Hamas.
Were it not for Hamas’s brutal invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, Gaza would not be in ruins, and the US president would not be discussing relocating its residents and taking over the coastal strip himself.
Heat from the street?
Furthermore, if Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is feeling the heat from his street over the Palestinian cause right now, it is a direct result of Hamas’s attack, which provoked a fierce Israeli response, fueled sympathy for the Palestinians across the Arab world, and emboldened public opposition to Arab governments’ efforts to reach an accommodation with Israel.
Saudi Arabia was on the verge of reaching an accommodation with Israel in September 2023. It pursued normalization with Israel because it viewed the trilateral deal – Israel-US-Saudi Arabia – as serving its own interests. One of the reasons that Hamas launched its invasion was to derail that deal. So, who is really working against Saudi interests?
Jordan and Egypt, which were just as incensed as the Saudis over Trump’s relocation proposal, have said that taking in Gazan refugees would threaten their national security. Saudi Arabia clearly shares that concern.
So, why not direct their outrage at Hamas for creating the situation that has put such a move on the table?
The second truth Rubio should convey to the Saudi crown prince is that a two-state solution is, at least for the foreseeable future, a nonstarter. After the October 7 massacre, no Israeli government will gamble with national security by further giving up territory for a Palestinian state – not for many, many years to come and until there are sweeping changes in Palestinian leadership and society.
The Palestinians were given a ministate in Gaza, which Hamas took over and turned into a launchpad for jihad against Israel rather than as a prosperous coastal hub, a “Riviera on the Mediterranean,” to use Trump’s terminology.
The Oslo-style, two-state solution envisioned a “safe passage between Gaza and the West Bank,” meaning that Gazans would be able to drive freely from Gaza to Hebron along a route that would take them directly past some of the kibbutzim and moshavim – such as Nahal Oz and Be’eri – where they carried out their October 7 pogroms.
Does anybody realistically believe that the Israeli public will accept that now? Does anybody seriously believe that the Israeli public, looking at the experience with Palestinian self-rule over the last 30 years, is going to say, “Well, that sure went well – let’s try it on a larger scale”?
And Rubio’s third “hard truth” to his Saudi interlocutors should be this: Riyadh is not doing anyone a favor by normalizing ties with Israel.
Would it be a game-changer if such a deal could be brokered? Of course. Would Israel benefit from it by gaining widespread acceptance in the Arab and Muslim world? Undeniably. Would this be a tremendous strategic benefit for Israel? Absolutely.
But Saudi Arabia would benefit just as much. Normalization would solidify a counterweight to Iran – its true regional threat – while opening the door to Israeli technology and, most importantly, securing the long-coveted US security pact.
Israelis want normalization with Saudi Arabia, but not at any cost. If the Saudis, as they are doing, are conditioning normalization to Israel’s agreeing to a Palestinian state, they will be disappointed. Ties with Saudi Arabia are important, but not at the price of Israel’s national security – and a Palestinian state is now widely seen by the Israeli public as something that would endanger the country’s security.
Jordan and Egypt won’t take Palestinian refugees because they feel it endangers their national security. Well, here’s another truth: Israel won’t accept a Palestinian state anytime soon for the same reason – because it would be a threat to national security, and that matters more to the vast majority of Israelis than even normalization with the Saudis.
Herb Keinon
Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-842540
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