by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Murderous jihadi group's Sinai-based offshoots pose a threat not only to Egypt, but also to the West, Russia and Israel.
The Islamic State group
has been touting the killing of "Russian crusaders," namely the downing
of Metrojet Flight 9268 over the Sinai Peninsula on Oct. 31 with 224
people aboard, as a major achievement in its retribution campaign
against Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Russian involvement in
the Syrian civil war.
Putin could not have
imagined that his gambit in Syria would exact such a heavy price, but
his considerations are not the issue. The issue is the leap in the level
of threat Islamic State's offshoots in Sinai pose to the Egyptian
regime, the Sinai tourism industry, and to Israel, which is no stranger
to terrorist attacks on its southern border.
Al-Qaida and its
nefarious ilk have been struggling to replicate the horrific success of
the 9/11 attacks, no doubt because of the security clampdown worldwide,
but also because terrorist groups have lost territorial strongholds that
allowed them to prepare for an operation of that scope. At the time,
Taliban-controlled Afghanistan was the logistic point of departure for
the terrorists, but the American invasion of Afghanistan left the
terror group devoid of its main base of operations.
Islamic State's
considerable grip on Iraq and Syria, in the heart of the Middle East,
and the abundance of foreign funding it is given have a significant
effect on the threats in the bigger regional picture. Islamic State uses
the expansive territory it controls to continue targeting Arab nations,
but it also has the West, Russia and Israel in its sights.
Islamic State's
offshoot Wilayat Sinai, formerly Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, has become the
strongest player among the terrorist groups roaming the desert
peninsula.
The past few years have
seen Wilayat Sinai stage several deadly attacks against Israeli
interests, proving that having a strong physical presence on the ground
on the one hand, and a direct line to logistical and financial support
from a parent terrorist group in Syria and Iraq on the other, is a
lethal combination.
Moscow and Cairo are
likely to spend the next few days wrestling over questions of egos and
the affront they suffered at the hands of London and Washington, whose
officials were quick to announce they had evidence suggesting it was a
bomb that caused the Russian airliner to disintegrate in midair; but
sooner or later, the Russians and the Egyptians will have to admit what
the global community already knows -- this was an act of terrorism.
Egypt is concerned, and
rightfully so, over the crippling blow such an admission would deal to
its tourism industry, invaluable to the country's struggling economy.
Nevertheless, Cairo knows that whoever was able to sneak an explosive
device onto a foreign airliner will be able to carry out equally
sophisticated attacks in Egypt proper, and therefore it must confront
the issue head on.
The main questions
still unanswered are how the device was made, how it was smuggled into
Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport, and most importantly, how it was
planted on the Russian plane. Much as when the smuggling industry in
Sinai was flourishing, before the Egyptian crackdown on Hamas and its
grid of tunnels, there is no shortage of security officials -- corrupt
or simply inept -- willing to turn a blind eye for a price.
While the immediate
problem is that of Egypt and Russia, it may soon become an issue
plaguing the international community, including Israel. Islamic State's
recent video, issuing a series of threats in broken Hebrew, was
dismissed by the Israeli defense establishment, but it has become clear
that this jihadi group is able to both aim high and follow through.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=14281
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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