by Dr. Ronen A. Cohen
Everyone seems to be
talking these days about negotiations with Iran and whether it will
accept the terms set by the West. The Nov. 24 deadline is fast
approaching. The very fact that we have been preoccupied with this
question underscores the Iranians' superb negotiating skills.
As far as Iran is
concerned, the latest revelations about its nuclear program -- be it
about its new aerial capabilities or the new deal with Russia involving
the delivery of uranium for more reactors -- are nothing more than
additional items on the agenda. Their counterparts across the
negotiating table have all but officially conceded that whatever the
outcome, Iran will continue to have a nuclear program.
That America is having a
hard time obtaining its objectives has not been lost on the Iranians.
The Islamic republic has viewed Washington's conduct at the negotiating
table as both amateur and reckless, and it is has been quick to seize on
this.
The American people
have already expressed their misgivings about President Barack Obama's
policies when they went to the polls last week, but the American leader
still hopes a successful deal with Iran would help him recover
domestically. The Iranian press, taking its cues from regime figures,
has advocated a more proactive stance vis-a-vis Obama, primarily because
Obama is perceived as weak. Iran has also warned that Obama should not
get his hopes up for a more moderate Iranian leader. No Iranian
president will be more accommodating than President Hassan Rouhani, the
press has stressed, reminding him that the U.S. was unable to extract
major concessions from his troublemaker-predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Iran also noted that if
the talks end with no deal, the people will elect more radical elements
to the presidency and the parliament, a scenario America wants to
avoid. Tehran also noted that if the United States were to accept its
terms, the ayatollahs would be poised to support the West as it battles
the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria. Iran will have scored a
double victory in such a case because it would be able to come to the
rescue of Shiite communities all over the region -- in what would
essentially be a U.S.-approved undertaking.
The way Iran sees it,
the future of the Middle East hinges on this deal because if the U.S.
accepts its terms, Iran would be on its side as it tackles the many
conflicts in the region (of course the ayatollahs did not list the
specific conflicts they would help resolve, they just threw it out there
in the open).
A rigorous analysis of
Iran's conduct under Rouhani would reveal a surprising degree of
flexibility -- despite the deal with Russia and the latest developments
in its drone program -- and this could have further ramifications.
Although Rouhani has delivered on his campaign pledge to have the
sanctions lifted, Iranians want this temporary respite to become
perpetual relief. The Iranian economy has also improved. Rouhani does
not want to see conditions worsen under his watch.
Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has expressed his misgivings about the emerging deal, saying
Israel will not accept a situation in which Iran is a threshold state
(meaning it could become a military nuclear power on a dime).
Surprisingly, he has added that Israel would counter Iran's
nuclearization on its own, if such a need arises. It appears, then, that
Netanyahu has not taken the military option off the table. The West has
apparently never considered such an option, and it probably doesn't
consider it relevant these days.
It is hard to predict
how the negotiations will unfold, but the Iranians are unlikely to blink
first. If the West had Tehran's negotiating skills, it would have been
able to present a more unified and intelligible position. But because of
the intricate dynamics of vested interests -- primarily in Iran and
Russia -- the U.S. was left to its own devices.
Israel has been
essentially left out. It has cried foul, warning against any deal with
Iran. It is like a that biblical warning that everyone hears, but nobody
listens to. Netanyahu has been defying the West's agenda. By implicitly
threatening to go it alone, Israel has made it clear that it does not
share the West's interests.
Whatever happens, Iran
will retain its nuclear capacity. There is no way around it. Israel has
so far refused to accept this fact. This has taken an economic -- as
well as a psychological -- toll on Israelis. Vast resources have been
diverted to deal with this -- at the expense of domestic issues. It is
time for the government to rethink its approach.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10565
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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