by Barry Rubin
In August 2011, 18 months ago, the regime of Muammar
al-Qadhafi was overthrown. Qadhafi was a terrible dictator; he was
overthrown only due to heavy NATO involvement in the revolt, including
engagement in direct aerial attacks on government positions.
Under Qadhafi, Libya often subverted the Middle East and Africa because
the dictator wanted to do so. Now, Libya subverts the Middle East and
Africa through his successor’s inaction.
Given Qadhafi’s long, repressive rule and Libya’s lack of democratic
development, the new government, installed by the United States and
certified in October 2012 election, faced a tough task. At least,
though, it has access to massive oil income. How well has it done?
Certainly, it is a moderate regime that seems well-intentioned. But
getting control over such a turbulent country with so many arms,
militias, radical Islamists, and regional disputes is difficult. Libya
is also a U.S. client and scene of the September 11, 2012, attack—much
of which remains mysterious—that killed four American officials.
There is no evidence that the Obama Administration has made a serious
effort to investigate this attack or to bring the perpetrators to
justice. In normal times, this would be shocking and a major focus of
mass media coverage and political debate on a daily basis. Yet this has
not happened.
Moreover, since it installed the Libyan government, nominally to protect
human rights there, the United States has some responsibility for its
conduct. The fact is that the Obama Administration has far more leverage
over the Libyan government than it does over counterparts in Iraq or
Afghanistan, when there was the massive, long-term presence of U.S.
troops.
Apparently, the main uses to which the U.S. government has put its
client in Libya is to contribute large sums to the (Muslim
Brotherhood-dominated) Syrian opposition group abroad and to permit arms
smuggling to it (though perhaps the government was helpless to stop
it).
A March 14, 2013, UN Security Council resolution 10939, based on a
report by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL),
evaluates the situation in Libya. Despite official optimism in its text,
and sympathy for the difficulty of the Libyan government’s task, the
conclusion is a clear one: Things are not going well.
Here is what the detailed report of the UNSMIL head, Tarek Mitri, said).
While the report praised the Libyan leadership’s efforts, he noted
that there is still no constitution drawn up by the elected General
National Congress. A report done by experts for the UN stated:
The National Transitional Council’s control has remained conditional, a
product of continual negotiation with autonomous militia and local
councils.
--A March 5 session of the Congress was disrupted by protestors threatening to use force to stop passage of legislation.
--There was an attempt to assassinate President el-Magariaf.
--A report by experts for the UN Security Council concluded: "While a
national army exists, the majority of military power rests with various
militias, mostly associated with local councils." These militias are
largely radical Islamists and one of them was responsible for the murder
of the four Americans. So one reason that the U.S. client regime in
Libya cannot investigate the murder of U.S. officials is that the same
regime is dependent on the murderers, both directly and through the
support that militia receives through its colleagues and the Benghazi
city council.
--The Al-Assima television station was stormed by armed men, kidnapping
the director and five of his staff, though they were later released.
--There was an attack on a church in Benghazi and other Christian targets.
--“Significant progress was hampered by weak State institutions and
security coordination mechanisms, as well as continuing mistrust of the
State’s security forces by many of those who fought during the
revolution, most of whom remained armed.”
--“Libya remained awash with unsecured weapons and munitions, which
posed a regional security risk given Libya’s porous borders.”
--Many prisoners from the civil war were still being held by militias in private and secret facilities, in effect as hostages.
--The country’s government still doesn’t have control over the eastern
and southern areas of the country allowing for cross-border attacks
against neighbors.
--The Security Resolution expressed, “Grave concern at continuing
reports of reprisals, arbitrary detentions without access to due
process, wrongful imprisonment, mistreatment, torture and extrajudicial
executions in Libya.”
--Egyptian Christian workers in Libya have been arrested and mistreated,
apparently purely on a religious basis. African migrants within Libya
have been seriously mistreated, apparently purely on a racial basis.
--At the earliest, work would only begin on the new constitution in the fall of 2013 and who knows when it will be adopted?
--In a remarkable use of diplomatic optimism, Mitri concluded that the
government is “dealing with political isolation with wisdom and
alertness.”
According to the Final report of the UN Security Council Panel of
Experts for 2013, here is what’s happening with Libyan weaponry:
--Egypt is facing threats to its national security by the increased
arming of [Islamist] terrorist , criminal, and anti-government groups,
mostly in the Sinai but also throughout the country.
--Weapons also go through Egypt to the Gaza Strip where it reaches Hamas
to use against Israel. An October 2012 military parade there displayed
such acquisitions as the Belgian-made F2000 and Russian-made AK-103
assault rifles.
--Syrian rebels have received arms through Turkey. The UN panel saw both
SA-24 and SA-7b MANPADS intercepted on a boarded ship as well as
anti-tank missiles (Metis-M, Konkurs-M and MILAN) and a variety of other weapons and ammunition. Here's a good article on Libya's Sa-24s and why they were not previously known to be in Libyan arsenals.
Other countries affected were Mali, the Niger, and to a lesser extent
Chad and Mauritania where fragile states are shaken by terrorism and
criminal activity using these weapons. Al-Qaida in North Africa and Boko
Haram in Nigeria have also obtained additional weapons for their
terrorist activities.
This is a description of an anarchic mess. It is important for U.S.
interests especially regarding Libya’s role as an arsenal for terrorist
and insurgent groups. The trouble, however, is that the Obama
Administration wants most of these arms to go to most of these groups.
The other reason for Libya’s importance is that there is no progress
being made on the Benghazi attacks on Americans. But perhaps the Obama
Administration wants no progress on investigations of this incident.
Source: http://rubinreports.blogspot.co.il/2013/04/libya-us-client-is-mess-whose-anarchy.html
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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