Monday, February 2, 2026

Kurds in Iraq are powerbrokers in Iraq’s politics, but do they benefit? - analysis - Seth J. Frantzman

 

by Seth J. Frantzman

Iraqi Shi’ite leaders arrived in Erbil for talks with Kurdish officials as political deadlock deepens over appointing a new president and prime minister.

 

Supporters of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gather to protest what they say is U.S. interference in Iraq’s sovereignty near the entrance to the Green Zone, which houses the U.S. embassy and other missions, in Baghdad, Iraq, January 29, 2026.
Supporters of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gather to protest what they say is U.S. interference in Iraq’s sovereignty near the entrance to the Green Zone, which houses the U.S. embassy and other missions, in Baghdad, Iraq, January 29, 2026.
(photo credit: REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI)

According to reports on February 2, a delegation of Iraq’s Shi’ite Coordination Framework arrived in the Kurdistan Region’s capital of Erbil on Monday to meet with the Kurdish leadership.

The meeting is taking place because Iraq’s political leaders have been thrown into turmoil, and the country is having trouble appointing a new president and prime minister. The office of the president has usually been held by a Kurd.

In the past, the position of president of Iraq was often held by a Kurd from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party (PUK). The Kurdish leadership in Erbil is dominated by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which is often a rival of the PUK.

However, on some issues, the Kurdish parties coordinate closely. Regarding Baghdad, this is sometimes one of the issues they work together on. The reasons that a Kurd holds the presidency are a result of the post-2003 US invasion constitution and consensus in Iraq. Iraq was led by Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab dictator, for many decades.

After his fall, the concept was that Shi’ites would usually be prime minister, while a Kurd would be president and a Sunni would be speaker of parliament. In some ways, this is how Lebanon’s politics is also organized along sectarian lines.

A supporter of Iraqi Shi'ite armed groups burns a poster with red X marks on the images of a U.S. flag and U.S. President Donald Trump during a protest against what they say is U.S. interference in Iraq’s sovereignty, near the entrance of the Green Zone, home to the U.S. embassy and other missions,
A supporter of Iraqi Shi'ite armed groups burns a poster with red X marks on the images of a U.S. flag and U.S. President Donald Trump during a protest against what they say is U.S. interference in Iraq’s sovereignty, near the entrance of the Green Zone, home to the U.S. embassy and other missions, (credit: REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Although the KDP is the larger Kurdish party, there is a kind of trade-off where the KDP runs the Kurdistan autonomous region, or KRG, and PUK gets to be the largely ceremonial Iraqi president.

A report at The New Region said that Iraq’s current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, arrived in Erbil with the Coordination Framework. The goal is to iron out the problems Iraq has had in appointing the president and prime minister. The Kurds look to be power brokers in Iraq today.

This is partly a result of the KRG being a stable region. It also links Iraq to Turkey and Syria. In addition, the KRG has close ties to the US. US President Donald Trump has opposed Nouri al-Maliki becoming Iraq’s next prime minister.

Maliki was the prime minister in 2014 when part of Iraq was taken over by ISIS. He wants to return to the office. He is a Shi’ite and close to Iran.

The Kurdish leadership, often represented by the KDP’s Barzani family and the PUK’s Talabani family, has had complex ties with the Shi’ite parties. Back in 2017, Masoud Barzani, the KDP leader, led the Kurdistan region to an independence referendum.

This angered Baghdad and Iran. Qasem Soleimani was sent to talk to the PUK and work with Baghdad to thwart the Kurds’ power. After the referendum, Baghdad sent tanks into the city of Kirkuk, forcing the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters to flee.

The KDP at the time believed the PUK had done a secret deal with Soleimani and Baghdad. The PUK has often been portrayed as being closer to Iran.

However, years later, things have changed. The KDP and PUK, and also Baghdad, are sometimes able to work together, sometimes against one another. For instance, Baghdad had tried to prevent the KRG from exporting oil to Turkey. Now there is a deal.

US envoy meets Barzani amid Iraq and Syria talks

At the same time, in the wake of Trump's posting about Maliki, the US Charge d’Affaires in Iraq has been meeting with Iraqi politicians. Rudaw media in Erbil noted, “President Masoud Barzani on Sunday received in Erbil the Charge d’Affaires of the US Embassy in Iraq, Joshua Harris, where the two officials highlighted Erbil’s role in supporting a milestone integration agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).”

The report noted that in a statement on Facebook, the Barzani Headquarters quoted the US diplomat as conveying “the thanks and appreciation of the President and Government of the United States to President Barzani for the support and assistance he provided toward reaching the recent agreement between the Syrian [interim] government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).”

In another report by Rudaw, it is noted that “Abbas Radi, the Coordination Framework’s secretary-general, said in a statement on Sunday that a ‘high-level delegation’ from the bloc ‘will travel on Monday to the Kurdistan Region to meet Kurdish leaders’ in Erbil, a power base of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and in Sulaimani, the stronghold of its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).”

The report added that “Radi detailed that the delegation will comprise senior Coordination Framework leaders, including Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, Badr Organization head Hadi al-Ameri, and former Iraqi deputy speaker and al-Asas Coalition leader Mohsen al-Madalawi.”

The Kurdish leadership is clearly working as a power broker. It must balance many things. It must balance the close ties it has with the US with the discussions with the Shi’ite parties about who might be the prime minister. There may also be a trade-off regarding the presidency. With so many balls in the air, the Kurdish parties once again have a chance to showcase their importance in Iraq. 


Seth J. Frantzman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-885317

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