by Mehmet Hasgüler and Murat Tüzünkan
1st part of 2
Cyprus is an island boxed in on three sides by Turkey and the countries of the Levant. On the streets of its divided capital Nicosia, silence prevails, except for the tick-tack sounds coming from the tables of the city's backgammon players, who gather every day in the city's coffee shops. The players are mainly old Cypriots. Many of them were once members of militias during the civil war. As they play, they reminisce about their conflict. Both Turks and Greeks populate this third-largest island of the Mediterranean. They hardly ever shared the same coffee shops even in the past when they were living in mixed communities. Now, they are living completely apart as the island is divided between the Turkish and Greek sections separated by the green line, patrolled by United Nations peacekeepers who first came to the island nearly half a century ago. The game for the future of Cyprus, however, is coming to an end. The island's Turkish and Greek inhabitants will either unite or divorce.
Background
Where is Cyprus? What happens there? Find a rusty boat, tie a Palestinian flag to the mast, as a host of activists have done in the past year, and it is a short journey southeast to Gaza. The news media cannot get enough of Gaza, but they pay little attention to Cyprus. The civil war started in 1964 and ended ten years later after a Turkish military intervention that divided the island between the Turkish north and the Greek south. This was the last major event. Cyprus does not get into the headlines very often. But drama is not everything. In the days before headlines were invented, Cyprus played an important role in the eastern Mediterranean. Its geographical position, which controls the sea outlets of the Suez Canal, Israel, and Turkey, has always guaranteed a bipolar society and made it a testing ground where Western and Eastern norms come into conflict and are either resolved or erupt in communal violence.
Cyprus, like Ireland, is a single island with two state entities and a history of violence between two communities. Only now, after decades of squabbling, war, and civil war, have fresh possibilities come on the horizon. Old hatreds between Greeks and Turks are gradually being superseded by a new source of identity through membership in the European Union. In 2004, U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan advanced an ambitious plan for reunification of the island alongside the option for EU membership. The plan eventually failed. The Turkish Cypriots supported it despite the fact that their leadership did not. Greek Cypriots, in contrast, showed they did not like the plan when three out of four voted against it.
Five years later, as hopes of reaching a peaceful settlement seem to evaporate almost daily, there are two crucial questions. First, why did a well-crafted and authoritative plan fail? The answer may lie in the fact that there are more than two sides here: Greek and Turkish Cypriots, each with their own political parties, then their root nations, Turkey and Greece, and now the U.N. and the EU. Everyone has an opinion. The second question is about the future. Today, for the first time in the island's long, conflict-dominated history, two leaders are in power who have not had any involvement in intercommunal fighting. On the contrary, their political pasts have been marked by an absolute commitment to a peaceful settlement. They resumed full-fledged talks in September 2008, raising hopes. However, after a series of negotiations, the picture is not bright even though they are aware that this is the last chance to reach a deal. Still, their positions closely resembled those of their nationalist predecessors. The window of opportunity is closing fast.
This article is an attempt to analyze the plan and the impact it has had on all the players. It will also examine possible ramifications of the success or failure of intercommunal talks. As Cyprus comes of age, some possible directions for the island have to be discussed.
The Annan Plan
Do Cypriots face a stalemate in their political life? Can they find a way to take their island out of its isolation and into a wider political arena? Kofi Annan's plan to reunite Cyprus was initiated in 2002, but its 2004 version was in the end rejected by both the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders. In the 2004 referendum, 75 percent of Greek Cypriots voted "no" to the Annan plan while the Turkish Cypriots initially voted in favor. Ironically, Greek Cypriot accession to the EU was slated for May 1, 2004, one week after the referendum. Rauf Denktaş, president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, had argued that the island's EU accession would mean its indirect annexation by Greece.[1] Disappointed by the Greek vote, Turkish Cypriots changed their minds about the Annan plan. According to a 2007 poll, 65 percent of Turkish Cypriots said they preferred two separate states instead of a united Cyprus.[2]
The plan was the result of direct talks from June to October 2002 and long negotiations between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. The two leaders, Denktaş and Glafkos Clerides, negotiated on the issues of security, territory, citizenship, the legislature, the executive of the common state, and the role of the president in a rotating presidency. They were unable to reach agreement on any of these issues. Local attitudes trumped international concerns.
Annan outlined the plan in a 138-page document[3] and gave Clerides and Denktaş one week to accept it as a basis for final negotiations. He wanted to submit his plan to twin referenda on March 30, 2004, just before the Republic of Cyprus was expected to sign an accession agreement with the EU, and he hoped that the short deadline would provoke Turkish Cypriots to support the plan since it was feared that their rejection would make the division permanent. Another hope was to unite Cyprus just before accession to the EU. The plan incorporated all the important milestones, principles, and agreements reached by the two sides, and offered the most comprehensive scheme ever to address the Cyprus question.
The Foundation Agreement. The Foundation Agreement, Appendix A of the plan,[4] established a new administrative system in line with the Greek Cypriot desire for a new state of affairs—as opposed to the new state for which the Turkish Cypriots longed. Whereas the Turkish vision of partnership states would have created a new entity to replace the Greek Republic of Cyprus, under the Annan plan, the republic would continue to exist but with a transformed structure. Article 2 of the Foundation Agreement provided for the United Cyprus Republic, an independent and sovereign state with a single legal personality and a federal government with two component states based on an indissoluble partnership. This republic was to be a member of the United Nations and of the European Union.
The 2004 Referendum. Both the Annan plan and the proposal of EU membership for what was to be the United Cyprus Republic were to be put to referendum on March 30, 2004, just before the April 16 EU Accession Treaty was to come into force.[5] As a result of the referendum, however, the split between the two communities continued. Turkish Cypriots became suspicious. Did their Greek counterparts want to live and work with them or did they want to reduce the Turkish Cypriot status from community to minority? The proposed Republic of Cyprus was to be a bi-communal state based on the equal political representation of Turks and Greeks. That equality was to be maintained regardless of the fact that Turks made up only about 18 percent of the island's population. "Community" is a loaded political term that represents equal status for Turkish Cypriots. "Minority," in contrast, represents a lesser status. For Turkish Cypriots, a major reason for supporting the Annan plan was a belief that it would spell an end to their isolation. Mehmet Ali Talat, now president of Turkish Cyprus, promised his people that voting "yes" would link them to the outside world. At the same time, he said they would resume their political status as an equal partner community in the new state, along with the Greeks.[6]
The View from Northern Cyprus
To Turkish Cypriots, the Annan plan appeared in a more positive light, as an arrangement that would help break the 30-year diplomatic stalemate and enable northern Cyprus to enter the EU and link itself directly to the outside world. Normalization would free the north from sometimes antidemocratic and incompetent interference from Turkey.[7] Such interference took place, for example, after the September 12, 1980 coup d'état in Turkey. In August 1981, the Turkish government sent their minister of foreign affairs, Ilter Türkmen, to the island. The purpose of his visit was to hinder the formation of the Turkish Cypriot cabinet that included members of the left-wing opposition.[8]
On November 15, 1983, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was proclaimed, but the U.N. Security Council immediately annulled its status as an independent state and only Turkey and the Organization of the Islamic Conference recognized it, leaving the Greek-controlled Republic of Cyprus as the only legitimate authority on the entire island.[9] Turkish Cypriots had previously founded the Turkish Cypriot Federate State in 1976, which survived for seven years. During this period, the "federate" state concept served to indicate that the Cypriot Turks were committed to a bi-communal federal state. This state was to be founded between Turks and Greeks as agreed on in the 1977 and 1979 high-level agreements created under the auspices of the U.N. However, independence was declared in 1983 for mainly domestic reasons: to weaken the opposition and to remove the term limits clauses from the new constitution that restricted President Denktaş to two terms.[10] This allowed the Turkish authorities to use Denktaş to support the Turkish bureaucracy and to suppress political rivals. Northern Cypriot politics were consolidated under center-right control within the next two decades. Internationally, independence was presented as the right to self-determination for Turkish Cypriots, an idea that was not endorsed by the international community and the United Nations.
Because Denktaş had not wanted to put the Annan plan to a referendum, trade unionists set up ballot boxes against his wishes to try and determine Turkish Cypriots' views on the Annan plan.[11] This was a symbolic act, but it helped persuade world public opinion that Turkish Cypriots were in favor of the plan. At the same time, the Turkish Cypriot government, now under the leadership of Mehmet Ali Talat, planned to develop good relations with Turkey's pro-Islamist Justice and Development Party.[12] The main aim of Talat's visits to Europe and the United States before and after the referendum was to express Turkish Cypriot support for the Annan plan and a U.N.-based solution to the Cyprus problem.[13] His visits have also helped Turkey in its negotiations for EU membership.
Proposals Arising from the Annan Plan. Foreign aid is meaningful when it is aimed at developing and modernizing a country's economy. In the past, temporary and speculative investments have been more common in Cyprus than long-term ones. There have been improvements in education and tourism, but this has not been due to a general policy—rather, it is limited to certain institutions and has been accomplished because of their individual efforts. The fact that northern Cyprus still lacks a serious economic policy undercuts its achievements.
Cypriot parties which support unification must advance new policies that seek to defuse the atmosphere of antagonism. A promising move would be to empower local initiatives that help foster intercommunal trust and cooperation. The Annan plan can be allowed to evolve slowly as Cypriots build lasting peace. Such a peace must be established by internal means and not by foreign aid and support.
Greek Cypriot politicians often utilize the rhetoric of another Turkish military operation, fueling long-standing Greek Cypriot fears that Turkey would invade the entire island. The Turkish side, in contrast, claims that it has no ambition to control Cyprus as a whole, arguing that Turkey could have done so in 1974 when the Greek defense collapsed. That is why the Turkish military in Cyprus is labeled a "peace force" by the Turks while for Greek Cypriots it is simply a large occupation force.
Demilitarization. In order to achieve demilitarization, Cypriots will have to organize a serious counter-movement to the British sovereign bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia. While the goal should be the removal of the British bases in Cyprus, the expulsion of all foreign powers from the island is worth planning for. These powers include Turkey, Greece, Great Britain, and the United States (which uses the British bases for logistic, humanitarian, and intelligence purposes). Around 40,000 Turkish troops are stationed in the Turkish controlled area. Similarly, an unknown number of Greek soldiers serve as advisors in the Greek Cypriot National Guard, the republic's land, air, and naval force. Since 1964, U.N. troops have served as peacekeepers. After a settlement, any foreign military presence on Cyprus would be minimized or eradicated.
Mehmet Hasgüler and Murat Tüzünkan
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