by Boaz Bismuth
The timing of French
President François Hollande's visit could not have been better. About a
week ago in Geneva, during the talks between the West and Iran, France
derailed what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called "a bad deal."
The warm reception
afforded to Hollande this week is designed to show Israel's gratitude;
but Jerusalem also hopes Hollande will be convinced to stay the course
when the nuclear talks with Iran resume this week.
A quick reminder: The
talks are expected to resume on Wednesday; if you were to believe the
sounds coming out of Washington and Moscow, there is a very good chance
that this session would culminate with a signed agreement.
That is, unless the language of Molière once again carries the day.
This week is going to
be crucial. Torpedoing a deal would be no easy task because the
Americans and the Russians want to have signing ceremony. In September,
French jets were already in booster-ignition mode when the
American-Russian dictate prevented an attack on Syria; as far as Russia
and the U.S. are concerned, it is better to sign a deal with evil
regimes than to flex your muscles. The talks will ultimately boil down
to a clash between core values on the one hand, and political gain on
the other hand. Netanyahu will ask Hollande to keep rooting for he moral
high ground by being a champion of values. After all, France has
copyrighted some of them -- "Liberté, égalité, fraternité." Israel and
the Gulf States expect France to show some fraternité when the powers
show up in Geneva.
People may have high
hopes for France, but Paris might have to fall in line with the
zeitgeist. Russia and China have never been keen on imposing tougher
sanctions on Iran. But the problem lies with the U.S., which has changed
its position since the talks commenced a decade ago. The Europeans
followed along (with the exception of France).
Washington caters to its own interests. (Just read Thomas Friedman's recent column in
The New York Times.) The U.S. may pursue its own agenda; there is
nothing inherently wrong with that -- except that it has repeatedly
pleaded with Israel, over many years, to have faith in Uncle Sam. The
New York Times, which has become one of the more vocal proponents of an
agreement, believes it is "not the time to squeeze Iran."
Over the weekend,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that the only thing left
to do is come up with the exact language of the agreement; this suggests
things are drawing to a close. Netanyahu will pay a visit to Moscow
shortly after meeting Hollande, and he will make sure to stay in touch
with the White House.
For Netanyahu, the
focus now is on damage control -- even if an agreement is reached, the
persistence and steadfastness on the part of the French would, at the
very least, make it into a somewhat better deal. Considering the current
state of the talks, that would qualify as an achievement.
The world is
preoccupied with its own problems; as far as Israel is concerned, Iran
is the main problem (and an existential threat), but world leaders have
to attend to what is happening in their neck of the woods. Look at
President Barack Obama, whose signature accomplishment -- the overhaul
of the healthcare system -- turned into an embarrassing fiasco.
Even Democratic
lawmakers have come up against the implementation of "Obamacare." One of
them, Democratic Congressman Nick Rahall (from West Virginia) said
Obama's conduct on the matter deserved an F-. If there was someone who
could promise Netanyahu that Iran's nuclear program would be as
successful as Obamacare, he would have no problem sleeping at night.
However, there is no guarantee that the two projects would share the
same fate.
Hollande's approval
ratings are less than flattering. The latest Huffington
Post-commissioned poll shows that support for the president dropped to
15 percent and that only 3% said his conduct as president was "very
good." Such a nose dive is unprecedented.
Perhaps Hollande should consider
staying here a bit longer. His poll numbers in Israel will likely be
through the roof in light of the French stance on Libya, Mali, Syria,
and most importantly, because of his efforts in Geneva.
Boaz Bismuth
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=6361
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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