by Keren Setton
Experts warn instability post-Assad poses risks, with extremist groups gaining ground and potential long-term Israeli presence.
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Israel’s concern that the instability in Syria could spill over into its territory has led it to major action in the neighboring country, essentially opening an additional front in the multi-front war it has been engaged in for fourteen months.
Over the weekend, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took control of the demilitarized buffer zone in Syria that was established as part of a 1974 cease-fire reached between the two hostile countries.
In that buffer zone is Mt. Hermon's highest peak, the highest point on the east coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
“The territory guarantees strategic control over the whole southern Syrian arena, which generates an immediate threat to Israel,” Kobi Michael, a researcher at INSS and the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, told The Media Line. “There is no higher vantage point than the Syrian part of the Golan.”
Power in Syria is now de-centralized, with the country fragmented between several groups, most of them extreme Islamist, potentially posing a new array of threats to Israel.
“Israel is not looking to apply sovereignty to the buffer zone, but rather to militarily control the area in order to prevent danger under conditions of instability,” Michael assessed.
Israeli officials have emphasized the tactical nature of the move, which also likely stems from the trauma from the surprise attack executed by the Hamas terrorist attack on its border with Gaza last year.
“For decades, the Israeli security establishment considered the border with Syria its quietest and closely associated to the Assad regime,” Dr. Joel Parker, a researcher from the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line. “Assad is the devil Israel knows, but at the same time, with the de-facto commitment to non-aggression with Syria, Israel watched it build up military abilities, including the development of chemical weapons, to levels that were far beyond when the armistice line was created.”
In 2007, however, Israel carried out an airstrike against a suspected Syrian nuclear site. Years later, it took responsibility for the attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would not allow its neighbors to develop nuclear weapons. Syria denied the site was a nuclear reactor.
Taking advantage of internal chaos
Now, Israel is taking advantage of the internal chaos. The Israeli military swiftly entered Syria, apparently reaching deep into its territory and taking control of the peak of Mount Hermon, which allows for an advantageous view of both Syria and Lebanon. Reportedly, the army also conducted airstrikes in Syria against sites that stored unconventional weapons, air-defense systems, and navy vessels. Video on social media showed explosions in various cities and pictures of alleged Syrian Air Force bases destroyed.
“This is an unprecedented event in which the Israeli army has the ability to completely destroy an enemy army without a war,” said Michael. “This opportunity is being used wisely by Israel in order to ensure a better reality.”
The IDF only confirmed it had entered the buffer zone and was holding positions there, denying reports its forces were approaching the capital, Damascus. This offensive has so far gone without a response from Syria or any of the factions currently holding control.
Israel captured part of the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Mideast war. It annexed the territories in a move that was considered illegal by most of the international community, which still considers the territory Syrian. In 2019, the US departed from decades of policy and recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the territory. The other part of the mountainous area remained in Syria’s control. UN forces have patrolled the buffer zone since the 1974 agreement.
“The Golan Heights will be an inseparable part of the State of Israel forever,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a press conference he held on Monday night, indicating his country’s intentions.
Netanyahu defined the movement into the buffer zone as temporary, but in the Middle East, what often begins as temporary often becomes permanent. The UN said the move violated international agreements. Arab leaders condemned it, and a spokesperson for the US State Department said that while it expected the move to be temporary, the US understood Israeli motives.
“The Syrian army abandoned its positions in the area … which potentially creates a vacuum that could have been filled by terrorist organizations that would threaten the state of Israel…every country has the right to take action against terrorist organizations, and every country, I think, would be worried about a possible vacuum that could be filled by terrorist organizations on its border, especially in volatile times, as we obviously are in right now in Syria,” said Matthew Miller.
Israel is concerned that the different groups that are now clamoring for power in Syria after the regime of President Bashar Assad collapsed will be hostile. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who led the insurgency against Assad, is a former Al-Qaida terrorist who claims he has reformed and abandoned extremism. Classified by the US as a terrorist and previously imprisoned for his activities, he has been associated with the extremist Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Al-Golani leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), or the Organization for Liberating Syria. Videos on social media earlier this week showed HTS members vowing to help Palestinians in Gaza act against Israel and liberate Jerusalem from Israeli control.
“What is known about al-Golani poses red flags for Israel,” said Parker. “He is the new kid on the block, associated with many jihadist operatives in the world, which has access to almost unlimited manpower. His charisma, his jihadi ideology, and his current control in Syria have Israel wanting him not to have access to chemical weapons, ballistic missiles, and even helicopters.”
When the swift insurgency began, the Israeli army already put its forces on high alert, sending reinforcements.
“There is no way to tell where this is going,” said Michael. “Israel could be facing a difficult reality that will force it to stay and broaden its hold on territory, perhaps even act more forcefully in order to pre-empt danger.”
The collapse of the Assad regime is one of the most significant shifts to occur in the Middle East in decades. While Israel and Syria were sworn enemies under both Bashar Assad and his father, there was stability in the relationship, which has now been rattled. While this has removed Iranian presence from Israel’s border, it could be replaced by extreme Islam, which is also not favorable to the Jewish state.
Keren Setton
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-832988
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