Friday, March 18, 2016

Trump rated the sixth highest global risk - Ari Yashar

by Ari Yashar

London-based research group posits that a Trump presidential victory is a higher risk than South China Sea war, same level as jihadi terror. [Editor: "Grain of salt" advisory - although there are some valid points here.]

A London-based research group has estimated that Donald Trump winning the US presidency is the sixth largest risk facing the future of the world.

The surprising ranking by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), reported on Thursday by BBC, is backed by warnings that the real estate mogul could disrupt the global economy and spike political and security dangers domestically in the US.

According to the report, which is based on impact and probability, a Trump victory gets a global risk rating of 12, with 25 being the highest possible risk.

That 12 rating is the same level as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy." Likewise the EIU posits that Trump would be more dangerous than Britain leaving the European Union (EU), or an armed clash in the South China Sea where superpowers China and Japan are tensely facing off against one another.

Trump was ranked just under the risk of the EU fracturing, while China experiencing a "hard landing" and Russia's Ukraine and Syria interventions sparking a new "cold war" top the list.

"Thus far Mr. Trump has given very few details of his policies - and these tend to be prone to constant revision," wrote the EIU in its report.

The research group estimated that Trump will not defeat Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, in a prediction made on an unclear basis.

Continuing its appraisal of the "risk" posed by Trump, EIU said, "he has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably Nafta, and has repeatedly labelled China as a 'currency manipulator.'"

His strong language towards Mexico over illegal immigration and China over trade arrangements "could escalate rapidly into a trade war," it said.

"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East and ban on all Muslim travel to the US would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond," claimed the group.

However, EIU predicted Trump would not likely be able to get his initiatives passed, saying, "innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress."

Regarding Republican opposition, GOP leaders on Thursday are to meet and discuss a possible independent run to try and derail Trump's path to the nomination, as currently he appears set to win the Republican primaries.

Ari Yashar


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