by Ben Whedon
The GOP currently holds a narrow majority in the lower chamber and can ill afford even a small number of defectors. Democrats are doing their best to exploit any dissonance in the GOP.
President-elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have confirmed their plans to bundle border security, taxes, and energy proposals into a single mega-bill, seemingly hoping to pressure Republican moderates to back the less palatable proposals by tying them to key Republican agenda items.
"Members of Congress are getting to work on one powerful Bill that will bring our Country back, and make it greater than ever before. We must Secure our Border, Unleash American Energy, and Renew the Trump Tax Cuts, which were the largest in History, but we will make it even better - NO TAX ON TIPS," Trump confirmed on Monday.
The GOP currently holds a narrow majority in the lower chamber and can't afford even a small number of defectors. The past Congress saw Johnson and his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, struggle to keep dissident Republicans in the party’s conservative wing in line, leading to leadership change and a number of embarrassing votes.
Even during the leadership contest last week, Johnson looked ready to fail in his leadership bid on the first ballot, when three Republicans backed another candidate. He ultimately won two of the holdouts over and took the gavel on the first ballot after Trump's pressure.
Much of the Republican dissent stems from conservative dissatisfaction with the party’s unwillingness to substantively cut spending. During the last budget cycle, moreover, Trump’s bid to suspend the debt limit generated considerable pushback from lawmakers such as Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas.
“We don't have a lot of wiggle room. That's why we have to get everybody on board with everything,” Rep. Glenn Grothman, R-Wis., said in December on the “Just the News, No Noise” television show. “You’ve got to remember, we can only afford to lose one person in the House. You know, we can only afford to lose, what about four people in the U.S. Senate? So we've got to get everything that we need to make America great again in that first big bill that is going to be passed in, presumably, February or March.”
At the time, Trump’s advisors appeared to prioritize his tax proposals while the House favored addressing border legislation. The division had some lawmakers floating the prospect of separate packages, but the ultimate decision to merge the bills seems to be a strategy to get both over the line in the narrowly divided lower chamber.
Incoming White House Deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller in December opined that the division on uniting or splitting the packages was a matter of “running the plays” rather than a division on the policies themselves.
Bundling proposals
Trump explicitly signaled that his policy of ending taxation on tips would be part of the comprehensive package, as would a renewal of the tax cuts from his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. While his Truth Social post did not get more specific, Trump made a number of tax, border, and energy-related promises while on the campaign trail that are likely to make it into the bill.
Among the tax proposals were promises to end taxation of social security benefits and overtime pay, as well as a “15% Made in America tax rate” for companies that manufacture their products in the United States. He further promised to end the $10,000 state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from the TCJA.
On immigration, Trump hopes to complete the construction of the border wall and to reinstate the Remain-in-Mexico policy requiring asylum seekers to await their immigration court date in that country rather than within the U.S. interior. Some measure of border wall funding is expected to appear in the bill, though it remains unclear whether Remain in Mexico will be a part of the package.
While the mega-bill might effectively bring Republicans in the lower chamber into the fold, the GOP will still have to contend with a 60-vote filibuster threshold in the Senate, where they only have 53 votes. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is counted among those favoring split packages on the border and taxes. He has expressed support for Trump’s agenda, saying they “have the same set of objectives” but has sought to temper legislative expectations.
“I think my job is to do everything I can to help him be a success,” he said this week on “Face the Nation,” adding that he would have to help Trump understand “what’s realistic” in the upper chamber.
The Trump transition team has not responded to a request for comment as of press time.
Ben Whedon
Source: https://justthenews.com/government/congress/trumps-border-taxes-mega-bill-sets-game-chicken-gop-moderates
No comments:
Post a Comment