Hamas is wearing itself out

by Prof. Eyal Zisser

Believing Israelis are desperate for calm, Hamas leaders felt they had nothing to lose by continuing to fire and that they would eventually be able to bring Israel to its knees and exact an exorbitant price for stopping the conflict. This tactic failed.

Hamas supporters carry the body of Raed Al-Attar, one of three top senior Hamas commanders killed in Israeli airstrikes | Photo credit: EPA

The tactic adopted by Hamas over the past two weeks was simple -- a willingness to conduct negotiations with Israel while it continues to shoot. Thus, simultaneously with the talks in Cairo and the occasional tactical acceptance of humanitarian lulls, Hamas refused to accept a full cease-fire and continued -- along with the other groups to whom it gives the green light -- to drizzle rockets down on Israeli communities. 

Hamas assumed that Israelis are exhausted and that Israel's leadership wants quiet at any cost. Hamas' leaders, therefore, believed they had nothing to lose by continuing to shoot, and that they would eventually be able to bring Israel to its knees and exact an exorbitant price for stopping the conflict. This tactic failed. 

Israel declined to dance to the beat of Hamas' drum and responded to the renewal of rocket attacks with force and precision that caught its leaders off guard. The assassination of the three senior Hamas military commanders on Thursday came on the heels of the attempted assassination of the group's military commander Mohammed Deif, and teaches us that Hamas is ultimately wearing itself out. 

Hamas is currently at a difficult crossroads. Continuing rocket fire and refusing a permanent and stable cease-fire will drag Gaza into a war of attrition that Hamas -- not Israel, contrary to its perception -- cannot endure. Every day that passes dwindles its rocket and missile stockpile and reduces the number of members in its high command. 

Meanwhile, the people of Israel have exhibited surprising maturity and stamina, granting the political echelon the room it needs to maneuver and impose Israel's conditions on Hamas. The Israeli public needs just a little more patience and restraint; the leadership needs to avoid making a mistake and blinking a moment too soon. 

Currently akin to a wounded, bloodied animal, Hamas can still hurt Israel, although it won't be enough to alter the outcome of events. Hamas fell into the very trap of attrition it had set for Israel, and now it is waiting for someone to extricate it -- perhaps Egypt, perhaps Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas or perhaps the Americans. This time, however, it will be on Israel's terms. 

Hamas will also pay a political price. The residents of Gaza will exact a price from the leadership for the disaster they brought upon them; even if it is late to come, come it will.

Prof. Eyal Zisser

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=19593

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