by Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 285EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent tensions on the Israel-Syria border, and the Sunni attacks in Sinai and Suez against the Egyptians may seem unrelated, but they actually have several factors in common. These attacks attest to the impending collapse of regimes and nations in the region, and prove that radical groups are ready to exploit this. Israel must therefore act quickly to recognize any major threat along its borders and thwart it. The strike against Hezbollah last week clarifies to Israel’s enemies that there are red lines, and anyone crossing them must take into account Israel’s response.
Recent
security events against Israeli soldiers on the northern border and
against the Egyptian military in Sinai are seemingly unrelated, but it
would still be wise to link them together.
The
tensions on the Israel-Syria border began when a delegation of senior
Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders visited the Golan Heights. The
successful targeting of that delegation resulted in Hezbollah’s attack
on IDF troops in Shebaa farms, in which two soldiers were killed and
seven others were wounded. The attacks in Sinai and Suez, in which 25
Egyptian military personnel were killed and 58 others were wounded
including civilians, security and medical personnel, were carried out by
the Islamic State group’s Egyptian wing.
The
incident on the northern border was carried out by Shiites, and the
attacks in Egypt were the work of Sunnis. Israel is their enemy in the
north, and Egypt is their enemy in the south.
Although
these incidents were different, , they have several things in common –
they attest to the disintegration of regional regimes and states, and
prove that radical groups operating in areas where the actual regime has
become defunct are waiting in the wings, ready to exploit this
disintegration.
Israel
cannot create order out of the Middle East’s characteristic chaos. It
can (and should) recognize the most dire threats and neutralize them.
This is what Egypt has been doing – focusing on the elements threatening
to undermine the Cairo regime and on the terrorist groups running
rampant in Sinai, not on the regional wars outside its borders.
Cutting
the Gaza Strip off from Sinai by creating a substantial buffer zone and
razing the smuggling tunnels running between Egypt and Gaza, are part
of the extensive Egyptian effort to curtail terrorism. Israel benefits
from these efforts, but Cairo is motivated solely by Egyptian interests.
Israel’s
alleged strike in Syria bears the same characteristics. Since Iran and
Hezbollah are trying to exploit the governmental vacuum in the area, the
strike was meant to clarify that there are red lines, and anyone
crossing them must take into account that Israel will respond.
Israel
cannot and should not create order out of the chaos in Syria, nor will
it have any say in whoever eventually wins the civil war raging there,
but it must recognize any major threat as it manifests and thwart it.
Those who fail to clearly mark their red lines today may find themselves powerless should these threats take full form tomorrow,
and it is precisely in the midst of the volatile dynamics of the world
we live in that Israel must clearly define what it will and will not
abide. Egypt sobered up to the situation in Sinai at the 11th hour –
Israel cannot afford to do the same in the Golan Heights.
A
preemptive strike meant to generate deterrence has its risks and
therefore may come with a price. This was the case on the northern
border, when Hezbollah retaliated over a move attributed to Israel. It
had to do so to save face after the public blow it was dealt the week
before, but its method of choice – an attack in an area devoid any
civilian communities, and against a military convoy – indicates caution.
Hezbollah has no interest in an escalation and it has done everything
in its power to prevent one, despite its inevitable response.
The
fundamental elements at the heart of Hezbollah’s prudence have remained
unchanged. The war it is fighting is Syria has strategic, even
existential, importance for the Shiite organization, as without Syria at
its back it would struggle to sustain itself in Lebanon. Syria is
Hezbollah’s link to Iran, and all the aid the Islamic republic lends it
arrived in Lebanon via Syria. Damascus itself is responsible for a
considerable part of Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and Hezbollah
knows that as far as Beirut is concerned, it has no right to drag the
Lebanese people into a war that is the result of its exploits in Syria.
Hezbollah
and its chiefs, in Lebanon and elsewhere, still have a vivid memory of
the results of their 2006 cross-border attack, which propelled into the
Second Lebanon War, and they have no desire to re-live the experience.
Regional
realities have become less predictable and more violent than before,
and their dynamics are changing much more rapidly. Israel must decide
where to draw its red lines, and it must be willing to pay a price for
these lines if need be.
This article was originally published in Israel Hayom on February 1, 2015
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaacov Amidror is the Greg and Anne Rosshandler Senior Fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and former national security advisor to the Prime Minister.
Source: http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/line-sand/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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