by Burak Bekdil
If a simple majority of Turks vote "yes" in a national referendum on proposed constitutional amendments in April, Erdogan will effectively consolidate the power of three legislative bodies into one powerful executive office: himself.
In
Binali Yildirim (right), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has
found a prime minister enthusiastic about an all-powerful presidency.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's one-man show goes on; he may soon progress from effectively
having absolute authority to actually having absolute authority. He
would apparently like to put an official seal on his increasingly
autocratic regime. If a simple majority of Turks vote "yes" in a
national referendum on proposed constitutional amendments in April,
Erdogan will effectively consolidate the power of three legislative
bodies into one powerful executive office: himself. He would then be
installed as a leader with virtually unlimited authority.
Although
the current constitution grants him largely symbolic powers, Erdogan
has acted as the effective head of the executive branch since he became
Turkey's first elected president in August 2014. He has explicitly --
and, it appears, happily -- violated the constitution by acting as an
absolute head of government. In May 2016, he forced Ahmet Davutoglu, his
own confidant and prime minister, out of office; Erdogan evidently
suspected that the man was not working hard enough to push for the
absolute executive presidential system Erdogan has evidently been
craving. Only seven months earlier, Davutoglu had won a parliamentary
election with 49.5% of the national vote.
Erdogan
replaced Davutoglu with Binali Yildirim, who has proven to be more
enthusiastic about terminating the prime minister's office and
transferring all powers to an all-powerful president. As Erdogan's (and
Yildirim's) ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lacked the
parliamentary majority to put any constitutional amendment to public
vote, the proposed changes therefore required support from the
opposition benches. (A minimum of 330 votes is required in the country's
550-member assembly, as opposed to 317 seats controlled by the AKP.)
The changes will make Erdogan simultaneously head of government, head of state, and head of the ruling party.
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A
year ago, that would have looked unimaginable. But a nationalist
opposition party, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), made a U-turn
from its public pledges of "never letting Erdogan become the executive
president," and decided to support the reform bill. Political observers
are still trying to figure out what may have pushed the MHP from one
extreme to the other; there is not yet a clear explanation.
Erdogan's
"Turkish-style presidency" is already a presidency with too much power
held by one man. If approved in the referendum, the changes
will make Erdogan head of government, head of state and head of the
ruling party -- all at the same time. Erdogan would have the power to
appoint cabinet ministers without requiring a confidence vote from
parliament, propose budgets and appoint more than half the members of
the nation's highest judicial body. He would also have the power to
dissolve parliament, impose states of emergency and issue decrees.
Alarmingly,
the proposed system lacks the safety mechanisms of checks and balances
that exist in other countries such as the United States. It would
transfer powers traditionally held by parliament to the presidency,
thereby rendering the parliament merely a ceremonial, advisory body.
Several brawls recently broke out in Turkey's parliament during debate on a bill for constitutional amendments.
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With support from MHP, the reform bill passed in parliament with 339 votes in favor -- nine more than required to put it to a national vote.
The
way the Turkish parliament debated the bill looked like a prelude to
the way Erdogan's totally autocratic presidency will fuel tensions in
the months ahead. Several rounds of fist-fighting broke out. Brawls were
daily scenes in parliamentary sessions. Screaming matches and physical
altercations sent lawmakers to hospitals.
In
one instance, an independent female lawmaker handcuffed herself to the
microphone on the lectern for an hour to protest the presidential bill.
Deputies from the government benches tried to remove her, but opposition
deputies sprang to her defense while punches and kicks were exchanged.
The assembly saw its first-ever brawl between female lawmakers,
who punched one another and pulled one another's hair. One female
opposition deputy was thrown to the floor and her prosthetic artificial
arm knocked off, injuring her severely.
The proposed system makes parliament a largely ceremonial, advisory body.
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Nevertheless,
Erdogan is happy. He will soon launch his "yes" campaign together with
the nationalists in the opposition (MHP). He is confident that he will
win -- he has not lost a single election or referendum since he came to
power in November 2002. Observers expect that a clear majority of his
party loyalists (around 40% of 50%) will vote "yes" in addition to
around half of the nationalists in opposition (around 6% of 12%). That
makes a combined 46% of the vote. Some of the splinter Islamist parties
and non-AKP voters who favor a presidential system, too, are expected to
vote "yes," lifting the pro-Erdogan vote to a range of 50% to 55%.
There is a sizeable group of "undecided" whose preferences may be
influenced by Erdogan's huge propaganda machinery or by the argument
that a strong president would strengthen Turkey as it confronts a broad
array of internal and external security threats.
The
opposition (Kurds and secular and liberal Turks), on the other hand,
looks fragmented and helpless in telling the masses that reforms would
concentrate excessive powers in the hands of a leader who has
increasingly displayed authoritarian tendencies. There are concerns that
the opposition, under the state of emergency Erdogan's government
declared in 2016, may find it too difficult effectively and freely to
campaign against the proposed amendments.
Even
in the unlikely event of a win for the "no" campaign it will not be the
end of the world for Erdogan. He would be bruised, perhaps badly. But
he would play another card: a snap election. He would win new
parliamentary elections and push for similar amendments, once again
trying his chances. He would have nothing to lose. He appears to rely on
popular support keeping him afloat.
From
a policy-making point of view, however, a "yes" or a "no" vote will not
fundamentally change the dynamics under which Turkey is being ruled. At
the moment, Erdogan is effectively the absolute ruler. If he wins the
vote, he becomes actually the absolute ruler. If he loses, he remains effectively the absolute ruler until he tries again to become the absolute ruler.
Burak Bekdil is an Ankara-based political analyst and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Source: http://www.meforum.org/6515/erdogan-grab-for-absolute-power
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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