by Oded Granot
Israeli officials are disturbed not only by Washington's willingness to rejoin the nuclear deal without any information about Iran's true intentions, as well as without a contingency plan should the talks fail.
A week before the Iran nuclear talks resume in Vienna, IAEA director Rafael Grossi, a very worried man, is slated to arrive in Tehran. The words "very worried" are repeated in two IAEA reports.
The worrying conclusion from the documents is that Iran had been adept at exploiting the time that has passed since former US President Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 to shorten the time it will take it to develop a nuclear bomb, while violating all its commitments. Iran has enriched uranium to levels higher than what it is allowed to; manufactured and installed high-speed centrifuges; and more. If the 2015 nuclear deal was planned to keep Iran at least one year away from amassing enough enriched uranium to build a single bomb, that distance has been shortened and now stands at only three weeks. Experts think it will take Iran one and a half to two years to build a bomb with a nuclear warhead.
Iran still hasn't hit breakthrough on a bomb, and maybe hasn't decided whether or not to do so, but it has already become a nuclear threshold state. Along with the enriched uranium it has stockpiled and its high-speed centrifuges, it has also acquired both technology and experience over the years – and these will be difficult if not impossible to destroy.
There is a direct link between the IAEA chief's visit to Tehran and the nuclear talks that are supposed to begin again next week in Vienna. The issue of oversight at Iran's nuclear facilities is a major obstacle in the discussion about reviving the deal.
In private conversations, American functionaries admit that the Iranians are continuing to hide not only what is happening at its nuclear facilities, but also their intentions for the Vienna talks. Do they really want to reach a deal, or merely play for time? Will they insist on going back to the original agreement, which has been emptied of meaning, or will they agree to a stronger, long-term agreement (unlikely)? And of course, will they insist on sanctions being lifted first, with a promise they will not be reinstated (which would prevent any deal), or will they agree to compromise?
The personality of the head of the Iranian delegation to the talks also lowers expectations. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani is the opposite of Mohammed Zarif: he is conservative, radical, and close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who opposes the nuclear deal. He does not speak fluent English, and is not trying to prevent a smiling countenance.
In these circumstances, Israeli officials are disturbed by Washington's desire to return to the Vienna talks not only without actual information about the Iranians' true intentions, but also without any contingency plan should the talks fail. The Biden administration's declarations that "all options are on the table" are weak language, and require Israel to continue to prepare for the eventually that it will have to operate alone.
Oded Granot
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/iran-is-a-nuclear-threshold-state-and-israel-is-on-its-own/
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