by Clifford D. May
-- this country's rulers have adopted a plan to reform if not transform their kingdom -- the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds
RIYADH -- Saudi Arabia
is changing. When government officials here tell you that, you take it
with an oversized grain of salt. But when Saudi human rights activists
say the same, you pay attention.
"Baby steps" is how one
bright young woman phrases it. She has studied abroad and recently
become an attorney, one of only about 120 women admitted to the bar in
this gender-segregated country.
Female attorneys in
Saudi Arabia can practice only family law. But, she believes, over time
other doors will open. "There is at least an acknowledgement that we
need to evolve," she adds. More than that, this country's rulers have
adopted a plan to reform if not transform their kingdom -- the heart of
the Arab and Islamic worlds.
Self-interest is
generally the sturdiest pillar on which to build. King Salman bin
Abdul-Aziz Al Saud and other royals -- in particular, the young and
dynamic deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud -- understand
that their extraordinary wealth and that of their country derives from a
single source: the oil being extracted and sold to industrious peoples
abroad.
When that oil runs out,
or when competing means of producing energy diminish its value, what is
to prevent the desert from reclaiming Saudi Arabia's palaces and
mansions, its wide boulevards, its Rolex, Armani and Porsche outlets,
its gourmet restaurants and elegant mosques?
Who will pay the
salaries of the 6 millions Saudis (out of a total of 20 million) who now
hold not-terribly-demanding government jobs, along with the 10 million
foreign "guest workers" who, for a relative pittance, do the work Saudi
citizens don't want to do? Nor is it inconceivable that competition for
shrinking resources could lead to the kinds of conflicts now raging
elsewhere in the region.
The blueprints for
Saudi reform were unveiled last year under the title Vision 2030, which
includes the National Transformation Program. Within less than a
generation, subsidies and government jobs are to be trimmed, corruption
and bureaucracy effectively combatted. A fast-growing private sector is
to give rise to new industries and jobs. People would be freer -- which
is not to say they would be free.
Rather, Vision 2030
imagines Saudi Arabia becoming "a tolerant country with Islam as its
constitution and moderation as its method. We will welcome qualified
individuals from all over the world and will respect those who have come
to join our journey and our success." In other words, Saudi Arabia is
to become a startup nation instead of a pump-out kingdom.
For that to happen, the
economy, culture and, not least, the state religion -- an austere
interpretation of Islam commonly known as Wahhabism -- will have to
loosen up a bit. Last year, the Mutaween, the Saudi religious police --
enforcers of dress codes, gender apartheid and mandatory observance of
prayer times -- were stripped of their power to arrest. Today, they may
only observe and report transgressors to the regular police.
Among the country's
foreign workers are at least a million Roman Catholics who are
prohibited from establishing churches or praying in public. But the
authorities now tend to turn a blind eye to small groups worshipping in
their homes. Granting permission should not be confused with
guaranteeing rights. "If even 10 people are in my home," one Christian
worker says, "there is a fear that there will be a knock on the door."
Internationally, too,
changes have occurred. During the 1980s and 1990s, Saudi Arabia took
what many here now acknowledge was a giant step in the wrong direction.
Following Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution and, that same year, the siege
of Mecca, a bloody uprising by what might be called ultra-Wahhabis,
members of the royal family felt compelled to demonstrate their
commitment to jihad. Billions of dollars were spent to build mosques and
madrassas overseas and to send infidel-hating, terrorism-inciting
clerics to preach and teach in them.
Among the results was
al-Qaida, which one Saudi intellectual candidly called "a Frankenstein's
monster." Many Americans have not forgotten that 19 of the 22 "violent
extremists" who attacked the United States on September 11, 2001 were
Saudi citizens. Do some wealthy Saudis continue to fund jihadists?
Almost certainly. But American diplomats believe the government is now
out of that business.
Though Israel is a
neighbor most Saudis view with little sympathy, the continuing carnage
in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan and other reaches of the
Islamic world seems to have made an impression. Few sophisticated Saudis
still call the Jewish state the root of all evil. They are acutely
aware that the Islamic Republic of Iran poses an existential threat to
both nations. And officials from both nations are now said to be quietly
cooperating on intelligence and security.
The royals also are
taking pains to encourage the powerful Wahhabi establishment to moderate
and adopt a more liberal interpretation of Shariah, Islamic law. These
efforts have not been entirely successful. Jews and Christians continue
to be denounced from some Saudi pulpits. Atheists are viewed as
terrorists. And the textbooks used in schools here and abroad have not
been completely purged of passages intended to inspire animosity toward
nonbelievers. The best one can say is that there has been some
improvement.
If Vision 2030
succeeds, Saudi Arabia will become more prosperous, more stable and less
brutally repressive compared to most Muslim nations of the Middle East.
The Saudis would work closely with Americans and others to oppose
jihadists and to frustrate, perhaps even defeat, Iranian imperialism.
Reform, like politics,
is the art of the possible. At this fraught moment in history, is there a
realistic alternative that would not be substantially worse for Saudi
Arabia, the U.S., the region and the world?
Clifford D. May is president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a columnist for The Washington Times.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=18465
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