Thursday, November 13, 2014

America's Weakness - Dr. Ronen A. Cohen



by Dr. Ronen A. Cohen


Everyone seems to be talking these days about negotiations with Iran and whether it will accept the terms set by the West. The Nov. 24 deadline is fast approaching. The very fact that we have been preoccupied with this question underscores the Iranians' superb negotiating skills. 

As far as Iran is concerned, the latest revelations about its nuclear program -- be it about its new aerial capabilities or the new deal with Russia involving the delivery of uranium for more reactors -- are nothing more than additional items on the agenda. Their counterparts across the negotiating table have all but officially conceded that whatever the outcome, Iran will continue to have a nuclear program. 

That America is having a hard time obtaining its objectives has not been lost on the Iranians. The Islamic republic has viewed Washington's conduct at the negotiating table as both amateur and reckless, and it is has been quick to seize on this. 

The American people have already expressed their misgivings about President Barack Obama's policies when they went to the polls last week, but the American leader still hopes a successful deal with Iran would help him recover domestically. The Iranian press, taking its cues from regime figures, has advocated a more proactive stance vis-a-vis Obama, primarily because Obama is perceived as weak. Iran has also warned that Obama should not get his hopes up for a more moderate Iranian leader. No Iranian president will be more accommodating than President Hassan Rouhani, the press has stressed, reminding him that the U.S. was unable to extract major concessions from his troublemaker-predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Iran also noted that if the talks end with no deal, the people will elect more radical elements to the presidency and the parliament, a scenario America wants to avoid. Tehran also noted that if the United States were to accept its terms, the ayatollahs would be poised to support the West as it battles the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria. Iran will have scored a double victory in such a case because it would be able to come to the rescue of Shiite communities all over the region -- in what would essentially be a U.S.-approved undertaking. 

The way Iran sees it, the future of the Middle East hinges on this deal because if the U.S. accepts its terms, Iran would be on its side as it tackles the many conflicts in the region (of course the ayatollahs did not list the specific conflicts they would help resolve, they just threw it out there in the open). 

A rigorous analysis of Iran's conduct under Rouhani would reveal a surprising degree of flexibility -- despite the deal with Russia and the latest developments in its drone program -- and this could have further ramifications. Although Rouhani has delivered on his campaign pledge to have the sanctions lifted, Iranians want this temporary respite to become perpetual relief. The Iranian economy has also improved. Rouhani does not want to see conditions worsen under his watch. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed his misgivings about the emerging deal, saying Israel will not accept a situation in which Iran is a threshold state (meaning it could become a military nuclear power on a dime). Surprisingly, he has added that Israel would counter Iran's nuclearization on its own, if such a need arises. It appears, then, that Netanyahu has not taken the military option off the table. The West has apparently never considered such an option, and it probably doesn't consider it relevant these days. 

It is hard to predict how the negotiations will unfold, but the Iranians are unlikely to blink first. If the West had Tehran's negotiating skills, it would have been able to present a more unified and intelligible position. But because of the intricate dynamics of vested interests -- primarily in Iran and Russia -- the U.S. was left to its own devices. 

Israel has been essentially left out. It has cried foul, warning against any deal with Iran. It is like a that biblical warning that everyone hears, but nobody listens to. Netanyahu has been defying the West's agenda. By implicitly threatening to go it alone, Israel has made it clear that it does not share the West's interests. 

Whatever happens, Iran will retain its nuclear capacity. There is no way around it. Israel has so far refused to accept this fact. This has taken an economic -- as well as a psychological -- toll on Israelis. Vast resources have been diverted to deal with this -- at the expense of domestic issues. It is time for the government to rethink its approach. 


Ronen A. Cohen is the head of the Israel and Middle Eastern Studies Department at Ariel University.

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10565

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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