by Dr. Kobi Michael
The Islamic State group
has become a phenomenon with ripple effects that are felt in three
circles: local, regional and international. On the local level, Islamic
State is an existential threat to the residents of northern Syria,
specifically the Kurdish minority, as well as regions in north-eastern
Iraq. On the regional level, we have witnessed the enlistment of various
jihadist groups joining Islamic State. And on the international level
there is the ongoing phenomenon of foreigners volunteering to join
Islamic State, including Western nationals.
The international
coalition formed to fight Islamic State has increased the awareness of
the group and cannot truly eliminate the threat. Islamic State does not
have territorial continuity nor borders, it exists on "islands"
throughout a large swath of land. Its fighters move from place to place,
showcasing their brutality at every stop, an efficient tool in
suppressing the local populace, getting new volunteers and "convincing"
local groups to join it. Islamic State is also a savvy user of social
media networks when it comes to spreading its message.
The fact that groups
throughout the Middle East have joined arms with Islamic State,
including groups in Sinai and an extremely short-lived representation in
the Gaza Strip, is upsetting and could turn into a threat to Israel,
especially in the case of an incident in southern Syria.
What, if anything, can
diminish this threat? It is important to note that the numerous jihadist
groups are not homogenous, and there are differences, in some cases
significant, in their outlook. These differences will hamper the
coherence of Islamic State in the future; whenever a group joins Islamic
State, it splits in two, with one portion of it turning into a
different faction that opposes merging with Islamic State. Also, Islamic
State's ability to capture and hold territory is very limited. It is
faced with a series of obstacles: Turkey in the north, the Assad regime
in Syria in the west, Shiite Iraq and Saudi Arabia in the south, and
Jordan.
In this complex
situation, there is a gleaming opportunity to curb Islamic State's
spread and weaken the group. Creating a Kurdish state in northern Iraq
and Syria, connecting the two autonomous regions, could pose a
significant threat to Islamic State. The formation of a Kurdish country
could be seen as historic justice for the large oppressed ethnic
minority, one that is a natural ally to the West and Israel.
Maybe the Kurds' dire
situation in northern Syria could create new hope. The creation of a
Kurdish state could prompt the restructuring of the region's
architecture, as the old one falls apart. It is quite possible that the
establishment of a Kurdish state could lead to a federation-style
political body, which could be an alternative method of government,
based on ethnic nations as opposed to artificial ones, which demand
unity and compliance between rival ethnic groups.
Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu publicly supported the creation of an independent Kurdish
state. Perhaps now is the time for other world leaders to join that
call. Maybe a change to the regional makeup will yield new opportunities
for cooperation, regional security and perhaps some peace for an area
plagued by crises.
Dr. Kobi Michael is
a researcher and senior lecturer at Ariel University and senior analyst
at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10437
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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