by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
The increasing rocket fire from Gaza at Israel reflects a tragic reality in which neither Israel nor the Palestinians want a confrontation, but both sides may be helpless to stop it
The increasing tensions along the Israel-Gaza border are the result of several seemingly unrelated events.
They began with the Oct. 31 demolition of an Islamic Jihad terror tunnel dug
from Gaza into Israel. Several senior Islamic Jihad operatives were
killed during the operation and the terrorist group vowed to exact
revenge – which it has yet to enact.
The
situation destabilized further when the reconciliation talks between
rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah hit a major obstacle stemming
from the fact that each faction has a different interpretation of what reconciliation means.
Hamas wants
to maintain its considerable weapons arsenal and its grip on the
coastal enclave, and would like to see the Palestinian Authority being
held responsible for Gaza's image while having no real power there.
But
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas wants to regain actual
control of Gaza, including disarming Hamas. Unless one of the factions
is willing to revise its demands, this is not a bridgeable gap.
The third factor contributing to the tensions is U.S. President Donald Trump's decision on Dec. 6 to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital.
The
Palestinian backlash over the U.S. announcement included calls by Hamas
for a third intifada, and boisterous protests from Abbas, who decried
Trump's "flagrant violation of international law" and declared that the
U.S. could no longer serve as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian
peace process over its "obvious" pro-Israel bias.
Fanning the flames
The
Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad exploited the volatile atmosphere and,
alongside several smaller Gaza-based Salafi terrorist groups, fired
rockets at southern Israel.
The usually
more cautious Hamas and the more aggressive Islamic Jihad have been
overtly encouraged by Iran, which pledged to lend the Palestinian
terrorist groups its full financial and military support in mounting
"resistance aimed at blocking the implications" of the U.S. move.
Meanwhile, earlier this week the IDF discovered and destroyed a Hamas terror tunnel
dug under the border, making it clear to the Palestinians that such
incidents are not the exception to the rule, but rather another phase in
the military's development of advanced technological and operational
capabilities that soon will enable Israel to neutralize the tunnel
threat altogether.
The tunnels
did not enable terrorist groups to tip the balance of power in their
favor in the past, but the hysteria in Israel over the threat required
the military to devote considerable attention to this issue, and now it
is possible to reap the benefits of this effort and allay the concerns
expressed by the residents of the border-adjacent communities.
Like the
rockets, which are still fired at Israel despite the success of the Iron
Dome defense system in intercepting most of them, the tunnel threat has
not been completely neutralized. It will, however, be far more
difficult for terrorists to use them in times of war, essentially
rendering the threat empty.
The
convergence of these factors fueled Palestinian activity that fans the
flames. Israel, for its part, is sparing no effort to contain events,
but IDF retaliation over terrorist rocket fire is designed to clarify to
Hamas that Israel holds it responsible for everything that transpires
in Gaza and that it will be made to pay, even if the conflict has been a
low-intensity one so far.
As Israel
holds Hamas accountable, the majority of targets struck so far – with
surgical precision – have been Hamas posts. Israel has made sure to
limit its strikes to peripheral targets, avoiding major installations or
senior Hamas officials. This policy seeks to exact a price from Hamas
while allowing it to contain the situation, thus avoiding a rapid
security escalation.
But where
is all this leading? Iran is clearly pushing for an escalation, as it
does not care about the plight of Gaza's residents as long as Israel
suffers both rocket fire and the foreseeable international condemnation
over any large-scale military campaign it may mount in response.
Turkey may
play a much smaller role but it has close ties with Hamas, so it would
not surprise anyone to learn that Ankara is pouring fuel on the small
fire burning in Gaza.
Egypt, on the other hand, has no interest in seeing a security escalation, nor does it have any real sway over Hamas.
As for
Hamas, Gaza's rulers are in no rush to provoke a full-scale Israeli
operation in the enclave. They have a good grasp of Israel's abilities
to undercut the organization's military infrastructure and they are
aware of the heavy toll a conflict would take on the Palestinian public.
But in the
current reality, in which rockets hit southern Israel on a daily basis,
there is no real way to ensure the situation will not spiral out of
control. Any incident that results in Israeli casualties could prompt a
harsh response that would, in turn, make Hamas remove its self-imposed
limitations.
One has to
remember that the events in the Gaza Strip are not completely
controllable, both because Hamas does not employ all the means at its
disposal to prevent an escalation and because the rogue terrorist
groups, led by Islamic Jihad, care very little about the fate of Gaza's
residents and continue firing rockets at Israel while ignoring the
impending threat of escalation.
The
potential for both sides to lose control of the situation is therefore
very high, despite the fact that neither Israel nor Hamas want that to
happen.
A cold Islamic world
The steady
rise in tensions on the southern border comes against the backdrop of
Hamas' continued failure to carry out major riots or terrorist attacks
in Judea and Samaria. This may change over the incitement seen at the
emergency session called
by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul on Wednesday
over the U.S.'s Jerusalem move, and over the Palestinians' perception
that Trump's decision has made the Muslim world rally to support them.
But the
truth is, the Islamic world is cold, cynical and interest-driven. It has
failed to rally to help the Muslims butchered in Syria by other
Muslims; and it has done nothing to stop the war raging in Yemen, where
Iran and Turkey are fanning the flames in the name of past Persian and
Ottoman empires, which were known for inflicting pain and suffering on
the Arabs.
It is no
wonder that a substantial part of the Arab world expressed its aversion
of the summit. This created a Saudi-Egyptian-Gulf states axis opposing
the gathering, facing a Turkish-Iranian axis to which the Palestinian
Authority and Jordan joined, pushing for confrontation.
This put
Ramallah and Amman opposite the U.S. – a superpower on which both are
heavily dependent – and its regional allies, and it remains to be seen
whether this move will have any far-reaching repercussions for Jordan
and the Palestinian Authority.
One must
also consider that the summit would affect the tensions in the south.
The Gaza-based terrorist groups may be inspired by the anti-Israel
atmosphere in the gathering and exacerbate their aggression. The price,
as always, will be paid by the residents of the Gaza Strip – not by
those inciting terrorism, the leaders of Iran and Turkey.
Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2017/12/15/countdown-to-a-conflict/
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