Obama’s Fatal Nuclear Deal - Majid Rafizadeh

by Majid Rafizadeh

Khamenei knew that he could utilize a nuclear agreement, on the Islamic Republic’s terms, as a legitimate international cover to continue pursuing his nuclear ambition in a”legal” framework, make the Islamic Republic a nuclear state, restore the economy, export more oil, and gain from an increased trade and foreign investment.

When President Obama was elected, he promised that he would free the world from nuclear weapons. In reality, and on the contrary, his policies are setting a dangerous stage for hyper-proliferation particularly in one of the most dangerous region of the world: the Middle East.

Before the nuclear talks between the Islamic Republic and the six world powers (known as the P5+1:the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China) began, numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions demanded that the Islamic Republic has to put an end to its nuclear program enrichment.

The economic sanctions brought the clerical government of Iran to its knees as well as to the negotiating table. The shrewd, ideologue, anti-American, and anti-Semitic politician and religious leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, realized that he needed an agreement with the great powers to divert the economic sanctions and avoid military intervention. In addition, the Supreme Leader was cognizant of the fact that he was ruling over a shaky legitimacy and any uprising would endanger his hold on power if his regime is not a nuclear state.

But more fundamentally, Khamenei knew that he could utilize a nuclear agreement, on the Islamic Republic’s terms, as a legitimate international cover to continue pursuing his nuclear ambition in a”legal” framework, make the Islamic Republic a nuclear state, restore the economy, export more oil, and gain from an increased trade and foreign investment.

These are the key reasons that, throughout the nuclear negotiation the Islamic Republic stood firms on its demands and began extracting as much concessions as it can from the major player: the United States.

Obama Giving Away Too Much

The negotiations began with the premise of the numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions that the Islamic Republic should halt its nuclear enrichment program. President Obama put several red lines for the Islamic Republic, but the ruling mullah breached the lines with no reaction from the White House. To save face, President Obama began making concessions and an unprecedented level of compromises.

At the first stage, President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry allowed Iran to maintain the right to enrich uranium. Later, President Obama gave Iran the right to keep several hundreds of its advanced centrifuges. The number later increased to couple of thousands, four thousands, and currently it is up to 6000.

In addition, President Obama made a concession to permit the Islamic Republic to maintain its heavy water plutonium reactor in Arak and continue constructing it soon.

Moreover, Obama and Kerry continued to make inaccurate statements to the public that Iran is “living up” to the requirements of the interim deal. According to the last week report from the IAEA, Iran still denies providing full access to information and its nuclear sites. Last week, the IAEA reported its concern, stating that the agency “remains concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military-related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”  The IEAE added that it can not conclude that Iran’s nuclear activities are peaceful and that there are no “undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran”.

Moreover, one of the conditions of the interim deal stated that  Iran should convert any enriched uranium it produces from hexafluoride into oxide after January 20, 2014. Iran has not complied with this provision although the deadline has already passed.

The Ayatollah’s Sunset

All the compromises being made by the Obama administration were still not enough. The Islamic Republic kept pushing for more. And finally, there is some news of a Sunset clause and putting a limit on the agreement being proposed by the Obama administration.

The “Sunset” concession and time limit on the final agreement will be the most crucial victory that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Rouhani administration have scored during the negotiations. The sunset period will allow the Islamic Republic to resume enriching uranium at a level they desire, spin as many advanced centrifuges as they want, make its reactors fully operational, build new heavy water reactors, produce as much fuels as it desires for its reactors, and maintain higher uranium enrichment capability with no restriction after the period of the agreement. In fact, Mr. Khamenei needs such an agreement which will allow Iran to enrich uranium, lift the sanctions, and empower Iran simultaneously. In other words, after the agreement (10 years or less) Iran will be rewarded with an unrestricted industrialized, high level enrichment and nuclear program. In the world of geopolitics, 10 years agreements are considered very brief.

Iran is already too satisfied with the current terms of the nuclear deal. Even, with the current deal, the Islamic Republic has obtained all the concessions it needs ensuring international legitimacy to become a nuclear state, rejoin the international community, continue supporting the Syrian regime and other proxies in the regime, increase its oil exports, and restore its economy fully.

But wait, Iran is playing more game with the United States and pushing for more. As the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told the Council on Foreign Relations “Let’s establish a mechanism for a number of years. Not 10, not 15 — but I’m willing to live with less. ”

In other words, the Sunset condition will grant Iran the legality and international legitimacy become a nuclear state after the 10-year period  assuming that Tehran will not covertly violate the rules during the agreement and become a nuclear state beforehand. After this period, the international community has no legal mechanism to stop Iran. This will lead to nuclear hyper-proliferation across the region. Not only would President Obama have not stopped the ruling clerics from obtaining a nuclear bomb, but he would have also encouraged other countries to go nuclear due to his deal.


Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-American political scientist and scholar, is president of the International American Council and serves on the board of the Harvard International Review at Harvard University. Rafizadeh is also a former senior fellow at the Nonviolence International Organization based in Washington, DC and is a member of the Gulf project at Columbia University. He can be reached at rafizadeh@fas.harvard.edu. Follow Rafizadeh at @majidrafizadeh.

Source: http://www.frontpagemag.com/2015/majid-rafizadeh/obamas-fatal-nuclear-deal/

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