by Yigal Carmon
Following the September 18 downing of an Ilyushin-20 plane by Syrian missiles, Russia's mask dropped, and the true anti-Israel face of its policy was fully revealed.
A year ago,
Russia's mask of non-hostility towards Israel was still in place, in the
form of strategic coordination with Israel regarding the latter's
bombings in Syria. This allowed it to conceal that it fully sided with
Israel's enemies – Syria and Iran. Even as it refrained from trying to
stop Israel from bombing Iranian targets in Syria – as if it could have
prevented this – it was at the same time enabling and sponsoring Iran's
expansion into Syria.
An article I
wrote a year ago presented the unvarnished facts about Russia's support
for Iran's expansion in Syria at the expense of Israel's national
security.[1] It asserted that the Iranian forces' presence in Syria
constituted an existential threat to Israel. It further explained, for
the benefit of those who could not conceive of Putin as so anti-Israel –
after all, he had made Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu a guest of
honor at the Moscow Victory Day parade in Red Square in May – that this
was nothing personal against Israel, but, as they say in the Mafia, just
business connected to Russia's rivalry with the U.S. In truth, the
strategic Israel-Russia coordination of Israeli bombings in Syria served
Russian interests: Israel declared that it would continue the bombings
no matter what, and an Israel-Russia military escalation could only draw
the U.S. into the melee and expose Russia as a mere regional power that
was no match for the U.S.
Following the
September 18 downing of an Ilyushin-20 plane by Syrian missiles,
Russia's mask dropped, and the true anti-Israel face of its policy was
fully revealed. Indeed, Putin first attempted to conceal it by
refraining from fully blaming Israel for the tragedy. But soon enough he
joined his subordinates in blaming Israel, and announced that Russia
would equip Syria with S-300 missile systems, which would, inter alia,
protect Iranian forces in Syria from Israeli attacks.
Now the
picture is crystal clear: The Russians, who originally enabled and
sponsored the Iranian expansion in Syria as an anti-U.S. measure, will
now also protect the Iranians in Syria from Israeli attacks. This
constitutes an undeclared act of war against Israel by an enemy, i.e.
Russia – since it will not be the Syrians operating the S-300s against
Israeli aircraft, because they yet face a long learning curve to do
this; it will, for an indeterminate time, be Russian officers.
But with
Russia's equipping Syria with S-300s, and their inevitable operation by
Russian officers against Israeli aircraft, the Russians risk a major
military and technological debacle. They will learn, if they haven't yet
from the Ilyushin tragedy, that Israeli-American technology is far
superior to Russia's – and that goes not just for the S-300s now being
shipped to the Syrians, but also for the S-300s and S-400s that Russia
already has in place in Syria for its own defense. Perhaps only an
internal Russian military investigation can show what these systems were
doing when the Ilyushin was shot down.
Russian
Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu rejects the Israeli version of events,
according to which the Israeli planes were already back over Haifa when
the Ilyushin was shot down. The Russians argue that the radar picture
showed an Israeli plane using the Ilyushin as a shield. A possible
explanation for this, revealed by the Israeli daily Haaretz, is
that the radar picture available to the Russians was not actual, but
was the product of Israel's electronic warfare. Given that this will
continue to be part of any future Israeli bombing, the advanced Russian
missile defense systems will be rendered no longer marketable. Perhaps
this is why the Russians, upon announcing that they will deliverer
S-300s to Syria, simultaneously announced their willingness to negotiate
with the U.S. on this delivery, in order to avert any possible clashes
with Israel and their ramifications.
Russia's true
face has been revealed not only in the military/strategic sphere – by
providing S-300s to Syria – but also by its reversion to the old
Russian/Soviet antisemitism that not even Russian President Putin's
"special relationship" with Chabad can camouflage. Former Israeli
Ambassador to Russia Zvi Magen noted: "The media blamed Israel on the
day of crisis in a well-timed orchestrated manner, filled with
antisemitic elements. This wasn't random."[2] Given Russia's actual policy towards Israel, this should come as no surprise.
[1] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 138, The Russia-Iran Axis: An Existential Threat To Israel's Security – A Wakeup Call, October 23, 2017.
[2] JNS, September 26, 2018.
Yigal Carmon is president and founder of The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). From 1988-93, he served as an advisor on countering terrorism to two successive Israeli prime ministers.
Source: memri.org
Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter
No comments:
Post a Comment