by Veronica Neifakh
Faced with mounting military, economic, and political pressures, Iran may seek to strike Israel in the coming days, although experts say escalating Iranian rhetoric could be mere bluster
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Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has placed the Israeli military on high alert, warning that Iran may take extreme measures against Israel in the coming days. According to a report from Walla News, this heightened caution stems from escalating tensions in Iran in the country’s economic, political, and military spheres.
Unnamed defense sources cited in the report indicate that these factors, combined with uncertainty surrounding the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House later this month, could push Tehran toward aggressive actions. Given the complex and unpredictable nature of Iran’s current situation, Israeli military leadership is preparing for a range of possible scenarios, though specific details were not disclosed.
This attack would be the third direct Iranian attack on Israel since the war began, following major strikes in April 2024 and October 2024.
Meir Litvak, a senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, said that the most likely target for a potential Iranian attack is domestic Israeli infrastructure rather than Israeli embassies abroad.
“I can imagine another major missile attack—this could be one option. Another option could be an attempt to target Israeli natural gas drilling stations or a major cyberattack aimed at paralyzing a critical system in Israel,” Litvak told The Media Line.
He advised Israeli civilians to be cautious but to avoid panicking, noting that more information will likely be available soon.
Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Institute for National Security Studies’ Iran program, said that Iran has long promised a third attack on Israel following the attacks in April and November of last year.
“They’ve conducted the second attack, but the third one seems stuck, and they’re very frustrated about that,” he told The Media Line. “Over the past few days, there have been a lot of promises in Iranian media—saying they will act at the right place and time, and that it will surely come.”
He explained that the Iranian military is currently conducting a major exercise involving air, naval, and ground forces. “There’s a concern they could use this exercise as a cover for launching an attack, similar to what Egypt and Syria did in 1973—starting with a maneuver and turning it into a war,” Sabti said.
Timing and Motives
Litvak said that the timing of a potential Iranian attack might be linked to the upcoming change in the US administration.
“Probably, they want to set something in motion, assuming [US President Joe] Biden would hesitate to respond strongly in the last few days of his term,” he said. “They may hope to act before Trump takes office, thinking Biden won’t respond decisively and that Trump won’t retaliate immediately upon taking power.”
He said that Iran may be attempting to force Trump to react to an already escalating situation.
Sabti emphasized that Iran’s recent rhetoric may be aimed at increasing psychological pressure on Israel rather than actual escalation. “These statements are about showing strength—saying, ‘We are here. We exist. You didn’t beat us.’ It’s a way of thinking rooted in Iranian and Shiite culture,” he said.
He compared current Iranian rhetoric to that of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah when he insisted that his group had achieved victory in the 2006 war with Israel despite incurring significant losses.
While Iran may talk a big talk, Sabti said it likely understands the sensitivity of the current moment. “If they’re already this afraid of Trump, and he’s not even in the White House yet, what will they do when he actually takes office?” he said.
“Israel has improved its defenses, and Iran lacks proper protection,” he continued. “I just can’t imagine them taking such a risk.”
Iranian Strategy and Limitations
Litvak described Iran’s current position as one of internal debate following setbacks in Syria and Lebanon. “Should they reconsider or restructure their proxy strategy—perhaps relying more on Iraqi militias and less on Hezbollah—or should they abandon the proxy strategy altogether and instead focus on nuclear deterrence? There are voices in Iran now calling for a full commitment to nuclear weapons,” he said.
He said that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has likely not yet made a decision about how to move forward. “The Iranians certainly suffered a setback, but they may want to show that despite this, they remain powerful and undeterred,” he said.
Sabti said that Iranian proxies are unlikely to be involved in a potential attack. “Which proxy? Hezbollah has its own problems—no money, no command,” he said. “Iraqi militias have put their guns aside, especially with Trump about to take office. That leaves us only with the Houthis, but they’re occupied with their own issues.”
Iranian domestic issues, including fuel shortages and electricity outages, may complicate Khamenei’s decision-making. “They have to decide whether pursuing a foreign venture is wise while facing such difficulties at home,” Litvak said.
Sabti said that Iran may not be able to afford an attack on Israel. “They’re facing their worst economic situation ever,” he said. “Inflation is out of control—basic food prices have risen by 70% or more, and there are daily electricity shortages lasting six or seven hours. They can’t even provide clean air and water.”
“They still have to face their own people,” he continued. “How many times can they tell the population to eat ideology instead of bread?”
Israeli Preparedness
Without support from the US, Israel is not capable of complete defense against an Iranian attack, Litvak said, estimating that Iran still possesses more than 1,000 ballistic missiles.
“For a major missile attack, we have protection, but we don’t have enough anti-missile systems to intercept all Iranian missiles,” he said. “This is why we need American support. If they launch, say, 400 missiles, we’ll face a problem. We can intercept some of the missiles, and others may fall into open areas, but it remains a significant issue.”
While acknowledging that Israel currently enjoys significant support from the US, Litvak expressed concerns about future American aid to Israel under the coming Trump administration and in the transition period. “I fear that our current government is making every effort to make Israel unpopular in the US,” he said. “My great fear is that eventually, we may lose American support. The Americans may grow tired of us.”
Sabti, on the other hand, said that Israel was likely well prepared to face another Iranian strike. “I don’t have exact military knowledge, but Israel is very good at learning lessons and improving its systems,” he said. “Unlike Iran, where they don’t criticize themselves or reassess their strategies, Israel constantly evaluates and upgrades its capabilities.”
He
highlighted Israel’s multilayered defense system, mentioning the recent
interception of a Houthi missile by an American system as an example of
effective cooperation. “There are layers upon layers of defense, and
Israel also has other actions it can take. We’ve seen surprises before,
so I wouldn’t rule anything out,” he said.
Veronica Neifakh
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-836434
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