Defense officials: Assad will regain control of most of Syria within one year - Lilach Shoval

by Lilach Shoval

Top defense officials believe that U.S. and moderate Sunni states' decision to halt aid to Syrian rebel groups and Iran's growing involvement in the war-torn country have ensured the survival of Assad's regime

Syrian President Bashar Assad walks with military personnel during a visit to a military site in Darayya, southwest of Damascus | Photo credit: Reuters

Embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad is likely to regain control of most of Syria's territory by the end of 2018, senior defense officials told Israel Hayom Tuesday. 

The assessment is based on several regional and international processes, chiefly the U.S.'s decision to halt aid to Syrian rebel groups fighting to unseat Assad and Washington's apparent loss of interest in the outcome of the six-year civil war; the fact that moderate Sunni states have also rolled back their support of the rebels and, in contrast, Iran's massive support of the Assad regime.

Until recently, the prevailing assessment in the Israeli defense establishment was that Syria would not revert to the political situation that existed before the civil war erupted in March 2011, and that Syria was destined to split into autonomous territories based on the geographic control of the local ethnic groups. The current assessment, however, speaks of Assad's renewed takeover of Syria and contradicts former Defense Minister Ehud Barak's 2011 assessment that the Assad regime would collapse by 2012. 

According to defense officials, the turnabout that marked the beginning of this shift came in 2014, when the Obama administration shifted its focus from the efforts to topple Assad to the war against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, a change that effectively spared Assad's regime. Massive airstrikes by the Russian Air Force against other rebel groups also contributed to Assad's political survival, and his renewed control of Syria is growing by the day. 

The change in the defense establishment's assessment also stems from the fact that the Trump administration seems to have shifted its focus from Syria to domestic issues and more pressing international issues, such as the threat posed by North Korea. 

According to U.S. media, President Donald Trump has recently ordered the CIA to end its clandestine program to provide weapons and supplies to Syrian rebel groups. The program was launched in 2013, and halting it has impaired the rebels' efforts to unseat Assad. They suffered another blow when the moderate Sunni countries decided to all but withdraw their support, and the situation has been compounded by Iran's efforts to quickly fill the void, tilting the balance of power in Assad's favor. 

Iran's efforts to entrench itself militarily in Syria and Lebanon, Israel's neighbors to the north are a cause for serious concern, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Iran's efforts may drag the Middle East into war. 

Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman met Tuesday with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who is visiting Israel, and told him that "Iran is trying to establish a new reality in Syria and change the geo-strategic balance in the region in a way that will affect Israel, and we have no intention of allowing it.

"Iran plans to build air and naval bases in Syria, bring over thousands of Shiite mercenaries to the area and create a corridor from Iran, through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, which will enable it to smuggle sophisticated weapons [into the area] and to establish a Shiite hegemony that will threaten the entire region, first and foremost Israel. This prospect is intolerable as far as Israel is concerned," Lieberman said.

Military intelligence suggests that Iran has "imported" some 10,000 Shiite mercenaries into Syria, brought over from places such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. The defense establishment believes Iran aims to use these mercenaries as "cannon fodder" as it bolsters its control over Syria. 

The Islamic republic has already sent upwards of 2,000 Iranian advisers to Syria to help Assad's government, and the Hezbollah terrorist group -- Iran's proxy in Lebanon -- has been fighting alongside the Syrian army and gaining valuable operational experience that has greatly boosted its operatives' confidence. 

Israel's top political and military echelons are determined to prevent Iran from establishing its grip on Syrian soil. While diplomatic efforts are ongoing, some in the defense establishment believe no one will do Israel's "dirty work" for it. According to senior defense officials, if in the coming months diplomatic efforts prove futile, Israel may have to make "difficult decisions."

Netanyahu alluded to this possibility in his meeting with the U.N. chief Tuesday, saying, "We have the right not to prevent the noose from tightening around Israel's neck."

Lilach Shoval

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=44987

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