by Dr. James M. Dorsey
Some two-thirds of those surveyed felt that religion played too large a role, up from 50% four years ago. Seventy-nine percent argued that religious institutions need to be reformed, while half said that religious values are holding the Arab world back.
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| Arab Youth Survey logo via asdaa bcw |
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,187, May 30, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A
recent annual survey of Arab youth provides insights that should inform
autocrats’ quest for social and economic reform. The survey also
suggests, as do the intermittent anti-government protests that continue
to erupt in different parts of the Arab world, that Western and Middle
Eastern interests would be better served by more nuanced US and European
approaches toward the region’s regimes.
Results of a recent annual survey of Arab youth concerns about their future suggest
that Arab autocracies have yet to deliver expected public services and
goods or explain autocratic efforts to promote nationalism. They
indicate that jobs and social freedoms are more important to young Arabs
than political rights.
Western governments have so far uncritically
supported social and economic reform efforts rather than more forcefully
seek to ensure that they bear fruit, and have been lax in pressuring
regimes to curb excesses of political repression.
Critics charge that the survey by Dubai-based public relations firm asda’a bcw,
which focused on the 18-24 age group, was flawed because it gave a
greater weighting to views in smaller Gulf states as opposed to the
region’s more populous countries, such as Egypt. The survey used small
samples of up to 300 people and did not include Qatar, Syria, or Sudan.
The results are a mixed bag for Arab autocrats.
They suggest that squaring the circle between the requirements of reform
and youth expectations could prove to be regimes’ Achilles’ heel.
A majority of youth, weaned on decades of reliance
on government for jobs and social services, say governments that are
unilaterally rewriting social contracts and rolling back aspects of the
cradle-to-grave welfare state have so far failed to deliver.
Even more problematic, young Arabs expect
governments to provide for them at a time when reform requires
streamlining of bureaucracies, reduced state control, and stimulation of
the private sector.
A whopping 78% of those surveyed said it was the
government’s responsibility to provide jobs. An equal number expected
energy to be subsidized, 65% complained that governments were not doing
enough to support young families, and 60% expected government to supply
housing.
By the same token, 78% expressed concern about the
quality of education on offer, including 70% of those in the Gulf. Yet
80% of those in the Gulf said local education systems prepared them for
jobs of the future as opposed to a regional total of 49% who felt
education was lagging. Nonetheless, only 38% of those surveyed in the
Gulf said they would opt for local higher education.
There appeared to be a similar gap between the foreign and regional policies of governments and youth aspirations.
Assertive policies, particularly by Gulf states,
that have fueled regional conflicts, including wars in Libya, Syria, and
Yemen, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, and the two-year-old diplomatic and
economic boycott of Qatar, run counter to a desire among a majority of
those surveyed to see an end to the disputes. Like their Saudi, Emirati,
and Bahraini rulers, 67% of young Arabs see Iran as an enemy.
The survey also suggests that the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, contrary to common wisdom, is an issue
that resonates. With 79% of those surveyed saying they are concerned
about the dispute, the question arises whether the Gulf’s rapprochement
with Israel and support for Donald Trump’s peace plan enjoys popular support.
The suggestion that Gulf policies towards the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict may not be wholeheartedly supported is
bolstered by the fact that the number of people surveyed this year who
view the US as an enemy rose to 59% compared to 32% five years ago.
Similarly, Arab leaders’ reliance on religion as a
regime legitimizer and efforts to steer Islam in the direction of
apolitical quietism are proving to be a double-edged sword and one
probable reason why men like
Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman have sought to reduce the role
of the religious establishment by promoting hyper-nationalism.
Some two-thirds of those surveyed felt that
religion played too large a role, up from 50% four years ago.
Seventy-nine percent argued that religious institutions need to be
reformed, while half said that religious values are holding the Arab
world back.
Publication of the survey coincided with the release by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) of its 2019 report.
The report designated Saudi Arabia as one of the world’s “worst
violators” of religious freedoms, highlighting its discrimination
against Shiite Muslims and Christians.
“Shi[ite] Muslims in Saudi Arabia continue to face
discrimination in education, employment, and the judiciary, and lack
access to senior positions in the government and military,” the 234-page
report said.
Leaders of the United Arab Emirates, accused by human rights groups of systematic violations,
are likely to see a silver lining in the survey and a reconfirmation of
their policy of economic and relative social liberalism coupled with
absolute political control.
Forty-four percent of those surveyed named the UAE
as their preferred country as opposed to less than 22% opting for
Canada, the US, Turkey, or Britain.
In a white paper accompanying the survey,
Afshin Molavi, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the
Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies,
concluded that the survey showed that “the demands and dreams of young
Arabs are neither radical nor revolutionary” and that they were unlikely
to “fall for the false utopias or ‘charismatic’ leaders their parents
fell for.”
Jihad Azour, the International Monetary Fund’s top
Middle East person, said in his contribution to the white paper that
“what is needed is a new social contract between MENA (Middle East and
North Africa) governments and citizens that ensures accountability,
transparency and a commitment to the principle that no one is left
behind… The latest youth survey makes clear that we have a long way to
go.”
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/arabs-survey-religion/
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